Match Analysis: Liberty Flames vs New Mexico State Aggies – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-14
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, VA

Game Overview

The Liberty Flames (2-4) host the New Mexico State Aggies (3-2) in a mid-October NCAA Football matchup. Liberty is favored heavily with home advantage and a better defensive profile, while New Mexico State comes in with a superior record and some key players healthy and ready.

Key Factors to Consider

• New Mexico State has a 3-2 record, showing better recent form and more consistent play than Liberty, who is 2-4 with a losing trend. Liberty's defense has been solid, holding opponents under 20 points recently, while their offense has struggled to score.
• Recent head-to-head information is limited, but Liberty has historically had a home-field edge. No recent games available to significantly favor one side based on this factor.
• New Mexico State’s RB Dijon Stanley is healthy following a concussion, and WR Donovan Faupel is active, which improves their offensive potential. Liberty has no reported key injuries impacting this game.
• Clear weather conditions expected at Williams Stadium with no rain and mild temperatures around 68°F, which favors a normal style of play. Home crowd support favors Liberty.
• Liberty is motivated to improve their losing record and protect home turf. New Mexico State aims to continue their winning momentum and potentially secure a bowl-eligible season.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Liberty Flames: -450, New Mexico State Aggies: +350	Liberty Flames	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Liberty Flames -11.5 (-110), New Mexico State Aggies +11.5 (-110)	Liberty Flames -11.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 48.5 (-110), Under 48.5 (-110)	Under 48.5	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Liberty Flames -7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 48.5 24%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 48.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Liberty Flames to win straight up covering the spread and the game total to go under.

Predicted Score: Liberty Flames 27 – New Mexico State Aggies 17

Top EV Parlay for American Football – October 14, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
South Alabama Jaguars vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves Prediction	South Alabama Jaguars	-295	121%
Liberty Flames vs. New Mexico State Aggies Prediction	Under 48.5	-110	24%
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Florida International Panthers Prediction	Over 55.5	-110	15%

Combined Odds: +388 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $97.6

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Liberty Flames vs. New Mexico State Aggies Prediction	Liberty Flames Win	-450	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Florida International Panthers Prediction	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Win	-330	★★★★☆ 72% (72%)
South Alabama Jaguars vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves Prediction	Over 58.5	-110	★★★☆☆ 63% (63%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +204

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $60.81

Match Analysis: New Mexico State Aggies vs Sam Houston State Bearkats – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-02
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, New Mexico

Game Overview

Sam Houston State Bearkats (0-4) visit New Mexico State Aggies (2-2) in a CUSA conference matchup at New Mexico State's home field. Both teams have struggled offensively and defensively but present exploitable matchups, especially in the passing game. Sam Houston is favored by a narrow margin despite a winless record, while New Mexico State is seeking to rebound from recent losses.

Key Factors to Consider

• New Mexico State has a slightly better record (2-2) but just lost their last two games; their offense is pass-heavy, accounting for 91% of total production but with a weak rushing attack (20 yards/game). Sam Houston averages just 16 points per game under a new pass-focused coach but has defensive vulnerabilities, conceding 37+ points in every game.
• No recent direct matchup data available, but both teams show balanced vulnerabilities especially in pass defense, suggesting a potentially high-scoring and close contest.
• No significant injury reports surfaced for either team; both appear to field mostly full-strength rosters.
• Game played at New Mexico State's home stadium with warm, clear conditions and national TV coverage attracting focused betting interest.
• Sam Houston is desperate for its first win of the season after a 0-4 start, while New Mexico State aims to stop a two-game losing streak and protect home field advantage.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: +108, away: -130	Sam Houston State	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	home: -114, away: -106	Sam Houston State to cover -2.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	over: -115, under: -105	Over 52.5 points	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Sam Houston State Bearkats 1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 52.5 10%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 52.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sam Houston State to win on the moneyline, covering the 2.5-point spread, and the game to go over 52.5 points

Predicted Score: Sam Houston State 30 – New Mexico State 24

Match Analysis: New Mexico Lobos vs New Mexico State Aggies – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-27
• Time: 8:00 PM UTC
• Location: University Stadium

Game Overview

The New Mexico Lobos host the New Mexico State Aggies in a heated regional rivalry. Both teams are 2-1, but New Mexico are strong favorites with a -600 moneyline, favored by 14 points on the spread, and a moderately high total points line at 53.5.

Key Factors to Consider

• New Mexico Lobos have allowed fewer points per game and have shown stronger defense and offense efficiency recent weeks compared to New Mexico State. The Lobos have a more consistent margin of victory and better margin of defeat metrics.
• Recent H2H matchups favor New Mexico Lobos who have won the majority of these contests convincingly, often covering big spreads against the Aggies.
• No major injuries reported for key starters on either side, indicating both teams are close to full strength.
• Game played at Home for New Mexico, providing a significant home-field advantage. Weather and other conditions are expected to be neutral.
• New Mexico seeks to affirm control of the in-state rivalry and boost Mountain West positioning. New Mexico State aims to upset a heavy favorite but motivation is tempered by underdog status.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	New Mexico Lobos -600, New Mexico State Aggies +440	New Mexico Lobos	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	New Mexico Lobos -14 -112, New Mexico State Aggies +14 -108	New Mexico Lobos -14	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 53.5 -110, Under 53.5 -110	Under 53.5	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	New Mexico Lobos -7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 53.5 15%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 53.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

New Mexico Lobos to win straight up and cover the 14 point spread. The game is likely to stay under the total of 53.5 due to strong defensive play.

