Match Analysis: Naoya Inoue vs Murodjon Akhmadaliev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-14
• Time: 10:00 AM UTC
• Location: Aichi International Arena, Nagoya, Japan

Game Overview

Naoya Inoue, the undisputed super bantamweight champion with a perfect 30-0 record and 90% KO rate, faces Murodjon Akhmadaliev, a strong challenger with a 14-1 record and 79% KO rate. The fight holds four major belts and is highly anticipated in the super bantamweight division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Inoue remains undefeated in 30 fights, having stopped his last 10 opponents via TKO/KO, showing dominance and high finishing ability. Akhmadaliev, after one career loss in 2023, has won his last three fights convincingly.
• This is their first professional meeting; therefore, no direct H2H data exists.
• No reported injuries for either boxer leading into the fight; both preparing at full strength.
• The fight is held in Nagoya, Japan, Inoue’s home country, providing a potential home advantage. The bout garners significant public and promoter attention with no broadcast rights announced yet, possibly increasing fighters' motivation.
• Inoue aims to maintain his undefeated legacy and undisputed status. Akhmadaliev seeks redemption after his only recent loss and to claim multiple world titles, significantly motivating him.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Naoya Inoue: -1000, Murodjon Akhmadaliev: 600	Naoya Inoue	★★★★☆ 89%
Spread	Naoya Inoue -3.5 rounds: -350, Murodjon Akhmadaliev +3.5 rounds: 280	Naoya Inoue -3.5 rounds (win by stoppage before round 4)	★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under	Over 8.5 rounds: -130, Under 8.5 rounds: 100	Under 8.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Naoya Inoue -2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 8.5 30%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Naoya Inoue wins by TKO/KO

Predicted Score: Naoya Inoue wins by TKO in round 7