Match Analysis: Reginaldo Junior vs Natan Mota – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Brasília, DF, Brazil
Game Overview
This welterweight bout at LFA 221 features Brazilian prospect Reginaldo Junior, a highly regarded fighter with a 10-1 record, facing Natan Mota, a newcomer to LFA with an 8-3 record. Both fighters are black belts in striking arts and have strong finishing abilities, but Junior is favored due to his recent winning streak and well-rounded skill set.
Key Factors to Consider
- Reginaldo Junior has a strong 10-1 professional record, currently on a four-fight winning streak and with a solid finishing rate demonstrating power striking and offensive grappling. Natan Mota holds a respectable 8-3 record, all wins by finish, showcasing KO and submission skills but is less experienced at this level.
- No direct previous encounters between Reginaldo Junior and Natan Mota exist.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading into this bout.
- The fight is held in Brasília, Brazil, giving local advantage to Reginaldo Junior. Fighting Nerds camp represents Junior, a top MMA training camp, while Mota trains near Brasília with black belts in Muay Thai and Taekwondo. No major external disruptions noted.
- Reginaldo Junior is highly motivated to continue his winning streak to secure a UFC contract and enhance his career prospects. Natan Mota is motivated to make a strong LFA debut with a 100% finishing rate outside LFA and break through the prospect spotlight.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Reginaldo Junior: -1000, Natan Mota: 550 | Reginaldo Junior to win | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Over/under | over_1.5: 140, under_1.5: -185 | Under 1.5 rounds (fight likely to finish before 2 full rounds) | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Reginaldo Junior -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 -8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Reginaldo Junior at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Reginaldo Junior is favored to win by a mix of knockout or submission, leveraging superior experience, finishing ability, and momentum. Predictions suggest Junior should control grappling exchanges and capitalize on his power striking.
Predicted Score: Reginaldo Junior wins by KO or Submission in Round 1