Match Analysis: Jesus Pinedo vs Movlid Khaybulaev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-01
• Time: 10:30 PM UTC
• Location: Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, New Jersey

Game Overview

The 2025 PFL World Featherweight Title bout features former 2023 PFL Featherweight Champion Jesus Pinedo versus undefeated 2021 PFL Featherweight Champion Movlid Khaybulaev. Both fighters are elite featherweights with contrasting styles: Pinedo is an aggressive striker known for finishing fights with powerful knockouts, while Khaybulaev employs dominant Dagestani wrestling to control and outgrapple opponents. The bout is set for five rounds and will decide the divisional supremacy and tournament champion.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jesus Pinedo holds a professional record of 25-6-1 with a recent finishing streak characterized by explosive striking and knockout power. Movlid Khaybulaev is unbeaten at 23-0-1 (1 NC), renowned for his smothering wrestling style and relentless ground control that neutralizes opponents effectively.
• Pinedo and Khaybulaev have not fought previously, making this a highly anticipated first-time encounter between two former PFL featherweight champions with contrasting skill sets.
• No reported injuries were found for either fighter ahead of the bout, indicating both should be at full health on fight night.
• The fight takes place at the prestigious Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall as part of the PFL World Tournament Finals, with significant prize money and divisional prestige on the line. This high-stakes environment may affect fighter motivation and strategy.
• Pinedo is motivated to reclaim the featherweight crown after winning in 2023 and is coming off a strong run of finishes. Khaybulaev is driven to maintain his undefeated status and prove his dominance with a second PFL tournament title.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jesus Pinedo: -165, Movlid Khaybulaev: 135	Jesus Pinedo	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Jesus Pinedo: -1.5, Movlid Khaybulaev: +1.5	Jesus Pinedo to win by more than 1.5 rounds (i.e., clear win)	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	over_3.5_rounds: -110, under_3.5_rounds: -110	Over 3.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jesus Pinedo -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jesus Pinedo at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Pinedo's heavy striking style versus Khaybulaev’s grappling dominance, the fight likely hinges on whether Pinedo can avoid takedowns to utilize his knockout power. The betting favorite and more probable winner is Jesus Pinedo at -165 odds, with Khaybulaev as underdog at +135. The prediction favors Pinedo winning via knockout or decision by outstriking, but Khaybulaev’s grappling could drag the fight to a decision or submission if Pinedo fails to keep it standing.

Predicted Score: Jesus Pinedo wins by unanimous decision or knockout in round 3 or 4

Match Analysis: Movlid Khaybulaev vs Tae Kyun Kim – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-13
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Nashville

Game Overview

Movlid Khaybulaev faces Tae Kyun Kim in the PFL World Featherweight Tournament semifinals. Khaybulaev is a former champion with a strong grappling background, while Kim is a rising contender known for his quickness and striking skills.

Key Factors to Consider

• Khaybulaev holds a significant record of 24-0-1, with a strong grappling skillset. Kim poses a challenge with his speed and striking abilities.
• No previous head-to-head matches between the fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight is part of the PFL tournament, which can be physically demanding. Khaybulaev has experience in this format, having previously won the championship.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Khaybulaev seeking to reclaim his title and Kim looking to make a statement in the tournament.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-210 (Khaybulaev), 170 (Kim)	Khaybulaev	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Movlid Khaybulaev 14%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Movlid Khaybulaev at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Khaybulaev is favored to win due to his experience and grappling skills.

Predicted Score: Khaybulaev by submission in Round 2

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Joseph Luciano vs. Sarek Shields Prediction	Joseph Luciano Win	-290	★★★★☆ 72% (72%)
Movlid Khaybulaev vs. Tae Kyun Kim Prediction	Movlid Khaybulaev Win	-210	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)
Jason Danner vs. Nathan Gilmore Prediction	Jason Danner Win	-300	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +165

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $52.94

Match Analysis: Jeremy Kennedy vs Movlid Khaybulaev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: April 4, 2025
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: Universal Studios, Florida

Game Overview

Jeremy Kennedy faces Movlid Khaybulaev in the opening round of the PFL World Tournament. Khaybulaev, undefeated with a record of 20-0-1, presents a formidable challenge as a former PFL tournament winner. Kennedy, with a record of 19-5, has training familiarity with Khaybulaev, having spent time at American Kickboxing Academy together.

Key Factors to Consider

• Movlid Khaybulaev's undefeated record and past success in the PFL make him a strong contender. Jeremy Kennedy has a solid MMA background but faces an opponent with a significant reputation for grappling.
• The fighters have no prior official bouts against each other, but they have trained together. This familiarity might reduce anxiety for Kennedy and could impact their strategies.
• No notable recent injuries have been reported for either fighter.
• The venue and media attention might not significantly impact these experienced fighters, but Kennedy's familiarity with Khaybulaev could provide a psychological edge.
• Both fighters are highly motivated by the tournament format and the prospect of advancing. Kennedy sees this as an opportunity to make a statement by defeating a top seed.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence

Predicted Outcome

Movlid Khaybulaev is favored to win due to his undefeated record and past achievements in the PFL.

Predicted Score: Khaybulaev wins via submission in Round 2.

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Magomed Umalatov vs. Logan Storley Prediction	Magomed Umalatov Win	-330	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Mukhamed Berkhamov vs. Thad Jean Prediction	Thad Jean Win	-250	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Jeremy Kennedy vs. Movlid Khaybulaev Prediction	Movlid Khaybulaev Win	-750	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +107

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $41.35