Match Analysis: NC State Wolfpack vs VCU Rams – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-18
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC
Game Overview
NC State Wolfpack (3-0) host the VCU Rams (2-1) in a non-conference NCAA basketball game. NC State shows dominant offensive efficiency and home performance, whereas VCU is a strong underdog with a solid defense and ability to compete on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- NC State is undefeated at 3-0 with an average of 106 points per game on 56% shooting, allowing 67 points. VCU is 2-1, averaging 86 points on 45.8% shooting and allowing 72 points; NC State has also covered the spread in their last 3 games and consistently hits the over. VCU has won 14 of their last 17 as a season trend but have struggled against top offenses.
- Recent head-to-head data favors NC State, especially at home where they've won the last 10 consecutive games. NC State also tends to start strong, winning first halves in 12 of 13 recent night non-conf games, whereas VCU has had success in first halves but struggles to maintain leads against high-caliber teams.
- No major injuries reported for either side; both squads are expected to be at full strength.
- Home court advantage is significant for NC State, amplified by their strong recent home performance. VCU will face a hostile environment and travel fatigue. Betting line movements have remained steady indicating bookmaker confidence in NC State's favoritism.
- NC State is motivated to maintain an undefeated start and assert dominance in a non-conference game at home. VCU aims to upset but historically underperforms in hostile venues against top opponents, suggesting motivation is high but less impactful.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | NC State Wolfpack: -1000, VCU Rams: +640 | NC State Wolfpack | ★★★★☆ 88% |
| Spread | NC State Wolfpack -12.5: -110, VCU Rams +12.5: -110 | NC State Wolfpack -12.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 165.5: -114, Under 165.5: -106 | Over 165.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | NC State Wolfpack -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 165.5 28% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 165.5 at 28% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
NC State Wolfpack to win straight up, cover the spread, and the game to go over the total points line.
Predicted Score: NC State 88 – VCU 72