Viacheslav Borshchev vs. Matheus Camilo Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Matheus Camilo MMA/Boxing November 15, 2025 Viacheslav Borshchev

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Match Analysis: Viacheslav Borshchev vs Matheus Camilo – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 15, 2025
• Time: 11:05 PM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York

Game Overview

UFC 322 Early Prelims Lightweight Division matchup featuring Viacheslav Borshchev (8-6-1 UFC record) facing Matheus Camilo (9-3 professional record, 0-1 UFC record). This is a late-addition fight to the UFC 322 card, with Camilo stepping in on short notice after his originally scheduled opponent Abdul Karim Alawadi had to withdraw. Camilo, the betting favorite, will look to bounce back from a disappointing UFC debut loss against Gabe Green. Borshchev, despite a losing UFC record, enters as a grappling specialist with submission capabilities.

Key Factors to Consider

• Matheus Camilo enters as the betting favorite with moneyline odds of -162, indicating bookmaker confidence in his abilities despite his recent UFC loss. His professional record of 9-3 shows he has competed at a high level, and analysts highlight his grappling and submission skills including kamura and triangle armbar submissions. Viacheslav Borshchev carries a 3-5-1 UFC record but has demonstrated grappling prowess, particularly in takedown defense and submission capability. Camilo's last performance against Gabe Green was criticized as lackluster, suggesting potential motivation issues or stylistic challenges.
• No prior head-to-head history exists between these fighters. This is their first scheduled matchup. Camilo was originally scheduled to face Abdul Karim Alawadi before the opponent withdrawal led to this matchup three weeks later.
• No known injuries or medical concerns reported for either fighter as of the current date. Camilo's quick turnaround from his previous fight against Gabe Green (approximately 3 weeks prior) warrants consideration regarding physical conditioning and recovery, though no official injury reports exist.
• This is an early prelims fight on the UFC 322 main card, which features the main event between Jack Della Maddalena and Islam Makhachev for the welterweight title. The early prelims time slot (11:05 PM UTC) may affect viewership but provides both fighters with adequate rest and recovery time. Camilo's short-notice replacement scenario and the three-week turnaround from his previous bout represent potential preparation concerns.
• Camilo faces significant motivation to recover from his disappointing UFC debut loss and prove his worth in the organization after a lackluster performance against Gabe Green. Borshchev, with a losing UFC record of 3-5-1, faces career pressure to secure wins. However, Camilo's status as a late replacement and the compressed timeline may indicate either high confidence or desperation, depending on context. The early prelims positioning suggests lower stakes compared to main card fights.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Camilo -162 / Borshchev +136	Matheus Camilo wins	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Camilo -3.5 (-105) / Borshchev +3.5 (-125)	Camilo wins decisively within 3.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 2.5 (130) / Under 2.5 (-166)	Under 2.5 rounds (fight ends before round 3)	★★★★☆ 71%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Matheus Camilo 13%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 9%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Matheus Camilo at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Matheus Camilo is predicted to win this matchup via submission in the second round. Analysts emphasize that Camilo's grappling and submission specialists advantage represents a significant skill gap, particularly exploiting what is described as 'a glaring hole' in Borshchev's submission defense game. While Borshchev demonstrates solid grappling fundamentals and takedown defense (as shown in his performance against Dabshak Navatov), Camilo's recent triangle armbar development and kamura victories provide specific technical advantages. However, Camilo's recent poor performance against Gabe Green introduces uncertainty regarding his mental state and consistency, preventing maximum confidence in this prediction.

Predicted Score: Matheus Camilo via submission (triangle armbar or similar grappling technique) at 3:15 of Round 2

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Baysangur Susurkaev vs. Eric McConico Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Baysangur Susurkaev Eric McConico MMA/Boxing November 15, 2025

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Match Analysis: Baysangur Susurkaev vs Eric McConico – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-15
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City

Game Overview

Baysangur Susurkaev, an undefeated 24-year-old Russian fighter with a 10-0 record featuring nine stoppage wins, faces Eric McConico, a 35-year-old American with a record of 10-3-1, at UFC 322. Susurkaev is coming off a quick submission victory in his UFC debut and has had a full training camp. McConico, fighting out of MMA Lab in Arizona, recently secured a split decision win and aims to challenge the rising prospect. The fight is in the middleweight division and is part of a major UFC pay-per-view event.

