Match Analysis: Jesus Pinedo vs Movlid Khaybulaev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-01
• Time: 10:30 PM UTC
• Location: Undisclosed (PFL World Tournament Finals Venue)

Game Overview

Jesus Pinedo vs Movlid Khaybulaev is a highly competitive PFL lightweight final scheduled for August 1, 2025. Both fighters are near career peak, with contrasting styles: Pinedo is aggressive with strong finishing power, while Khaybulaev has precise striking and a more methodical pace. Odds open with Pinedo as a slight favorite but market movement shows some uncertainty.

Key Factors to Consider

• Pinedo has been on a hot streak with several recent finishes, leveraging aggressive striking and wrestling. Khaybulaev has consistently outpointed opponents using technical striking and solid grappling defense, staying undefeated in recent bouts. Both show excellent conditioning and well-rounded skills.
• No prior head-to-head meetings, so tactical matchup largely speculative. Pinedo's aggression could test Khaybulaev's composure and counter-striking.
• No reported major injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, both expected to be at full strength.
• Event is a PFL final, so motivation and stakes are extremely high for both. Fighting on neutral ground reduces home advantage bias.
• Both fighters motivated by massive PFL title and prize, likely to bring their best performances. Slight edge to Khaybulaev for maintaining an undefeated 2025 run, enhancing confidence.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jesus Pinedo: -165, Movlid Khaybulaev: +135	Movlid Khaybulaev	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Movlid Khaybulaev -1.5: +200, Jesus Pinedo +1.5: -250	Jesus Pinedo +1.5 (spread)	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Movlid Khaybulaev 36%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Movlid Khaybulaev at 36% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Movlid Khaybulaev to win via decision

Predicted Score: Movlid Khaybulaev wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Movlid Khaybulaev vs Tae Kyun Kim – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: June 13, 2025
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Nashville

Game Overview

This highly anticipated semifinal match in the PFL world featherweights tournament will feature Movlid Khaybulaev, a former champion with a record of 24-0-1, against Tae Kyun Kim, who boasts a 11-1 record. Khaybulaev is known for his grappling skills, while Kim is strong in striking and decent in wrestling.

Key Factors to Consider

• Khaybulaev has been unbeaten in his career and has extensive experience in the PFL. Kim, though less experienced, has shown promising skills in his fights.
• This will be the first encounter between the two fighters, so there is no prior head-to-head data.
• There are no reported injuries for either fighter.
• The match will be held in Nashville, which may not give either fighter a significant home advantage.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Khaybulaev seeking to reclaim his title and Kim looking to upset a top contender.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Movlid Khaybulaev: -210, Tae Kyun Kim: 170	Movlid Khaybulaev	★★★★☆ 80%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Movlid Khaybulaev -99%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Movlid Khaybulaev is predicted to win due to his superior grappling skills and experience.

Predicted Score: Decision victory for Movlid Khaybulaev

Match Analysis: Jeremy Kennedy vs Movlid Khaybulaev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: April 4, 2025
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: Universal Studios, Florida

Game Overview

Jeremy Kennedy faces Movlid Khaybulaev in the opening round of the PFL World Tournament. Khaybulaev, undefeated with a record of 20-0-1, presents a formidable challenge as a former PFL tournament winner. Kennedy, with a record of 19-5, has training familiarity with Khaybulaev, having spent time at American Kickboxing Academy together.

Key Factors to Consider

• Movlid Khaybulaev's undefeated record and past success in the PFL make him a strong contender. Jeremy Kennedy has a solid MMA background but faces an opponent with a significant reputation for grappling.
• The fighters have no prior official bouts against each other, but they have trained together. This familiarity might reduce anxiety for Kennedy and could impact their strategies.
• No notable recent injuries have been reported for either fighter.
• The venue and media attention might not significantly impact these experienced fighters, but Kennedy's familiarity with Khaybulaev could provide a psychological edge.
• Both fighters are highly motivated by the tournament format and the prospect of advancing. Kennedy sees this as an opportunity to make a statement by defeating a top seed.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence

Predicted Outcome

Movlid Khaybulaev is favored to win due to his undefeated record and past achievements in the PFL.

Predicted Score: Khaybulaev wins via submission in Round 2.

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Magomed Umalatov vs. Logan Storley Prediction	Magomed Umalatov Win	-330	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Mukhamed Berkhamov vs. Thad Jean Prediction	Thad Jean Win	-250	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Jeremy Kennedy vs. Movlid Khaybulaev Prediction	Movlid Khaybulaev Win	-750	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +107

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $41.35