Match Analysis: Najee Lopez vs Kalvin Henderson – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 2:30 AM UTC
- Location: Osceola Heritage Park, Kissimmee, Florida
Game Overview
Najee Lopez and Kalvin Henderson will face off in a 10-round light heavyweight bout (175 lbs) at Osceola Heritage Park. Lopez is undefeated (14-0, 11 KOs), younger and less experienced, while Henderson (19-2-1, 13 KOs) has more fights and professional rounds. Lopez has reach and height advantages and is ranked in the WBA and IBF light heavyweight top 15, while Henderson is on a four-fight win streak.
Key Factors to Consider
- Lopez demonstrates strong power with a 79% KO rate and undefeated status, but with less experience and fewer total rounds. Henderson has a longer career, more fights, and a 68% KO rate, showing resilience and recent momentum with four consecutive wins.
- No previous fights between Lopez and Henderson; no direct head-to-head history.
- No known injuries reported for either fighter ahead of the match.
- The fight is the main event on ProBox TV in Kissimmee, Florida, with López motivated by recent Artur Beterbiev rumors igniting his competitive drive. The venue and crowd support may slightly favor Lopez as the younger rising fighter.
- Lopez is fueled by recent rumors linking him to a Beterbiev matchup, increasing his motivation. Henderson aims to continue his winning streak to enhance his standing in the light heavyweight division.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Najee Lopez: -1400, Kalvin Henderson: 700 | Najee Lopez | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Najee Lopez -3.5 rounds: +120, Kalvin Henderson +3.5 rounds: -140 | Najee Lopez by more than 3.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 7.5 rounds: -110, Under 7.5 rounds: -110 | Under 7.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Najee Lopez -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Najee Lopez at -7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Najee Lopez is favored to win due to superior power, youth, physical advantages, and motivation, despite Henderson's experience and recent form. Lopez likely secures a stoppage or clear decision within 10 rounds.
Predicted Score: Najee Lopez wins by TKO in round 7