Match Analysis: Murtaza Talha vs Baysangur Susurkaev – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-12
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Game Overview
This middleweight MMA bout features undefeated Baysangur Susurkaev (8-0) against Murtaza Talha Ali (7-1). Susurkaev is a younger rising prospect with a high knockout rate, while Talha Ali is a slightly older, experienced competitor with a balanced fight finish record. The fight is part of the Contender Series 2025: Week 1 event and marks a key opportunity for both fighters to secure UFC recognition.
Key Factors to Consider
- Susurkaev holds an 8-0 record with 7 knockouts, showcasing high finishing power and an aggressive striking style. Talha Ali has a record of 7-1, with 4 knockouts and 3 submissions, demonstrating versatility in finishes and experience handling diverse fight scenarios.
- There is no history of previous fights between Murtaza Talha Ali and Baysangur Susurkaev, making this matchup an initial test of styles and adaptability.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the event; both appear medically cleared and in typical fight shape.
- The fight's venue is UFC APEX, a controlled environment favoring fighters experienced with UFC-level production. Susurkaev is stepping in on short notice replacing Damian Pinas, which may affect preparation time but could also enhance motivation.
- Susurkaev, as a younger fighter with an undefeated streak and high KO ratio, is likely highly motivated to maintain his perfect record and prove himself at a higher level. Talha Ali, with one loss, may be motivated to reaffirm his status and push for advancement in the UFC ranks.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Baysangur Susurkaev: -275, Murtaza Talha: 215 | Baysangur Susurkaev to win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Susurkaev: -1.5, Talha: +1.5 | Susurkaev to win by 2 or more rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: 1.85, Under 2.5 rounds: 1.95 | Under 2.5 rounds (fight likely to end early) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Baysangur Susurkaev -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Baysangur Susurkaev at -7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Baysangur Susurkaev is favored to win by knockout due to his perfect record, high KO percentage, and strong recent performances, despite short notice. Talha Ali's experience and submission threat provide a competitive edge, but the power and youth of Susurkaev likely tilt the outcome in his favor.
Predicted Score: Baysangur Susurkaev wins by KO/TKO in Round 1 or 2