Match Analysis: Naoya Inoue vs Murodjon Akhmadaliev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-14
• Time: 10:00 AM UTC
• Location: Aichi International Arena, Nagoya, Japan

Game Overview

Naoya Inoue, the undisputed super bantamweight champion with a perfect 30-0 record and 90% KO rate, faces Murodjon Akhmadaliev, a strong challenger with a 14-1 record and 79% KO rate. The fight holds four major belts and is highly anticipated in the super bantamweight division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Inoue remains undefeated in 30 fights, having stopped his last 10 opponents via TKO/KO, showing dominance and high finishing ability. Akhmadaliev, after one career loss in 2023, has won his last three fights convincingly.
• This is their first professional meeting; therefore, no direct H2H data exists.
• No reported injuries for either boxer leading into the fight; both preparing at full strength.
• The fight is held in Nagoya, Japan, Inoue’s home country, providing a potential home advantage. The bout garners significant public and promoter attention with no broadcast rights announced yet, possibly increasing fighters' motivation.
• Inoue aims to maintain his undefeated legacy and undisputed status. Akhmadaliev seeks redemption after his only recent loss and to claim multiple world titles, significantly motivating him.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Naoya Inoue: -1000, Murodjon Akhmadaliev: 600	Naoya Inoue	★★★★☆ 89%
Spread	Naoya Inoue -3.5 rounds: -350, Murodjon Akhmadaliev +3.5 rounds: 280	Naoya Inoue -3.5 rounds (win by stoppage before round 4)	★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under	Over 8.5 rounds: -130, Under 8.5 rounds: 100	Under 8.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Naoya Inoue -2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 8.5 30%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Naoya Inoue wins by TKO/KO

Predicted Score: Naoya Inoue wins by TKO in round 7

Match Analysis: Naoya Inoue vs Ramon Cardenas – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: May 4, 2025
• Time: 3:00 AM UTC
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas

Game Overview

Naoya Inoue, considered one of the best pound-for-pound boxers, is set to defend his undisputed junior featherweight title against Ramon Cardenas. Inoue's exceptional skillset and undefeated record in this division highlight him as a heavy favorite.

Key Factors to Consider

• Inoue has consistently demonstrated superior performance in the junior featherweight category, with a formidable record and a strong reputation for finishing fights early. Cardenas, while less experienced at this level, brings a challenging style.
• There is no prior head-to-head encounter between Inoue and Cardenas, which might introduce some unpredictability. However, Inoue's overall track record is expected to give him an edge.
• No significant injury reports have been noted for either boxer leading up to this fight.
• The fight is being held at a major venue, which might not impact the fighters significantly but could amplify the pressure on Cardenas. Inoue's experience in big fights should mitigate such effects.
• Inoue is highly motivated to maintain his undefeated status and continue his reign as the undisputed champion. Cardenas has a major opportunity to upset one of the sport's biggest stars, which could be a significant motivator.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-10000 (Inoue), 1800 (Cardenas)	Inoue Win	★★★★★ 90%
Over/under	-130 (Over 5.5), +100 (Under 5.5)	Under 5.5 Rounds	★★★★☆ 80%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Naoya Inoue 1648%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 5.5 60%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Naoya Inoue at 1648% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 91.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Naoya Inoue is expected to dominate the fight, potentially winning by knockout or technical knockout.

Predicted Score: Naoya Inoue by TKO in Round 4

Top EV Parlay for Boxing – May 4, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Naoya Inoue vs. Ramon Cardenas Prediction	Naoya Inoue	-10000	1648%
Mikito Nakano vs. Pedro Marquez Prediction	Mikito Nakano	-1000	530%
Rafael Espinoza vs. Edward Vazquez Prediction	Under 10.5	-115	12%

Combined Odds: +108 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $41.54