Match Analysis: Shauna Bannon vs Sam Hughes – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 4:15 PM UTC
• Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

The upcoming strawweight fight at UFC Paris features Shauna Bannon (7-1) against Sam Hughes (10-6). Both fighters weigh in at 115 lbs and stand 5'5" tall. Bannon, known as 'Mama B,' is a switch fighter with a 65" reach, while Hughes fights orthodox with a slightly shorter reach. Both athletes exhibit similar significant strike stats, with Hughes having a slight edge in strike defense. The bout is expected to be competitive given their styles and records.

Key Factors to Consider

• Shauna Bannon holds a stronger win-loss record (7-1) compared to Sam Hughes (10-6). Bannon connects on 4.77 significant strikes per minute landing 43% overall, while Hughes connects on 4.41 but lands 46%. Bannon allows fewer significant strikes (3.88 per minute) than Hughes (4.57), but Hughes defends a higher percentage of opponents’ strikes at 58% versus Bannon’s 44%.
• There is no documented prior head-to-head matchup between Shauna Bannon and Sam Hughes, making this their first encounter inside the Octagon.
• No current injury reports or concerns have been disclosed for either fighter approaching the bout.
• The fight takes place in Paris, France, potentially favoring neither fighter geographically as both compete internationally. Event scheduling places this bout in prelims at midday local time, which might influence crowd energy and fighter motivation.
• Shauna Bannon, with an impressive recent record, aims to solidify her rising status in the strawweight division. Sam Hughes, being more experienced numerically, looks to leverage her durability and defensive skills to stay relevant and advance in the rankings.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Sam Hughes: -340, Shauna Bannon: +270	Sam Hughes to win	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Sam Hughes -3.5: -115, Shauna Bannon +3.5: -115	Sam Hughes -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -475, Under 2.5: +325	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Sam Hughes -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 251%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 251% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 77.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sam Hughes is favored to win by decision due to slightly better strike defense and higher odds backing, but Shauna Bannon’s accurate striking and durability suggest a competitive fight with a notable chance for an upset.

Predicted Score: Sam Hughes wins by decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Kauê Fernandes vs Harry Hardwick – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

The UFC Paris event features a lightweight bout between Kauê Fernandes and Harry Hardwick. Fernandes, with a record of 10-2, was originally set to face Fares Ziam, who withdrew due to a family emergency. Harry Hardwick, Cage Warriors featherweight champion with a 13-3-1 record, steps in on less than one week’s notice for his UFC debut, moving up a weight division to face Fernandes. The fight is on the UFC Paris preliminary card.

Key Factors to Consider

• Kauê Fernandes is an experienced lightweight with solid UFC and international experience standing at 10-2. Harry Hardwick brings high-level championship experience from Cage Warriors at featherweight, though stepping up in weight and fighting on short notice may affect his performance.
• No previous fights or direct head-to-head records exist between Kauê Fernandes and Harry Hardwick, making this a fresh matchup without prior fight history for comparison.
• No reported injuries for either fighter, but Hardwick’s readiness could be impacted by the short notice of the fight.
• The bout takes place at UFC Paris’ Accor Arena. Hardwick replaced the local Frenchman Fares Ziam, originally Fernandes’ opponent, which might reduce home crowd advantage for Fernandes. Hardwick’s late signing could affect preparation.
• Fernandes will look to capitalize on home crowd support and a full training camp. Hardwick aims to make a strong UFC debut, motivated by stepping in on short notice and moving up a division to a higher-profile stage.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Harry Hardwick: +140, Kauê Fernandes: -160	Kauê Fernandes win	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Fernandes -1.5 rounds: -110, Hardwick +1.5 rounds: -110	Fernandes by decision or finish within 3 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -205, Under 2.5 rounds: +177	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Kauê Fernandes -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 72%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 72% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 40.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Kauê Fernandes’ full camp preparation, weight suitability, and home advantage against a last-minute opponent stepping up in weight, Fernandes is favored to win, though Hardwick's championship pedigree makes it competitive.

