Match Analysis: Valter Walker vs Mohammed Usman – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot, Rio de Janeiro (Prelims)

Game Overview

The UFC prelims heavyweight matchup features Valter Walker (14-1, 3-1 UFC) against Mohammed Usman (11-4, 4-2 UFC) on October 11, 2025. Walker is a submission specialist known for his heel hook finishes, while Usman is more of a decision fighter with moderate success. The bout is key for both fighters to improve their UFC standing.

Key Factors to Consider

• Valter Walker comes in with a 14-1 record, including recent impressive submission wins by heel hook, showing dominance on the ground. Mohammed Usman holds an 11-4 record and has mostly gone to decision in his UFC fights, with less finishing ability and some recent struggles against tougher opponents.
• No direct previous fights between Walker and Usman. The styles suggest Walker's grappling advantage may be decisive against Usman's endurance and striking ability.
• No reported injuries for either fighter going into the match.
• The fight is part of the UFC prelims card in Rio, which could impact crowd energy but unlikely affects fighter performance significantly. Both fighters are motivated to progress within the UFC heavyweight ranks.
• Walker is highly motivated to continue his submission streak and capitalize on his recent momentum. Usman aims to prove himself with a win against the favored Walker and break his pattern of decision losses.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Mohammed Usman: +250, Valter Walker: -310	Valter Walker	★★★★☆ 82%
Spread	Mohammed Usman +3.5: +140, Valter Walker -3.5: -195	Valter Walker -3.5	★★★★☆ 74%
Over/under	Over 2.5: +120, Under 2.5: -154	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 78%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Valter Walker 1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Valter Walker to win by submission, likely via heel hook, with high confidence given his recent form and finish rate.

Predicted Score: Valter Walker wins by submission in Round 1 or 2

Match Analysis: Hamdy Abdelwahab vs Mohammed Usman – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-21
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Baku Crystal Hall, Baku, Azerbaijan

Game Overview

The UFC Fight Night event features a heavyweight bout between Hamdy Abdelwahab and Mohammed Usman. Abdelwahab, undefeated with a 6-0-0 record, faces the more experienced Usman, who holds an 11-4-0 record. The fight marks a significant matchup in the heavyweight division prelims, showcasing contrasting styles: Abdelwahab's efficiency and defense versus Usman's volume striking and reach advantage.

Key Factors to Consider

• Hamdy Abdelwahab connects on 3.40 significant strikes per minute with a 51% accuracy and defends 51% of incoming strikes. Mohammed Usman strikes at a slightly higher rate of 3.41 per minute but with only 36% accuracy and defends 50% of strikes against him. Abdelwahab also absorbs fewer strikes per minute (3.87) compared to Usman (4.41).
• There is no recorded previous encounter between Hamdy Abdelwahab and Mohammed Usman, making this their first head-to-head match.
• No current injury reports are available for either fighter leading into this bout.
• The fight takes place at Baku Crystal Hall in Azerbaijan, which is a neutral venue for both fighters, potentially minimizing home crowd advantage. Both fighters are motivated to progress in the heavyweight division given their career trajectories and the high-profile nature of the event.
• Hamdy Abdelwahab, undefeated at 32 years old, aims to maintain his perfect record and further establish himself. Mohammed Usman, the more seasoned 36-year-old, is motivated to prove his experience and secure a key win against a rising contender.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Hamdy Abdelwahab: -160, Mohammed Usman: 140	Hamdy Abdelwahab to win	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	over_2.5: -220, under_2.5: 180	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Hamdy Abdelwahab -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 93%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 93% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 51.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Hamdy Abdelwahab is favored to win due to his superior striking accuracy, defensive capabilities, and undefeated record, despite Usman's reach and experience.

Predicted Score: Hamdy Abdelwahab wins by unanimous decision or late-round TKO within 3 rounds

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – June 21, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Azat Maksum Prediction	Under 2.5	185	100%
Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Mohammed Usman Prediction	Under 2.5	180	93%
Rafael Fiziev vs. Ignacio Bahamondes Prediction	Under 2.5	145	47%

Combined Odds: +1855 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $391.02