Predicted Score: New Mexico Lobos 27, New Mexico State Aggies 13

Match Analysis: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs New Mexico State Aggies – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 11:30 PM UTC
• Location: Joe Aillet Stadium, Ruston, Louisiana

Game Overview

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs host the New Mexico State Aggies in a Conference USA matchup. Louisiana Tech opens as a strong favorite after a mixed start to their season, while New Mexico State remains undefeated but is an underdog on the road.

Key Factors to Consider

• New Mexico State (2-0) is showing a solid defense allowing only 8.5 points per game, while Louisiana Tech (1-1) has struggled offensively averaging 15.5 points but has shown some defensive resilience. New Mexico State's offense is balanced with passing (239.5 ypg) and modest rushing, compared to Louisiana Tech's lower offensive output.
• Recent matchups favor Louisiana Tech, but New Mexico State has had success as underdog in several recent games and the Bulldogs have notable struggles when favored by double digits in September.
• No significant injuries reported for either team to affect starters or key roles. Both teams appear near full strength.
• Louisiana Tech benefits from home field advantage at Joe Aillet Stadium and local fan support. Weather or conditions not currently impacting.
• New Mexico State motivated to maintain undefeated status and prove themselves against a favored opponent. Louisiana Tech motivated to rebound from recent loss and assert conference dominance.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -380, away: +300	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	home: -10 -108, away: +10 -112	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -10	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	over: -110, under: -110	Under 43.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -9%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 43.5 15%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 43.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Bet on Louisiana Tech Bulldogs moneyline and spread. Expect a moderately close game with Bulldogs winning comfortably but the Aggies challenging the spread. Total points should remain under the 43.5 line due to strong defenses and moderate offenses.

Predicted Score: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 27 – New Mexico State Aggies 14

Match Analysis: New Mexico State Aggies vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: Aggie Memorial Stadium

Game Overview

The New Mexico State Aggies host the Tulsa Golden Hurricane in Week 2 of the 2025 NCAA football season. Both teams enter 1-0, but Tulsa is a slight favorite as they have shown stronger recent form and more consistent defensive performance.

Key Factors to Consider

• Tulsa’s offense is balanced with QB Kirk Francis showing efficiency (64.5% completion, 218 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) complemented by a strong rushing attack (Dominic Richardson 142 yards, 1 TD). Defensively, Tulsa allows only 7 points and 260 yards/game. New Mexico State has struggled against the spread and not yet hit totals over in recent matches.
• Recent head-to-head matchups and betting trends favor Tulsa, who have covered all games as favorites of 5.5 points or more, while New Mexico State has not covered any spread this season.
• No critical injury updates reported for key offensive or defensive starters on either side, allowing full-strength lineups expected.
• The game is at Aggie Memorial Stadium (home for New Mexico State) but Tulsa’s defensive strength and motivation to maintain winning streak against spread offsets home-field advantage.
• Tulsa aims to build on a snapped losing streak and assert dominance early in the season. New Mexico State tries to capitalize on home advantage but lacks recent success trends.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	New Mexico State +160, Tulsa -192	Tulsa	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	New Mexico State +4.5 -110, Tulsa -4.5 -110	Tulsa -4.5	★★★☆☆ 64%
Over/under	Over 51.5 -115, Under 51.5 -105	Under 51.5	★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Tulsa Golden Hurricane -6%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 51.5 13%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 51.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Tulsa Golden Hurricane to win straight up on the moneyline, cover the 4.5 point spread, and the game to stay under the total points line.

Predicted Score: Tulsa 24 – New Mexico State 17

Match Analysis: New Mexico State Aggies vs Bryant Bulldogs – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-31
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM

Game Overview

New Mexico State Aggies host Bryant Bulldogs in the season opener at Aggie Memorial Stadium. New Mexico State is a sizable favorite with strong home advantage and a robust historical performance in simulations against Bryant.

Key Factors to Consider

• New Mexico State is heavily favored with an 89% win probability in extensive simulations, showing superior team depth and experience compared to Bryant’s rebuilding squad under a moderately experienced coach. Bryant returns some key offensive and defensive players but lacks top-tier FBS-level firepower.
• No recent direct matchups found, but statistical simulations show a consistent New Mexico State dominance, projecting a comfortable victory.
• No significant injury concerns reported for either team ahead of the game, implying squads will field near full strength.
• Home field advantage with warm weather (85°F), slight chance of rain (25%), and moderate wind could favor New Mexico State accustomed to local conditions.
• Both teams start 0-0; New Mexico State motivated to assert dominance at home early in the season while Bryant looks to improve on last year’s low win total but faces a tough challenge in an away game.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -1100, away: +680	New Mexico State Aggies	★★★★☆ 88%
Spread	home: -110, away: -110	New Mexico State Aggies -19.5	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	over: -110, under: -110	Over 53.5	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	New Mexico State Aggies -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 53.5 24%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 53.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

New Mexico State Aggies to win outright on the moneyline, cover the -19.5 spread, and the total points to go over 53.5

Predicted Score: New Mexico State Aggies 37 – Bryant Bulldogs 18