Predicted Score: Fernandes wins by unanimous decision or late stoppage within 3 rounds

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Match Analysis: Lany Silva vs Aieza Bertolso – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: Musiva, Cuiabá, Brazil

Game Overview

LFA 216 features a strawweight world championship bout between reigning champion Lany Silva (7-1) and undefeated challenger Aieza Bertolso (6-0). Silva is making her first title defense against Bertolso, a hometown favorite. Both fighters successfully made weight (115 lbs), and the fight is highly anticipated for its fast pace and aggressive clinch work, with high potential for scrambles and transitions highlighting Brazilian MMA talent.

Key Factors to Consider

• Lany Silva holds a strong record with 7 wins and 1 loss, showcasing a balanced finishing ability with knockouts, submissions, and decisions. Aieza Bertolso remains undefeated with 6 wins, excelling in submissions and maintaining an aggressive, finishing style that includes a significant number of submissions and TKOs.
• This is their first matchup. Silva's experience as a champion and slightly longer professional tenure contrasts with Bertolso's undefeated status and hometown advantage. Their styles promise a competitive contest, with Silva having more decision wins and Bertolso leaning more on submissions.
• No injuries were reported for either fighter following the official weigh-ins, and both made weight successfully, indicating no last-minute health or weight cutting issues.
• The fight is headlined in Cuiabá, Brazil, giving Bertolso the hometown edge with local support. The event is sold out, and the energy and pressure may influence their performances. Broadcast and commentary by reputable MMA personalities enhance exposure and stakes.
• Silva aims to defend her title and solidify her status as a top strawweight contender globally. Bertolso seeks her first title and sustains an undefeated record which positions her as a rising star in Brazilian MMA, adding strong personal and professional motivations for both fighters.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Lany Silva: -145, Aieza Bertolso: +125, Draw: +2500	Lany Silva	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Lany Silva -1.5: +120, Aieza Bertolso +1.5: -140	Lany Silva -1.5	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Considering Silva's championship experience and slightly more balanced finishing record against Bertolso's undefeated momentum and home crowd advantage, the prediction leans towards a close decision victory for Lany Silva with a tactical finish, leveraging her composure in title defenses.

Predicted Score: Lany Silva wins by decision after 3 rounds

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Match Analysis: Marcelo Marques vs Felipe Oliveira – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, Brazil

Game Overview

The bout features featherweights Marcelo Marques and Felipe Oliveira at LFA 216. Marques is undefeated with an 11-0 record, showcasing a grappling style focused on submissions and decisions. Oliveira holds an 11-4 record with a more explosive approach, noted for his KO/TKO power and aggression in striking. Both fighters made weight successfully at featherweight for the event held in Cuiabá, Brazil. The fight highlights a contest between Marques’ calculated, crafty grappling and Oliveira’s knockout striking ability.

Key Factors to Consider

• Marcelo Marques is undefeated, with 4 submission wins and 4 decision wins, showing consistency and technical grappling prowess. Felipe Oliveira, with 11 wins and 4 losses, shows more finishing power with 3 KO/TKO and 2 submission wins, preferring an aggressive, explosive style. Marques' defensive grappling could challenge Oliveira’s striking power.
• No previous head-to-head fights between Marcelo Marques and Felipe Oliveira recorded. Both fighters bring contrasting styles, with Oliveira having a slightly longer reach (175 cm vs 170 cm) and height advantage.
• No reported injuries disclosed for either fighter ahead of the match. Both made weight at featherweight without issues, indicating good health and readiness.
• The fight is part of a sold-out LFA 216 event with live commentary by UFC veterans. Held in Brazil, possibly favoring Oliveira culturally, but Marques’ professionalism and undefeated status suggest focus on performance over location.
• Marques aims to maintain his undefeated status and demonstrate technical dominance in the featherweight division. Oliveira seeks to leverage finishing ability to overcome Marques, improve his record, and make a statement in this co-main event.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Marcelo Marques: +140, Felipe Oliveira: -160	Felipe Oliveira to win	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Marcelo Marques +1.5: +120, Felipe Oliveira -1.5: -140	Marcelo Marques +1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Marques' undefeated record and grappling control against Oliveira's knockout power, a closely contested match is expected with a slight edge to Oliveira due to finishing ability and reach advantage.

