Match Analysis: CF Estrela vs Nacional – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 3:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio José Gomes, Amadora, Portugal
Game Overview
CF Estrela Amadora, currently near the bottom of the Primeira Liga standings, faces CD Nacional, a mid-table team, in a match held at Estádio José Gomes. Estrela Amadora is struggling with form, having not won in their last 5 matches and conceding 41 goals in 27 league games, while Nacional has a slightly better record and a marginally favorable goal difference. Both teams have been inconsistent recently, but Nacional has a historical edge in scoring frequency and results against Estrela Amadora.
Key Factors to Consider
- Estrela Amadora is 15th in the league with 23 points from 27 games, scoring 21 goals and conceding 41, struggling offensively and defensively. They have a recent run of 3 draws and 2 losses in their last 5. Nacional is 11th with 29 points, scoring 26 and conceding 37 goals, with a pattern of mixed wins and losses (LWLWL). Nacional's scoring ability is superior, especially in the 31-45 minute range where they score 38% of their goals, compared to Estrela's 24%.
- In the last 5 meetings between the two clubs, Nacional has won 2 times, Estrela has won 2 times, and there has been 1 draw. The overall goal difference is slightly in favor of Nacional (5-4). This suggests a fairly balanced rivalry but with a moderate edge to Nacional based on scoring and results.
- No specific injury data was available from the sources. Both teams presumably field close to their regular starting lineups.
- The game is played at Estrela Amadora’s home ground, Estádio José Gomes, which typically benefits the home side. However, Estrela's poor recent form at home may reduce this advantage. Weather or pitch conditions and potential fan attendance impact were not specified.
- Estrela Amadora, positioned near the relegation zone, will be highly motivated to gain points to improve their standings. Nacional, sitting mid-table, may target consolidating their position rather than taking excessive risks, possibly aiming for a secure away point.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | CF Estrela: 178, Nacional: 162, Draw: 212 | Nacional to win | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Spread | CF Estrela: 50, Nacional: 50 | Nacional -0 (Draw No Bet) | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: -105, Under 2.25: -115 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nacional 5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 16% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The match is likely to be close with a slight edge to Nacional due to superior recent form, goal-scoring stats, and a balanced historical record. The expectation is a low-scoring game with a tight margin, potentially ending in a draw or a narrow away win.
Predicted Score: 0-1