Match Analysis: Moktar Benkaci vs Nawras Abzakh – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: The Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Game Overview
This bantamweight semifinal fight at the PFL MENA 3 2025 Semifinals features Moktar Benkaci from France facing Nawras Abzakh from Jordan. Both fighters weigh around 61 kg and are competing for a spot in the tournament final. Benkaci has more professional MMA experience and comes in on a short winning streak, while Abzakh is known for his decision and submission abilities. The fight is highly anticipated as both fighters bring strong, well-rounded skills.
Key Factors to Consider
- Moktar Benkaci has demonstrated a consistent winning form recently, showing strength in knockouts (39%), decisions (31%), and submissions (29%). Nawras Abzakh tends to win mostly by decision (37%) and submission (32%), with fewer knockouts (32%). Benkaci's experience and recent form are advantages.
- There is no detailed record of previous direct matches between Benkaci and Abzakh, suggesting this may be their first encounter at a professional level.
- No reported injuries or weight issues for either fighter after the official weigh-in, with Benkaci at 136 lbs and Abzakh at 135.8 lbs, both making weight comfortably.
- The fight takes place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, potentially neutral ground for both fighters, minimizing home advantage. The bout is part of a high-pressure PFL MENA semifinal card streamed live, which could affect performance under pressure.
- Both fighters are highly motivated to win to advance to the regional final, but Benkaci's short winning streak and experience in professional bouts may provide psychological confidence over Abzakh.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Moktar Benkaci: -290, Nawras Abzakh: 235 | Moktar Benkaci | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Moktar Benkaci: -1.5 (-150), Nawras Abzakh: +1.5 (+130) | Moktar Benkaci to win by 2 or more rounds | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | Over: 1.85, Under: 1.95 | Over 2.5 rounds (fight going beyond early stoppages) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Moktar Benkaci -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Moktar Benkaci at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moktar Benkaci is favored to win due to higher experience, recent form, and a stronger knockout record. The prediction is for a finish by knockout or decision in favor of Benkaci.
Predicted Score: Moktar Benkaci wins by KO in round 3