Key Factors to Consider

• Susurkaev is undefeated with a high finishing rate, showing effective striking and submissions. McConico has a solid experience base with 10 wins but has faced more losses and fewer stoppages than Susurkaev. Susurkaev has shown rapid progression entering UFC with back-to-back wins including a submission in his debut; McConico has momentum after a split decision win but less finishing power.
• No prior fights between Susurkaev and McConico exist, making this a first encounter. The matchup features a younger, undefeated striker grappling with a more experienced but less dominant opponent.
• No known injuries have been reported for either fighter before the match.
• The fight is at Madison Square Garden, a prestigious venue providing a big stage that may benefit the rising star Susurkaev with the crowd energy. No external conditions such as weather or travel issues reported that could influence performance.
• Susurkaev aims to solidify his UFC status with a strong second win, particularly targeting a first-round knockout. McConico seeks to build on his recent UFC victory and prove he can defeat the undefeated prospect to maintain his relevance in the division.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Baysangur Susurkaev: -1050, Eric McConico: 675	Baysangur Susurkaev	★★★★★ 92%
Spread	Baysangur Susurkaev -7.5: -575, Eric McConico +7.5: 350	Baysangur Susurkaev to cover the -7.5 spread	★★★★☆ 85%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: 195, Under 1.5 rounds: -260	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Baysangur Susurkaev -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -17%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Baysangur Susurkaev at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Baysangur Susurkaev is predicted to win by first or second-round stoppage due to superior striking, grappling ability, and the momentum of entering the UFC undefeated with high finishing rates. Eric McConico is expected to struggle to match Susurkaev's power and pace.

Predicted Score: Susurkaev wins by submission or KO in Round 1 or Round 2

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Gerald Meerschaert vs. Kyle Daukaus Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Gerald Meerschaert Kyle Daukaus MMA/Boxing November 15, 2025

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Match Analysis: Gerald Meerschaert vs Kyle Daukaus – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-15
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City

Game Overview

The upcoming UFC 322 middleweight bout features Gerald Meerschaert (37-20-0) versus Kyle Daukaus (16-4-0, 1 NC), both southpaw fighters with well-rounded skill sets. Daukaus, aged 32, is slightly taller at 6'2" with a 76" reach, while Meerschaert, aged 37, is 6'1" with a 77" reach. Daukaus is favored heavily in betting markets, reflecting a perception of higher skill, especially in grappling and submission attempts, though Meerschaert brings experience and a solid takedown defense to the cage.

Key Factors to Consider

• Kyle Daukaus maintains an effective striking average of 3.25 significant strikes per minute at a 53% accuracy, along with rigorous submission attempts (1.9 tries per 15 minutes). Gerald Meerschaert averages slightly fewer significant strikes per minute (3.02) with 45% accuracy and attempts fewer submissions (1.4 per 3 rounds). Meerschaert succeeds in stopping 42% of opponent takedown attempts but only completes takedowns on 30% of his attempts. Daukaus offers a higher rate of finishes and consistent fight control.
• No previous fight between Meerschaert and Daukaus has been recorded, making this their first encounter. The matchup pits a younger, highly active submission grappler against a veteran with deep experience in the UFC middleweight division.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter ahead of the bout have been noted.
• The bout takes place in Madison Square Garden, a neutral but iconic venue, with no significant external disruptions or conditions reported. Both fighters have had normal fight preparations.
• Kyle Daukaus appears motivated to prove himself by securing a first-round finish as indicated in recent interviews, showing confidence and aggressive mindset. Gerald Meerschaert brings veteran experience and will aim to withstand the early pressure and capitalize on any openings later in the fight.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Gerald Meerschaert: 330, Kyle Daukaus: -425	Kyle Daukaus to win	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Gerald Meerschaert +7.5: 115, Kyle Daukaus -7.5: -155	Kyle Daukaus covers the -7.5 spread	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: -175, Under 1.5 rounds: 135	Fight goes over 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Kyle Daukaus -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Kyle Daukaus is favored to win based on superior striking efficiency, higher submission rate, and betting odds. The fight likely ends via decision or submission in favor of Daukaus, with Meerschaert potentially extending the fight but facing difficulties imposing his game plan.

