Match Analysis: NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-28
- Time: 10:15 AM UTC
- Location: Stadion de Goffert, Nijmegen
Game Overview
NEC Nijmegen (7th place, 9 points) hosts AZ Alkmaar (5th place, 11 points) in an Eredivisie clash where both teams seek vital points. NEC has an aggressive style but inconsistent form, while AZ is unbeaten away and defensively solid.
Key Factors to Consider
- AZ Alkmaar demonstrates consistent form with 3 wins and 2 draws, unbeaten away, scoring 12 and conceding 7 goals; NEC Nijmegen has scored 19 but conceded 12 with mixed results and a recent home defeat.
- Last meetings were closely contested, including a thrilling 3-3 draw. Historically tight matchups suggest competitive, attacking games.
- No critical injuries reported for either side affecting starting XI.
- Match at NEC's home stadium with normal conditions; no reported adverse environmental factors.
- Both teams motivated to improve standings; AZ aims to maintain unbeaten run, NEC seeks rebound from recent loss.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | AZ Alkmaar: +108, NEC Nijmegen: +189, Draw: +295 | AZ Alkmaar | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Spread | AZ Alkmaar -0.25: -110, NEC Nijmegen +25: -110 | AZ Alkmaar -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 3.25: -108, Under 3.25: -112 | Over 3.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | AZ Alkmaar 14% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3.25 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: AZ Alkmaar at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
AZ Alkmaar to win (Moneyline), AZ Alkmaar -0.25 on spread, Over 3.25 goals
Predicted Score: 2-1 AZ Alkmaar