Match Analysis: Brahyan Zurcher vs Murtazali Magomedov – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-24
- Time: 1:30 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, USA
Game Overview
Brahyan Zurcher and Murtazali Magomedov are two undefeated featherweight prospects meeting on Dana White's Contender Series. Both are 9-0 professionally, but bring contrasting skill sets: Zurcher is a technically polished striker with relentless pace, while Magomedov is a taller, aggressive grappler with strong submission finishing ability. The matchup features a clash between Zurcher's pressure and durability versus Magomedov's early submission threat and control.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both fighters are undefeated; Zurcher has notable success in PFL with powerful striking and good grind-down skills. Magomedov holds a regional featherweight championship, demonstrating finishing ability especially via submissions and strikes inside the first two rounds.
- No previous head-to-head matchup. Both fighters are undefeated, making this a high-stakes risk for both.
- No reported recent injuries for either fighter. Zurcher had some canceled fights last year but no injuries mentioned. Both appear physically ready.
- Fight held at UFC Apex with a live ESPN+ stream in the US and UFC Fight Pass internationally. The platform and exposure increase stakes for both.
- Both fighters seek to secure UFC contracts and maintain unbeaten records. Magomedov may lean on his finishing skills early; Zurcher motivated to upset a submission specialist and prove UFC readiness.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Brahyan Zurcher: -140, Murtazali Magomedov: 120 | Murtazali Magomedov | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | Magomedov -1.5 rounds: -110, Zurcher +1.5 rounds: -110 | Magomedov -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds: -185, Under 1.5 rounds: 161 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Murtazali Magomedov 17% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 83% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 83% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 51.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline pick for Murtazali Magomedov to win via early submission or TKO due to his finishing prowess and height/pace advantage. Spread pick favors Magomedov by -1.5 rounds given the likelihood of a finish inside the distance. Over/Under pick is Under 1.5 rounds because both have high finish rates and this fight is expected to end before or during the second round.
Predicted Score: Magomedov wins via submission or TKO Round 2