Predicted Score: Kyle Daukaus wins by submission or decision in round 2 or 3

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Beneil Dariush vs. Benoit Saint-Denis Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Beneil Dariush Benoit Saint-Denis MMA/Boxing November 15, 2025

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Match Analysis: Beneil Dariush vs Benoit Saint-Denis – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-15
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Game Overview

UFC 322 features a pivotal lightweight bout between Beneil Dariush (#9 ranked) and Benoit Saint-Denis (#13 ranked) on the main card. Both fighters are known for their well-rounded skill sets, with Dariush boasting a decorated grappling pedigree and Saint-Denis earning a reputation as an aggressive, high-volume striker. The fight is expected to be a tactical battle, with both men capable of finishing via knockout or submission. Saint-Denis has recently added a head MMA coach, signaling a shift toward a more structured approach, while Dariush remains a consistent top-10 contender.

Key Factors to Consider

• Benoit Saint-Denis has won his last two fights, rebounding from consecutive losses to Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano. His recent performances have showcased improved discipline and a more balanced approach, especially after hiring an MMA head coach. Beneil Dariush has been a fixture in the top 10, with a record of 10 wins in his last 12 fights. He is known for his elite grappling and ability to control fights on the ground.
• This is the first professional meeting between Dariush and Saint-Denis. Both fighters have faced similar competition, with Dariush having more experience at the highest level. Saint-Denis has shown he can handle top-tier grapplers, but Dariush’s pedigree is arguably superior.
• No significant injuries have been reported for either fighter leading up to the event.
• The fight takes place at Madison Square Garden, a venue known for its electric atmosphere. Saint-Denis has expressed excitement about fighting in New York, which could provide a motivational boost. Dariush, however, is accustomed to high-pressure environments and has fought in major venues before.
• Saint-Denis is motivated to prove he belongs among the elite after recent setbacks. Dariush is looking to solidify his position in the top 10 and potentially earn a title shot with a win.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Beneil Dariush: 155, Benoit Saint-Denis: -180	Benoit Saint-Denis	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Beneil Dariush: 3.5 105, Benoit Saint-Denis: -3.5 -135	Benoit Saint-Denis -3.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over: 1.5 -165, Under: 1.5 125	Over 1.5	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Benoit Saint-Denis -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 -12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Benoit Saint-Denis at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Benoit Saint-Denis is favored by the bookmakers and has shown significant improvement in his recent fights. However, Dariush’s experience and grappling prowess make this a close contest. The fight is likely to be decided by who can impose their will early, with Saint-Denis’s striking and Dariush’s grappling as the key factors. A decision or late finish is possible, but Saint-Denis’s momentum and improved game management give him a slight edge.

Predicted Score: Benoit Saint-Denis wins by decision or late finish

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Rodolfo Vieira vs. Bo Nickal Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Bo Nickal MMA/Boxing November 15, 2025 Rodolfo Vieira

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Match Analysis: Rodolfo Vieira vs Bo Nickal – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 15, 2025
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: Not specified in available data

Game Overview

UFC 322 features a significant matchup between Bo Nickal and Rodolfo Vieira. Bo Nickal, the away team favorite, is looking to bounce back after suffering his first career loss and being moved down to the UFC 322 prelims. Rodolfo Vieira presents a challenge for Nickal's comeback attempt in this preliminary card bout.

Key Factors to Consider

• Bo Nickal enters this fight off his first career loss, which represents a notable setback in his previously undefeated record. This is a significant turning point in his career trajectory. Rodolfo Vieira's recent performance metrics and career record are not detailed in the available data.
• No previous matchup history between these fighters is available in the provided data.
• No injury information is available for either fighter.
• Bo Nickal's demotion from the main card to the prelims following his first career loss may impact his mental state and preparation. The preliminary card positioning suggests lower perceived stakes compared to main card fights.
• Bo Nickal has strong motivation to return to winning ways after his first career loss and regain his trajectory toward top-tier competition. Rodolfo Vieira has an opportunity to make a statement against a previously undefeated fighter.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Bo Nickal: -205 | Rodolfo Vieira: 170	Bo Nickal wins	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Bo Nickal: -3.5 (-105) | Rodolfo Vieira: 3.5 (-125)	Bo Nickal by submission or decision with a margin greater than 3.5 rounds/points	★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -166 | Under 2.5: 130	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Bo Nickal -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 44%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 44% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 33.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Bo Nickal is favored to win this matchup, as reflected in the moneyline odds of -205. His previous undefeated record, despite the recent loss, suggests superior experience and skill compared to Vieira. Nickal's motivation to bounce back after adversity may provide additional drive.

