Match Analysis: Navajo Stirling vs Rodolfo Bellato – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-27
• Time: 1:40 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Fight Night 260, Perth, Australia

Game Overview

Navajo Stirling, an undefeated 7-0 light heavyweight known for balanced striking, wrestling, and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, faces Rodolfo Bellato, a more experienced but less consistent fighter with a record of 12-2-1 (1 NC). Stirling is the strong favorite based on odds and recent form.

Key Factors to Consider

• Stirling maintains a 7-0 undefeated record with notable accuracies in striking (56%) and a high strike volume, reflecting consistent dominance; Bellato, despite a solid overall record, has faced recent disruptions including a no-contest due to fouls and lacks Stirling's undefeated momentum.
• No recorded previous head-to-head bouts, making this a stylistic and form-based analysis rather than direct matchup history.
• No publicly reported injuries for either fighter heading into this bout, implying both will enter at full physical capacity.
• Fight is held in Perth, Australia, potentially closer to Stirling's home gym (City Kickboxing). Bellato's recent travel and fight disruptions might affect preparation.
• Stirling seeks to maintain his perfect record and rise up UFC light heavyweight rankings, providing strong motivation; Bellato aims to rebound from recent setbacks, motivated but underdog status may impact psychological dynamic.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Navajo Stirling: -245, Rodolfo Bellato: +200	Navajo Stirling	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Navajo Stirling -7.5: -115, Rodolfo Bellato +7.5: -115	Navajo Stirling -7.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	over 1.5 rounds: -180, under 1.5 rounds: +140	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Navajo Stirling -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 44%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 44% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Navajo Stirling to win by knockout

Predicted Score: Navajo Stirling wins by KO in Round 1 or 2

Match Analysis: Navajo Stirling vs Ivan Erslan – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-10
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: UFC (Prelims, Light Heavyweight Division)

Game Overview

This is a preliminary light heavyweight bout in the UFC, featuring Navajo Stirling (New Zealand) versus Ivan Erslan (Croatia). Stirling is the betting favorite, with Erslan considered a significant underdog. Both fighters are relatively tall for the division and have a competitive reach, though Stirling holds a slight edge in both height and reach. The fight is scheduled for May 10, 2025, as part of the UFC 315 event.

Key Factors to Consider

• Navajo Stirling is a strong contender with a more favorable betting line, indicating superior recent performances or better perceived matchup fit. Ivan Erslan, while experienced, is seen as an underdog, likely due to less dominant performances in recent outings or stylistic disadvantages.
• No prior head-to-head history found. This is the first known meeting between these two fighters.
• No injury reports are available at this time for either fighter.
• No major external factors (weather, location disruptions) reported. Standard UFC prelim event conditions apply.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, especially Erslan looking to upset the odds, while Stirling aims to maintain momentum and justify his status as favorite.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Navajo Stirling -325 | Ivan Erslan 260	Navajo Stirling	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Navajo Stirling -3.5 (-190) | Ivan Erslan +3.5 (140)	Navajo Stirling covers (wins by 4 or more points/rounds/KO/Submission)	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 1.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 1.5 Rounds (135)	Over 1.5 Rounds	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Navajo Stirling -6%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 23%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 39.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Navajo Stirling is favored to win by decision or late stoppage, leveraging his reach and technical striking. However, given the unpredictability of MMA, an Erslan upset via knockout remains a plausible risk.

Predicted Score: Navajo Stirling by Decision (Unanimous), 30-27 on scorecards.