Navajo Stirling vs. Ivan Erslan Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Navajo Stirling vs Ivan Erslan – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-10
  • Time: 12:00 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC (Prelims, Light Heavyweight Division)

Game Overview

This is a preliminary light heavyweight bout in the UFC, featuring Navajo Stirling (New Zealand) versus Ivan Erslan (Croatia). Stirling is the betting favorite, with Erslan considered a significant underdog. Both fighters are relatively tall for the division and have a competitive reach, though Stirling holds a slight edge in both height and reach. The fight is scheduled for May 10, 2025, as part of the UFC 315 event.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Navajo Stirling is a strong contender with a more favorable betting line, indicating superior recent performances or better perceived matchup fit. Ivan Erslan, while experienced, is seen as an underdog, likely due to less dominant performances in recent outings or stylistic disadvantages.
  • No prior head-to-head history found. This is the first known meeting between these two fighters.
  • No injury reports are available at this time for either fighter.
  • No major external factors (weather, location disruptions) reported. Standard UFC prelim event conditions apply.
  • Both fighters are highly motivated, especially Erslan looking to upset the odds, while Stirling aims to maintain momentum and justify his status as favorite.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Navajo Stirling -325 | Ivan Erslan 260 Navajo Stirling ★★★★☆ 70%
Spread Navajo Stirling -3.5 (-190) | Ivan Erslan +3.5 (140) Navajo Stirling covers (wins by 4 or more points/rounds/KO/Submission) ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 1.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 1.5 Rounds (135) Over 1.5 Rounds ★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Navajo Stirling -6%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 1.5 23%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 39.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Navajo Stirling is favored to win by decision or late stoppage, leveraging his reach and technical striking. However, given the unpredictability of MMA, an Erslan upset via knockout remains a plausible risk.

Predicted Score: Navajo Stirling by Decision (Unanimous), 30-27 on scorecards.


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