Match Analysis: Jordan Vucenic vs Torpal Merjoev – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: Indigo at The O2, London
Game Overview
The lightweight bout between Jordan Vucenic and Torpal Merjoev is a featured main card fight at Cage Warriors 196 on November 15, 2025. Vucenic, a seasoned fighter with Cage Warriors title experience and previous UFC fights, faces rising Norwegian prospect Merjoev, who is undefeated with a record of 6-0 and eager to make a statement on a big stage in London.
Key Factors to Consider
- Jordan Vucenic holds a significant experience advantage with a 13-4 record including multiple wins by submission and decision. Merjoev, although undefeated at 6-0, has less experience and has finished fewer opponents by knockout or submission. Vucenicβs diverse finishing ability and experience in high-pressure fights favor him.
- The fighters have not previously faced each other, making this a fresh and unpredictable matchup.
- No reported injuries have been disclosed for either fighter leading into the bout.
- The fight takes place in London at the Indigo at The O2, a venue where Vucenic has had legendary moments and previous big fights, potentially giving him a psychological edge.
- Merjoev is highly motivated to climb the ranks and sees this fight as a breakthrough opportunity. Vucenic is motivated to maintain his status as a top lightweight and leverage his experience to secure another high-profile victory.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jordan Vucenic: -600, Torpal Merjoev: 350 | Jordan Vucenic | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Jordan Vucenic: -1.5, Torpal Merjoev: +1.5 | Jordan Vucenic to win by more than 1.5 rounds or a clear finish | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | over_2.5_rounds: -110, under_2.5_rounds: -110 | Under 2.5 rounds, expecting a tactical pace with a likely finish or decision before extended rounds | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jordan Vucenic -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Jordan Vucenic at -7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jordan Vucenic is favored to win by leveraging his experience and versatility against the less seasoned but motivated Merjoev. Expect a tactical fight with potential for Vucenic to win via submission or decision.
Predicted Score: Jordan Vucenic wins by submission or decision within 2 to 3 rounds