Predicted Score: Bo Nickal wins by submission or knockout in Round 2; Fight does not go to full distance (Under 2.5 rounds)

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Angela Hill vs. Fatima Kline Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Angela Hill Fatima Kline MMA/Boxing November 15, 2025

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Match Analysis: Angela Hill vs Fatima Kline – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 15, 2025
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City

Game Overview

Angela Hill (18-15-0, 40 years old) faces Fatima Kline (8-1-0, 25 years old) in a women's strawweight bout at UFC 322. Hill is an experienced veteran seeking to extend her career at a late stage, while Kline is an undefeated prospect with 8 wins and only 1 loss in her record, though competing at the UFC level. This represents a classic matchup between experience and youth, with significant disparities in fight records and career trajectories.

Key Factors to Consider

• Angela Hill lands 5.43 significant strikes per minute with 50% accuracy, demonstrating superior striking volume compared to Kline's 3.94 strikes per minute at 49% accuracy. However, Hill's defense is notably weaker, allowing 4.92 significant strikes per minute versus Kline's 2.29. Hill defends 60% of incoming strikes while Kline defends 59%. In wrestling, Kline significantly outperforms Hill, achieving 60% takedown accuracy compared to Hill's 30%, though Hill demonstrates better takedown defense at 74% versus Kline's 50%. Hill's reach advantage is 64 inches versus Kline's 67 inches, giving Kline a slight edge in physical dimensions.
• No previous matchup history exists between these fighters. This is their first encounter, making comparative historical analysis unavailable.
• No injury information is available in the search results for either fighter.
• The fight takes place at Madison Square Garden in New York City, one of the most prestigious venues in combat sports, which may influence fighter performance and crowd dynamics. The main card presentation on ESPN+ PPV indicates this is a significant UFC 322 event.
• Kline enters as a younger prospect with a near-perfect record (8-1), seeking to establish herself as a top contender and capitalize on her momentum. Hill, at 40 years old with a .545 win percentage (18-15), faces potential pressure regarding her career longevity and relevance, potentially serving as motivational fuel despite the age disadvantage.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Angela Hill +390 / Fatima Kline -520	Fatima Kline	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Angela Hill +5.5 (-115) / Fatima Kline -5.5 (-115)	Fatima Kline -5.5	★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under	Over 2.5 (-375) / Under 2.5 (270)	Under 2.5	★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Fatima Kline 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 170%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 170% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 63% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Fatima Kline is strongly favored to win this bout. The odds and fighter metrics overwhelmingly support Kline's victory. Despite Hill's superior striking volume and accuracy, Kline's significantly better takedown success rate (60% vs 30%), superior defensive striking metrics (2.29 vs 4.92 strikes absorbed per minute), and improved takedown defense (50% vs 74% for Hill) create multiple pathways to victory. Kline's youth, undefeated record, and technical wrestling superiority position her to control the fight's pace and dictate the engagement. Hill's experience provides value as an underdog, but the statistical and biographical data favor Kline decisively.

Predicted Score: Fatima Kline wins via submission or decision in Round 2 or 3 (estimated 65% probability of Rounds 1-2 finish, 35% probability of decision).

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Michael Morales vs. Sean Brady Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Michael Morales MMA/Boxing November 15, 2025 Sean Brady

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Match Analysis: Michael Morales vs Sean Brady – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 15, 2025
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: Not specified in available data

Game Overview

UFC 322 features a welterweight clash between Sean Brady (ranked #12) and Michael Morales (ranked #8). Brady is coming off a dominant victory over a former title challenger, while Morales has been competing at a high level in the welterweight division. This matchup represents a significant test for both fighters as they jockey for position in the competitive welterweight rankings.

Key Factors to Consider

• Sean Brady has demonstrated strong recent form with dominant performances in his last fights, particularly showing strong striking accuracy and cardio advantage. Michael Morales has been consistently competitive in the welterweight rankings and brings solid offensive capabilities.
• No previous head-to-head matchup data available in the search results.
• No injury information available in the search results.
• The fight is scheduled for UFC 322 at the UFC Apex. Market trading data shows significant betting activity with slight preference toward Brady.
• Both fighters are motivated to improve their ranking position, with Brady looking to continue his upward trajectory and Morales seeking to establish himself as a top contender.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Michael Morales: +110 | Sean Brady: -130	Sean Brady wins	★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread	Michael Morales +3.5 (-170) | Sean Brady -3.5 (130)	Sean Brady -3.5	★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under	Over 2.5 (-170) | Under 2.5 (130)	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Sean Brady -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 27%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sean Brady is favored to win this matchup. His recent dominant performances, superior striking accuracy (75% landing rate), and demonstrated cardio give him the edge over Morales. Brady's momentum and ranking trajectory suggest he will control the majority of the fight.

