Match Analysis: Brahyan Zurcher vs Murtazali Magomedov – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-24
- Time: 1:30 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, USA
Game Overview
Highly anticipated featherweight bout between undefeated fighters Brahyan Zurcher and Murtazali Magomedov at Dana White's Contender Series Season 9, Week 7. Both fighters are 9-0 MMA records, making this a clash of top prospects aiming to secure UFC contracts. Zurcher brings technical polish and a relentless work rate from PFL experience, while Magomedov offers superior finishing skills, particularly in submissions, and a notable physical height advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Brahyan Zurcher has demonstrated technical striking and grinding pressure with a 5-0 run in PFL and a second-round KO win in his last fight. Murtazali Magomedov has shown speed, aggression, and finishing ability, with recent wins by KO and submission defenses in his home region and Octagon League Featherweight Championship.
- No prior head-to-head meetings. Both enter undefeated, making this their first direct competition, which adds unpredictability.
- No reported injuries or health issues for either fighter ahead of the bout.
- Fighting at UFC Apex in Las Vegas gives a neutral venue. The contest is featured on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass with significant stakes, as both fighters vie for UFC roster spots.
- Strong motivation on both sides to maintain undefeated status and secure UFC contracts. Magomedov’s recent title defense provides confidence, while Zurcher aims to translate PFL success into UFC breakthrough.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Brahyan Zurcher: -140, Murtazali Magomedov: 120 | Murtazali Magomedov | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5: -185, Under 1.5: 161 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Brahyan Zurcher 28% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 83% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 83% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 51.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
While Zurcher’s technical ability and relentless pace could control the later stages, Magomedov’s reach advantage and submission threats make him the slight favorite. The fight may hinge on whether Magomedov can finish early or survive Zurcher’s pressure. Prediction favors Murtazali Magomedov to win, with a possibility of early submission or KO victory.
Predicted Score: Murtazali Magomedov wins by submission or KO in round 2