Match Analysis: Nacional vs Moreirense FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-04
- Time: 2:30 PM UTC
- Location: EstΓ‘dio da Madeira
Game Overview
CD Nacional hosts Moreirense FC in a Primeira Liga match where Nacional struggles at home (no wins in 3 matches) and Moreirense are higher in the standings in 4th place with strong overall form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nacional is 13th with 7 points from 7 matches, 2-1-4 record, with poor home form losing all 3 home games conceding 8 goals. Moreirense sits 4th with 15 points, 5 wins and 2 losses, scoring more goals and boasting better overall form.
- Last meeting ended in a draw. Historically, matches tend to be close and low scoring, with both teams prioritizing defense in recent encounters.
- No specific injury reports available from data; assume typical squad availability with no major absences reported.
- Nacional has home advantage but their defensive frailty at home tempers this. Moreirense's away performance is solid though slightly less potent than at home.
- Moreirense motivated to consolidate top-table position while Nacional aims to escape relegation zone and improve home form; high motivation on both sides but differential favors Moreirense.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: +135, draw: +210, away: +215 | Draw | β β β ββ 60% |
Spread | home_-0.25: +102, away_+25: -122 | Away +0.25 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | over_2.25: +102, under_2.25: -122 | Under 2.25 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Draw 24% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Draw at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Draw
Predicted Score: 1-1