Predicted Score: Sean Brady defeats Michael Morales via submission or TKO in rounds 3-4, controlling the fight through superior cardio and striking accuracy.

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Roman Kopylov vs. Gregory Rodrigues Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Gregory Rodrigues MMA/Boxing November 15, 2025 Roman Kopylov

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Match Analysis: Roman Kopylov vs Gregory Rodrigues – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-15
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden

Game Overview

Roman Kopylov and Gregory Rodrigues are set to face off in a middleweight bout at UFC 322, scheduled for November 15, 2025, at Madison Square Garden. Both fighters are ranked in the middleweight division, with Kopylov holding a record of 14-4 and Rodrigues at 17-6. The fight is part of the prelims and is expected to be a striking-heavy contest, with both fighters showing strong offensive and defensive stats.

Key Factors to Consider

• Roman Kopylov lands 4.74 significant strikes per minute with a 50% accuracy rate, while Gregory Rodrigues lands 5.54 significant strikes per minute with a 51% accuracy rate. Kopylov defends 53% of significant strikes, whereas Rodrigues defends 50%. Rodrigues has a higher takedown success rate (38%) and takedown defense (90%) compared to Kopylov. Kopylov attempts more submissions (0.7 finishes per 15 minutes) than Rodrigues (0.3 finishes per 15 minutes).
• This is the first meeting between Roman Kopylov and Gregory Rodrigues. No previous fights or direct matchups exist.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the event.
• The fight is taking place at Madison Square Garden, a neutral venue. Both fighters are in their prime, with no significant external factors affecting their performance.
• Both fighters are motivated to secure a win and improve their rankings in the middleweight division. Rodrigues has expressed confidence in his recent performances and is looking to continue his momentum.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Gregory Rodrigues: -185, Roman Kopylov: 154	Gregory Rodrigues	Not available
Spread	Gregory Rodrigues: -3.5, Roman Kopylov: 3.5	Gregory Rodrigues -3.5	Not available
Over/under	Over: 1.5, Under: 1.5	Over 1.5	Not available

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Gregory Rodrigues -6%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Gregory Rodrigues is favored to win this bout due to his higher striking output, better takedown success, and strong defensive skills. However, Kopylov's submission attempts and solid striking accuracy make him a dangerous opponent. The fight is likely to be close, but Rodrigues' edge in takedowns and overall striking should give him the advantage.

Predicted Score: Gregory Rodrigues wins by decision or TKO

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Pat Sabatini vs. Chepe Mariscal Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Chepe Mariscal MMA/Boxing November 15, 2025 Pat Sabatini

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Match Analysis: Pat Sabatini vs Chepe Mariscal – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-15
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York

Game Overview

This match is a featherweight rematch at UFC 322 between Pat Sabatini and Chepe Mariscal, marking a long-awaited showdown nearly seven and a half years after their first fight in 2018. Both fighters have shown significant growth, with Mariscal known for relentless pressure and volume striking, and Sabatini holding a strong submission grappling skill set. The fight is scheduled for three rounds and expected to feature a classic striker versus grappler dynamic.

Key Factors to Consider

• Chepe Mariscal is undefeated in recent UFC fights with a five-fight win streak, applying high-volume striking at 4.75 significant strikes per minute with 57% accuracy and strong cardio. Pat Sabatini has a 20-5 record, with 12 submission wins, improved striking and relentless submission hunting, averaging 1.99 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Sabatini defends strikes better, taking 1.22 significant strikes per minute compared to Mariscal's 3.07.
• Their previous meeting in 2018 ended with different dynamics; this is a rematch with both fighters having significantly elevated their games. Detailed prior results are scarce, but current form heavily favors Mariscal's pressure and volume striking against Sabatini’s grappling control.
• No reported injuries or fitness concerns for either fighter leading up to the event.
• The fight takes place at the iconic Madison Square Garden, with UFC’s high-profile event atmosphere adding motivation. Both fighters have considerable motivation to prove superiority in a long-awaited rematch, contributing to a highly competitive environment.
• Mariscal is motivated by his current undefeated UFC streak and his aggressive, never-back-down fighting style. Sabatini is motivated by his recent wins showcasing improvement and the chance to assert dominance with his submission game, aiming to exploit Mariscal’s defensive gaps.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Pat Sabatini: -130, Chepe Mariscal: 110	Pat Sabatini	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Pat Sabatini: -3.5 145, Chepe Mariscal: 3.5 -200	Pat Sabatini -3.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	over: 2.5 -200, under: 2.5 154	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Pat Sabatini 6%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 40%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 40% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Pat Sabatini is predicted to win by submission or decision as he can neutralize Mariscal’s striking pressure with his grappling expertise. Mariscal’s high-volume striking and cardio make him a tough opponent, but Sabatini’s durability and submission prowess give him a tactical edge, particularly if he manages to bring the fight to the ground.

