Match Analysis: Muhammadjon Naimov vs Bogdan Grad – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-21
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Baku Crystal Hall, Baku, Azerbaijan
Game Overview
This featherweight UFC main card bout between Muhammadjon Naimov of Tajikistan and Bogdan Grad of Austria is scheduled for June 21, 2025, at Baku Crystal Hall. Both fighters bring strong professional records and have recent wins showcasing resilience and power respectively. Naimov is the betting favorite, known for his well-rounded skillset and training with elite teams, while Grad is a powerful striker with a recent TKO victory.
Key Factors to Consider
- Muhammadjon Naimov holds a professional MMA record of 12 wins and 3 losses and recently won by decision over Kaan Ofli, showing endurance and tactical fighting ability. Bogdan Grad has a record of 15 wins and 2 losses, highlighted by a recent TKO win over Lucas Alexander, demonstrating significant knockout power.
- No prior head-to-head encounters between Muhammadjon Naimov and Bogdan Grad have been recorded, making this a fresh matchup without historical matchup data.
- There are no public reports of injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, suggesting both are entering the fight in peak condition.
- The fight takes place at Baku Crystal Hall, where Naimov is fighting for the first time and has expressed positive impressions of the event's high standards. No external conditions such as travel issues or weather appear likely to impact the fight.
- Naimov is motivated by his preparation with top-level training partners and the desire to climb UFC rankings. Grad is equally motivated, coming off a strong recent TKO victory and aiming to continue his ascent. Both fighters are expected to be highly driven.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Muhammadjon Naimov: -278, Bogdan Grad: 225 | Muhammadjon Naimov | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Muhammadjon Naimov: -140, Bogdan Grad: 100, spread_points: 3.5 | Muhammadjon Naimov to cover -3.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | over_1.5: -250, under_1.5: 190 | Over 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Muhammadjon Naimov -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 -13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Muhammadjon Naimov at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Muhammadjon Naimov is favored to win by decision due to his tactical approach, endurance, and superior preparation. Bogdan Grad’s knockout power presents a significant threat and could change the fight dynamics if he capitalizes early. Overall, Naimov’s consistent performance and proven resilience give him the edge.
Predicted Score: Muhammadjon Naimov wins by decision after 3 rounds