Match Analysis: Alice Ardelean vs Montserrat Ruiz – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Game Overview
Strawweight bout between Alice Ardelean (10-7, recent Fight of the Night winner, solid volume striker) and Montserrat Conejo Ruiz (10-4, returning after a nearly two-year layoff following three straight TKO losses). Bookmakers heavily favor Ardelean due to Ruiz’s inactivity and recent defensive struggles.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ardelean lands 6.73 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy, but absorbs 5.04 per minute with a 57% defense rate. Ruiz connects only 0.79 significant strikes per minute at 27% accuracy and allows 4.96 per minute, defending just 37%—significant defensive vulnerabilities[1]. Ardelean is coming off a strong win and a controversial debut loss, while Ruiz has been knocked out in her last three fights and has not fought since late 2023[2][3].
- This is the first meeting between these two fighters.
- No reported injuries for either fighter.
- Both fighters made weight at 115 lbs. Ruiz’s long layoff and poor recent striking defense are major concerns[1][2]. Ardelean’s momentum and activity are significant advantages.
- Ardelean is eager to build on her recent win and climb the rankings. Ruiz is under pressure to prove she still belongs in the UFC after a long absence and a string of knockout losses[2].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alice Ardelean -355 / Montserrat Ruiz +280 | Alice Ardelean | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Alice Ardelean -3.5 -120 / Montserrat Ruiz +3.5 -110 | Alice Ardelean -3.5 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 -280 / Under 2.5 +210 | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alice Ardelean -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 102% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 102% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 48.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Expect Ardelean to dominate the striking exchanges early, potentially landing a knockout, but if Ruiz survives the first round, Ardelean likely cruises to a wide decision. Ruiz’s defensive liabilities and inactivity make a competitive fight unlikely.
Predicted Score: Ardelean via KO/TKO in Round 2 or unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)