Predicted Score: Pat Sabatini wins via submission or decision within 3 rounds

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Tracy Cortez vs. Erin Blanchfield Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Erin Blanchfield MMA/Boxing November 15, 2025 Tracy Cortez

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Match Analysis: Tracy Cortez vs Erin Blanchfield – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 15, 2025
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City

Game Overview

UFC 322 features a highly anticipated rematch between flyweight contenders Tracy Cortez and Erin Blanchfield. This is a significant bout for both fighters as they compete on the same card as the co-main event featuring Valentina Shevchenko vs. Zhang, which increases the stakes for a potential title shot. Both fighters have evolved significantly since their previous Invicta encounter, making this rematch substantially different from their first meeting. The bout takes place at Madison Square Garden in New York City, where Cortez previously faced unfavorable crowd reception.

Key Factors to Consider

• Erin Blanchfield enters as the betting favorite (-258 moneyline odds), indicating sportsbooks assess her as the stronger competitor heading into this matchup. Tracy Cortez, listed at +210 odds, is positioned as the underdog despite her notable popularity and development as a fighter. Both competitors are operating at their natural flyweight division and are actively competing at the elite UFC level.
• This is a rematch of a previous Invicta bout where these fighters competed earlier in their careers. Both athletes have acknowledged significant evolution and improvements since that first encounter. Blanchfield has particularly developed her grappling, which Cortez identified as a key area to address. Cortez emphasized that the rematch will be fundamentally different from their previous meeting, suggesting she has made adjustments to counter Blanchfield's strengths.
• No specific injuries or health concerns are mentioned in available information regarding either fighter for this bout.
• The venue advantage is a significant consideration. This bout takes place at Madison Square Garden in New York City. While Cortez expressed excitement about performing at MSG and expecting strong fan support due to her Hispanic heritage and popularity in the region, she previously faced unfavorable crowd reactions during an earlier MSG appearance against Molly McCann. The timing of both fighters competing on the same card as the co-main event suggests high visibility and potential consequences for the winner regarding title shot positioning.
• Both fighters view this rematch as a critical stepping stone toward a title shot. Blanchfield noted that fighting on the same timeline as the champion and on the same card makes the winner much closer to title contention. The rematch provides both competitors with an opportunity to settle the previous result and prove their development as fighters. Cortez stated she is focused on proving herself deserving of her position rather than proving others wrong, indicating internal motivation and confidence in her improvements.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Erin Blanchfield: -258 | Tracy Cortez: +210	Erin Blanchfield Victory	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Erin Blanchfield: -3.5 (120) | Tracy Cortez: +3.5 (-165)	Erin Blanchfield -3.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 2.5 (-445) | Under 2.5 (310)	Under 2.5 Rounds	★★★★☆ 74%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Erin Blanchfield -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 138%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 138% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 44.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Erin Blanchfield is favored to win this rematch based on comprehensive odds analysis and her positioning as the betting favorite. The -258 moneyline reflects approximately 72% implied probability in her favor. However, this is a competitive matchup with Tracy Cortez presenting legitimate threats and having made notable improvements. The rematch nature of the bout and Cortez's familiarity with Blanchfield's style, combined with potential home crowd support at Madison Square Garden, creates a scenario where upset potential exists despite the mathematical preference for Blanchfield.

Predicted Score: The overwhelming over/under odds (-445 on Over 2.5 rounds) suggest bookmakers project a relatively quick finish. Predicted outcome: Erin Blanchfield wins via submission or knockout in Rounds 2-3, approximately 7-9 minutes into the bout. The heavy Under 2.5 rounds preference indicates expectations for a decisive performance by the favored fighter rather than an extended competitive bout reaching the championship rounds.

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