Match Analysis: Nathan Kelly vs Frederik Dupras – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-01
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, NJ

Game Overview

The featherweight bout between Nathan Kelly and Frederik Dupras is scheduled as part of the prelims for the 2025 PFL World Tournament 8: Finals event. Nathan Kelly enters with an 11-4 record and a balanced skill set combining 4 KO/TKO wins and 5 submission wins. Frederik Dupras holds an 8-2 record with a dominant submission skill set, boasting 8 submission wins and no KO wins. The fight is expected to last the regular 3 rounds and will showcase a classic striker vs. grappler style matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

• Nathan Kelly has a slightly better overall record (11-4 vs 8-2) but has lost more fights. He wins via KO/TKO (4) and submissions (5) indicating versatility. Frederik Dupras is undefeated in submissions (8) and has better submission finishing rates but no KO wins, suggesting a grappling-dominant style.
• No recorded previous encounter between Nathan Kelly and Frederik Dupras, making this fight their first head-to-head meeting. Styles make the fight a striking vs grappling clash based on finishing type statistics.
• No reported injuries or medical issues for either fighter ahead of the bout.
• The bout takes place in the notable Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall during a high-profile PFL Finals event attended by strong audience and media coverage, potentially increasing pressure. Both fighters will aim to capitalize on the exposure.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, aiming to prove themselves on a major stage in the PFL Finals event, with Kelly possibly looking to reclaim dominance after 4 losses, and Dupras to build momentum with his grappling prowess.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Frederik_Dupras: +125, Nathan_Kelly: -150	Nathan Kelly by decision or late rounds, Dupras by early submission	Kelly 55%, Dupras 45%
Spread	Kelly: -1.5, Dupras: +1.5	Kelly to win by more than 1.5 rounds or by points	★★★☆☆ 53%
Over/under	over_2.5_rounds: -110, under_2.5_rounds: -110	Under 2.5 rounds given submission potential	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Nathan Kelly -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Nathan Kelly at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the data, Frederik Dupras is favored due to his superior finishing rate by submission and an undefeated submission record, despite Kelly's more extensive experience. The fight likely ends by submission within 3 rounds favoring Dupras.

Predicted Score: Kelly 29-28 by judges if it goes decision; otherwise, Dupras submission win round 2

Match Analysis: Nathan Kelly vs Tae Kyun Kim – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-03
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: –

Game Overview

The upcoming MMA match between Nathan Kelly and Tae Kyun Kim promises to be a challenging bout for both fighters. Nathan Kelly brings a strong background with decisive wins in the PFL and Bellator, while Tae Kyun Kim has shown impressive performance as a veteran of the Brave CF title match. Kim's undefeated record in terms of knockouts or submissions is noteworthy, making this a competitive fight.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both fighters have impressive records; Nathan Kelly is known for his knockout power and submission skills, while Tae Kyun Kim has shown a blend of striking and grappling skills, having never been knocked out or submitted in a professional fight.
• There is no recorded head-to-head match between Nathan Kelly and Tae Kyun Kim, making this a fresh contest.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter have been noted.
• Given that the event's specific venue has not been disclosed, the home advantage for Nathan Kelly may be less significant.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Tae Kyun Kim seeking to prove himself in the PFL and Nathan Kelly looking to continue his winning streak.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Nathan Kelly: +110, Tae Kyun Kim: -130	Tae Kyun Kim	★★★☆☆ 57%

Predicted Outcome

Tae Kyun Kim is favored to win based on his skilled performance and consistency in avoiding knockouts and submissions.

Predicted Score: N/A