Match Analysis: Aline Pereira vs Nejra Repp – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Foxwoods Resort Casino, Mashantucket, Connecticut
Game Overview
Flyweight bout at LFA 222 between Aline Pereira and Nejra Repp. Pereira is making a return to MMA after competing in Karate Combat where she achieved a 3-0 record and won a title. Repp is an experienced MMA fighter with a 4-2 record and is known for powerful striking and having been involved in a 'Fight of the Year' contender recently. The bout takes place in a competitive legacy regional platform serving as a stepping stone to UFC.
Key Factors to Consider
- Aline Pereira (1-2 MMA record) has strong striking pedigree, a Black Belt in kickboxing, and training support from UFC-level athletes like Tracy Cortez. However, she has limited pro MMA experience and a break from MMA competition may have affected her fight sharpness. Nejra Repp (4-2 MMA record) has more MMA experience, including LFA appearances, and recently won a notable fight by KO despite early adversity, indicating resilience and finishing ability.
- No prior professional MMA bouts recorded between Aline Pereira and Nejra Repp.
- No reported injuries for either fighter going into the match based on weigh-in and recent reports.
- The fight is held at Foxwoods Resort Casino with live broadcast on UFC Fight Pass. Repp's recent fight and training camp indicate peak preparation. Pereira benefits from support of prominent MMA figures and her striking background but faces a challenge adapting back to MMA after a layoff.
- Aline Pereira is motivated to prove herself in MMA and follow in the footsteps of her brother Alex Pereira to reach UFC. Nejra Repp is coming off a high-profile victory and is motivated to continue proving herself in the flyweight division, likely aiming for UFC positioning as well.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Aline Pereira: -185, Nejra Repp: 140 | Nejra Repp to win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Aline Pereira -1.5: Unavailable, Nejra Repp +1.5: Unavailable | Nejra Repp by decision or finish | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -190, Under 2.5 rounds: 145 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Aline Pereira 49% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 42% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Aline Pereira at 49% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 34.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nejra Repp is favored to win due to greater MMA experience, recent momentum, and demonstrated fight-ending power. Pereira's striking skills and athleticism make her a threat but the break from MMA and less experience are significant disadvantages.
Predicted Score: Nejra Repp wins by KO or decision in Round 2