Predicted Score: Felipe Oliveira wins by TKO in the 2nd round

Match Analysis: Daniel Araujo vs Thomas Bryan – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-05
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: Malai Manso Resort, Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, Brazil

Game Overview

The Bantamweight bout at LFA 216 features undefeated Daniel Araújo (7-0) against Thomas Bryan (7-3). Both fighters stand 5'9" with a reach of 68.1 inches, matching physically closely. Araújo has a perfect record emphasizing striking power with 6 KO/TKO wins, while Bryan shows a mixed finishing ability with KO and submission victories but also brings 3 losses. The fight is scheduled for three 5-minute rounds.

Key Factors to Consider

• Daniel Araújo enters with a flawless 7-0 record and dominant striking, mainly winning by KO/TKO quickly. Thomas Bryan, at 7-3, has proven finishing ability but less consistency and more experience with losses. Araújo’s recent winning streak and finishing rate suggest higher momentum.
• No previous fights between the two. Their styles contrast: Araújo is predominantly a striker with KO/TKO power; Bryan utilizes submissions and decisions with fewer knockouts. The matchup is a test of Araújo’s striking skill against Bryan’s diverse finishing methods.
• No known reported injuries to either fighter ahead of the bout. Both passed weigh-in close to Bantamweight limit: Araújo at 135.8 lbs, Bryan’s last weigh-in unreported but presumably on target for the bout.
• Fight takes place in Brazil, Araújo’s home country, possibly providing crowd support. Both fighters are relatively young and physically similar, minimizing external physical advantages.
• Araújo seeks to maintain an undefeated record and establish himself further in LFA rankings, showing aggressive finishing ability. Bryan aims to upset a rising star, improve his record, and rebound from recent setbacks. Motivation levels appear high for both with Araújo favored to maintain dominance.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Daniel Araujo: -800, Thomas Bryan: 425	Daniel Araujo	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Daniel Araujo: -1.5 rounds -350, Thomas Bryan: +1.5 rounds +280	Daniel Araujo to win by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under	over 1.5 rounds: -150, under 1.5 rounds: +120	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Daniel Araujo 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Daniel Araujo at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Daniel Araújo is favored to win by KO/TKO due to his undefeated record, striking prowess, and faster finishes, with a high likelihood of ending the fight in the first or second round before Bryan can establish grappling control.

Predicted Score: Daniel Araújo wins by KO/TKO in Round 1 or 2

Match Analysis: Jeremy Kennedy vs Jeremy Henry – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-04
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Battlefield Fight League, Vancouver, BC, Canada

Game Overview

The interim lightweight title fight at Battlefield Fight League 84 features Jeremy Kennedy returning to regional competition and fighting in his hometown for the first time since 2016. Jeremy Henry, a former lightweight title challenger known for his aggressive style and finishing ability, will face Kennedy for the interim belt. Kennedy has moved up permanently to lightweight and comes with experience and recent success, while Henry is a high-volume competitor with multiple recent regional titles and a reputation for finishing fights early.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jeremy Kennedy holds a strong record of 19-7, highlighted by his recent wins and a move to lightweight that aligns with his natural training weight, minimizing weight-cut stress. Jeremy Henry, with an 8-7 record, has been competitive and successful in multiple regional title bouts, finishing opponents early and demonstrating resilience. Henry’s high activity in 2024 with 7 fights and 3 promotional titles contrasts with Kennedy’s strategic return.
• There are no previous recorded head-to-head encounters between Jeremy Kennedy and Jeremy Henry, making this matchup an initial test of styles and adaptability.
• No recent injuries have been reported for either fighter in available data, with Kennedy emphasizing that he is injury-free and ready for the bout.
• Kennedy benefits from the home advantage, fighting in Vancouver, his hometown, which may boost confidence and fan support. Henry’s experience on platforms like UFC Fight Pass and past championship fights indicate strong mental and competitive readiness.
• Kennedy is motivated by a return to form and the desire to succeed at lightweight with a permanent move, aiming to reclaim dominance in his hometown. Henry seeks to prove doubters wrong once again by capturing an interim title after winning multiple regional championships despite underdog status.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jeremy_Kennedy: -2500, Jeremy_Henry: 1200	Jeremy Kennedy	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Kennedy_-1.5_rounds: -110, Henry_+1.5_rounds: -110	Kennedy -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	over_3.5_rounds: -115, under_3.5_rounds: -105	Under 3.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jeremy Kennedy -12%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jeremy Kennedy at -12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jeremy Kennedy is favored to win this bout by decision or stoppage, leveraging his experience, weight class comfort, and home advantage. However, Jeremy Henry’s finishing ability and recent momentum mean an upset is possible, particularly early in the fight.

