Match Analysis: Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-23
- Time: 12:10 AM UTC
- Location: FedExForum
Game Overview
The NBA match between the Memphis Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans is a tightly contested rivalry with an all-time regular season record nearly even at 44-42 in favor of the Pelicans over 86 games. Both teams have shown similar points per game against each other historically, averaging about 101.6-101.7, indicating balanced offensive and defensive clashes. The Grizzlies hold home-court advantage playing at the FedExForum, a factor often benefiting their performance.
Key Factors to Consider
- Recent form favors Memphis slightly; they have won 3 of the last 5 matches against New Orleans, scoring 104.4 points per game while allowing 117.2. The Pelicans won 2 of their last 5 matches, scoring 107.2 points but conceding 126.8 points per game, indicating defensive weakness. Memphis also has a better spread performance with a 60% ATS win rate versus the Pelicans' 20%.
- The teams have an evenly split record of 44 wins each across 88 total games since 2005 with close scoring margins, demonstrating this matchupβs competitive balance. Head-to-head recent matches show Memphis has a slight edge including a 5-1 win record in their last six encounters.
- No specific injury updates available from current data. Both teams are expected to field their standard rotations.
- Playing at home gives Memphis the environmental and crowd support advantage. The match timing early in the season may see teams still finding rhythm, potentially causing variability in performance.
- Both teams will seek early season momentum; Memphis aims to defend home turf against a historically well-matched rival while the Pelicans want to improve their defensive lapses evident in recent games.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Memphis Grizzlies: -180, New Orleans Pelicans: 150 | Memphis Grizzlies | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Memphis Grizzlies: -3.5 -115, New Orleans Pelicans: +3.5 -105 | Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 236.5 -110, Under: 236.5 -110 | Under 236.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Memphis Grizzlies -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 236.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 236.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the home advantage, recent form, and superior spread performance, Memphis Grizzlies are favored to win this game by a narrow margin.
Predicted Score: Memphis Grizzlies 119 – New Orleans Pelicans 113