Match Analysis: Nate Landwehr vs Morgan Charriere – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-13
- Time: 2:15 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Fight Night: Nashville
Game Overview
This UFC featherweight bout features Nate Landwehr, a powerful striker known for his aggressive style and durability, facing Morgan Charrière, a technically sound and strategic fighter favored by bookmakers. Both fighters have exciting, aggressive styles suggesting a high-action fight that could go the distance or end early by finish.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nate Landwehr has shown resilience and durability with several recent wins but struggles against top technical fighters. Morgan Charrière exhibits well-rounded skills, leveraging technical striking and grappling, maintaining a solid recent form with a strong finishing rate.
- There is no prior head-to-head matchup between Landwehr and Charrière, making this a fresh contest influenced mainly by their contrasting styles and recent performances.
- No significant injuries reported for either fighter going into the fight, allowing both to perform at near full capacity.
- The bout is scheduled at UFC Fight Night in Nashville, with no notable external conditions affecting either fighter's preparation or motivation. Both fighters appear focused and motivated.
- Both fighters have high motivation to secure a statement win to elevate their rankings. Charrière, as the betting favorite, has pressure to deliver, while Landwehr aims for an upset to revitalize his career momentum.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Charrière -270, Landwehr +220 | Morgan Charrière | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Charrière -3.5 (-110), Landwehr +3.5 (-120) | Morgan Charrière -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 (-166), Under 2.5 (130) | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Morgan Charriere 118% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Morgan Charriere at 118% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 53.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Morgan Charrière wins by moneyline
Predicted Score: Morgan Charrière wins via decision after 3 rounds