Predicted Score: Kennedy wins by unanimous decision or stoppage in round 3 or 4

Match Analysis: Eduardo Henrique vs An Tuan Ho – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-03
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Dana White's Contender Series (undisclosed venue)

Game Overview

The match features a flyweight bout between Eduardo Henrique, a highly experienced striker with a strong record, and An Tuan Ho, a young but promising Vietnamese-American fighter with solid knockout power. Both fighters carry strong recent performances, achieving four wins in their last five fights. Henrique is favored due to his striking capability and UFC experience, whereas An Tuan Ho is considered a high-level prospect still adjusting to the UFC level.

Key Factors to Consider

• Eduardo Henrique has a record of 14-2, showing dominance especially in striking, while An Tuan Ho holds a 7-1 record, noted for 71.4% KO wins but less UFC experience. Both are on good winning streaks recently.
• This is the first official bout between Eduardo Henrique and An Tuan Ho; no direct head-to-head data available.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter ahead of this match.
• An Tuan Ho is slightly younger (age 24) and somewhat less experienced at UFC level, which might influence performance. Henrique's maturity and experience might provide an advantage. No other external distractions reported.
• Both fighters appear highly motivated — Henrique to prove his striking skill in UFC, An Tuan Ho to validate his potential and secure his UFC tenure.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Eduardo Henrique: -155, An Tuan Ho: 135	Eduardo Henrique	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Eduardo Henrique: -1.5, An Tuan Ho: +1.5	Eduardo Henrique -1.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	over: 130, under: -150, line: 2.5 rounds	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Eduardo Henrique 2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 8%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Eduardo Henrique is predicted to win by knockout or technical knockout due to superior striking and UFC experience. The fight is expected not to go the distance, favoring Henrique's aggressive style and precision.

Predicted Score: Eduardo Henrique wins via KO/TKO in Round 2

Match Analysis: Samuel Silva vs Mandel Nallo – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-02
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Dana White's Contender Series, Week 4

Game Overview

The fight is a lightweight bout at 155 pounds between Samuel Silva, the reigning Cage Warriors Lightweight Champion, and Mandel Nallo, a former Bellator contender and current Samourai MMA Lightweight Champion. Both fighters are entering on significant win streaks — Silva with five consecutive wins including three finishes, and Nallo with a recent four-fight streak of first-round finishes. The matchup is seen as evenly matched, offering no easy path for either given their high-level credentials and somewhat different career trajectories.

Key Factors to Consider

• Samuel Silva has demonstrated adaptability with international experience across LFA, RCC, and Shooto Brasil, which contributes to his technical versatility. Mandel Nallo trains out of Tristar Gym under Firas Zahabi, known for high-level preparation and strategic fight planning. Nallo's recent finishing runs indicate aggressive efficiency, while Silva's championship bout experience commands a gritty resilience.
• No prior direct matches between Samuel Silva and Mandel Nallo have taken place, making this their first encounter. Both have comparable overall records with Silva at 13-4-1 and Nallo at 13-3-0, showcasing similarly experienced lightweight credentials.
• No reported injuries or health concerns for either fighter leading into the match.
• The fight's setting on Dana White's Contender Series Week 4 adds increased motivation and pressure, as a UFC contract is likely on the line. Both fighters have expressed respect for the matchup and regard it as a prime opportunity without an easy path forward—creating an environment of heightened focus and competitive stakes.
• Both Silva and Nallo are highly motivated, coming off winning streaks and championship titles in their respective promotions. Nallo acknowledges the tough stylistic challenge Silva presents, while Silva has momentum from his recent championship upset. With a UFC contract at stake, both fighters’ drive and determination are expected to be peaking.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Mandel Nallo: +165, Samuel Silva: -190	Samuel Silva	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	Samuel Silva: -1.5	Samuel Silva by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under	over 1.5 rounds: -127, under 1.5 rounds: +107	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Samuel Silva -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 22%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Samuel Silva is narrowly favored due to his recent successes at a high international level and experience in championship scenarios, combined with his slightly more active fight schedule recently. However, Mandel Nallo’s finishing ability and elite gym environment keep this fight highly competitive. Prediction favors Silva via decision or late stoppage with about 60% confidence.

