Match Analysis: Nasrat Haqparast vs Quillan Salkilld – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-25
• Time: 5:45 PM UTC
• Location: Etihad Arena

Game Overview

Nasrat Haqparast and Quillan Salkilld face off in a highly anticipated lightweight bout at UFC 321. Haqparast brings veteran experience with 14 UFC fights under his belt, showcasing sharp boxing and durability. Salkilld is an up-and-coming fighter known for his athleticism and evolving striking and grappling skills, but his relative inexperience and gas tank limitations could be tested.

Key Factors to Consider

• Haqparast is on a four-fight winning streak showing consistent finishing ability and composure under pressure. Salkilld impressed in his last fight with a mixed striking and wrestling approach but has less UFC experience overall.
• No prior matchups between these fighters.
• No significant injuries reported for either fighter going into the bout.
• Fight takes place at neutral Etihad Arena with no apparent home advantage. Both fighters motivated to solidify standings in the lightweight division.
• Haqparast looks to extend his UFC momentum and leverage his experience to outsmart the younger opponent. Salkilld aims to make a breakout statement and prove his evolving skill set against a seasoned veteran.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Nasrat Haqparast: -110, Quillan Salkilld: -110	Nasrat Haqparast	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Nasrat Haqparast -3.5: +165, Quillan Salkilld +3.5: -230	Quillan Salkilld +3.5	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -215, Under 2.5 rounds: +165	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Nasrat Haqparast 5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 59%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 59% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline: Nasrat Haqparast to win

Predicted Score: Nasrat Haqparast wins via decision after 3 rounds

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – October 25, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Nasrat Haqparast vs. Quillan Salkilld Prediction	Under 2.5	165	59%
Kyle Estrada vs. Ernesto Ibarra Prediction	Over 2.5	-165	25%
Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane Prediction	Over 1.5	-120	25%

Combined Odds: +680 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $156.06

Match Analysis: Nasrat Haqparast vs Esteban Ribovics – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-01
• Time: 1:15 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

Nasrat Haqparast faces Esteban Ribovics in a lightweight bout at UFC Fight Night. Haqparast has a record of 17-5 with 10 knockouts, while Ribovics is 14-1 with 7 knockouts and 5 submissions. Haqparast has a reach advantage and more experience, but Ribovics is favored due to his durability and comeback ability.

Key Factors to Consider

• Haqparast has won four of his last five fights, showcasing his ability to adapt and win via decision or knockout. Ribovics is known for his resilience and comeback victories, often overcoming early adversity to secure wins.
• This is the first meeting between Haqparast and Ribovics, with no prior head-to-head data available.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight takes place at the UFC Apex, which might favor Haqparast due to his experience in similar environments. However, Ribovics' aggressive style could negate this advantage.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Haqparast seeking to continue his winning streak and Ribovics aiming to build on his recent successes.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Ribovics -250, Haqparast 200	Haqparast	★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread	Ribovics -3.5 -115, Haqparast 3.5 -115	Haqparast	★★☆☆☆ 45%
Over_under	Over 2.5 -185, Under 2.5 155	Over	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Haqparast via decision

Predicted Score: 29-28 Haqparast