Match Analysis: NAC Breda vs Groningen – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-03
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda
Game Overview
NAC Breda hosts FC Groningen in an Eredivisie fixture where Groningen sits 6th with 12 points, and NAC Breda 15th with 7 points. Both teams have had mixed recent performances and are motivated to improve their league standings, making a tightly contested match likely.
Key Factors to Consider
- NAC Breda has struggled this season with 7 points and inconsistent form, especially defensively, while Groningen is mid-table with 12 points, displaying slightly better resilience and more stable form.
- In the last five meetings, NAC Breda and Groningen have each won once with the other games mostly drawn, indicating a balanced historical matchup.
- No major injury updates are reported for either team, suggesting both squads are near full strength.
- The match is at NAC Breda's home ground, the Rat Verlegh Stadion, where they tend to start strongly, benefiting from home support. No adverse weather or scheduling conditions noted.
- Groningen aims to maintain or improve their top-six position, while NAC Breda is motivated to climb out of the relegation zone, creating high competitive intensity.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | NAC Breda +156, Groningen +172, Draw +230 | Draw | β β β ββ 58% |
Spread | Groningen 0 -102, NAC Breda 0 -118 | NAC Breda 0 spread | β β β ββ 62% |
Over/under | Over 2.25 -125, Under 2.25 +105 | Under 2.25 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Draw 25% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 23% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Draw at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the balance in head-to-head results, recent form, and home advantage, the highest expected value lies in betting on a draw in the moneyline market, NAC Breda on the spread (due to home advantage in a close game), and under 2.25 goals given cautious approaches by both sides.
Predicted Score: 1-1