Match Analysis: Carlos Leal vs Muslim Salikhov – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-26
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Game Overview
Carlos Leal and Muslim Salikhov meet in a welterweight MMA bout at UFC Abu Dhabi with contrasting styles and statistics. Leal is the heavy favorite with faster strike output, while Salikhov's defense and striking accuracy remain notable.
Key Factors to Consider
- Leal has a higher significant strike rate (9.65/min) and accuracy (50%) but takes more incoming strikes (7.73/min). Salikhov lands fewer strikes (3.38/min) but defends better, absorbing only 2.90 significant strikes/min and blocking 62%.
- No direct head-to-head history between Leal and Salikhov available for this matchup, making form and style matchup critical.
- No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the bout.
- Fight takes place in Abu Dhabi, neutral ground likely minimizing travel fatigue impacts. Both fighters compete professionally to advance welterweight rankings.
- Leal is favored heavily and likely motivated to justify his status, while Salikhov as underdog aims to capitalize on defensive strengths and upset potential.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Carlos Leal -500 / Muslim Salikhov +375 | Carlos Leal | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Not explicitly provided; implied -1.5 rounds for Leal | Carlos Leal by more than 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds -145 / Under 1.5 rounds +115 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Carlos Leal -8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 29% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 29% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Carlos Leal to win by moneyline
Predicted Score: Carlos Leal wins by TKO in round 2