Predicted Score: Samuel Silva wins by decision or stoppage in Round 3 or later

Match Analysis: Theo Haig vs Cezary Oleksiejczuk – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-02
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Dana White's Contender Series 80

Game Overview

The match between Theo Haig and Cezary Oleksiejczuk is a classic striker versus grappler style fight, with Oleksiejczuk being the more experienced and powerful striker and Haig an undefeated grappler relying on submissions. Oleksiejczuk holds a significant reach advantage and KO power, while Haig excels in submissions but is untested against a fighter of Oleksiejczuk's caliber.

Key Factors to Consider

• Cezary Oleksiejczuk has a professional record of 15-3 with eight KO wins and is known for striking power. Theo Haig is undefeated at 6-0, winning all fights by submission, demonstrating high grappling proficiency.
• This is their first encounter; no direct head-to-head history exists.
• No reported injuries for either fighter in the lead-up to this match.
• The fight takes place in Dana White's Contender Series, a high-stakes platform where fighters aim to secure UFC contracts, adding strong motivation for both. Oleksiejczuk fights in the middleweight division with an approximate 4-inch reach advantage.
• Both fighters are highly motivated given the UFC contract implications. Oleksiejczuk seeks to prove himself at this level, having a brother in the UFC, while Haig aims to maintain his undefeated record and show he can compete with experienced strikers.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Cezary Oleksiejczuk: -280, Theo Haig: +240	Cezary Oleksiejczuk	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	over: +118, under: -138	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Cezary Oleksiejczuk -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Cezary Oleksiejczuk is favored to win due to his experience, striking, and power advantage. However, Theo Haig's grappling and submission skills could present a significant threat if he manages to take the fight to the ground. The predicted outcome is a late finish by Oleksiejczuk on the feet.

Predicted Score: Cezary Oleksiejczuk wins by KO/TKO late in round 2

Match Analysis: David Mgoyan vs Tommy McMillen – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-02
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

Game Overview

This Dana White's Contender Series featherweight bout features the undefeated Russian-Armenian prospect David Mgoyan (7-0) against the undefeated American wrestler Tommy McMillen (8-0). Both fighters showcase high finishing rates with a combined 15 finishes in 16 fights, suggesting an aggressive, decisive matchup unlikely to go the distance.

Key Factors to Consider

• Mgoyan is a younger fighter by six years with similar fight experience but has shown moments of tentativeness and poor decisions in past fights, while McMillen, fighting out of America with strong wrestling credentials and unorthodox striking, has finished every opponent in the first round except one by submission or KO/TKO.
• This is their first meeting.
• McMillen suffered an AC joint separation a year prior forcing a fight withdrawal but has since recovered fully and is motivated to prove himself; no recent injuries reported for Mgoyan.
• The fight takes place at the UFC Apex with Dana White’s Contender Series spotlight, adding pressure as both fighters seek a UFC contract. McMillen had a late change in opponent and is well prepared with at least 2-3 weeks training.
• McMillen is motivated to become the first American featherweight champion amidst perceived overseas dominance, while Mgoyan looks to maintain his undefeated record and showcase his potential ceiling given his youth.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	David Mgoyan: -194, Tommy McMillen: 169	Tommy McMillen to win	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	David Mgoyan: -1.5, Tommy McMillen: +1.5	Tommy McMillen +1.5 round spread	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over: -153, Under: 133	Over 1.5 rounds (fight lasting more than 1.5 rounds)	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	David Mgoyan 80%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 -9%

🔥 Best Value Pick: David Mgoyan at 80% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 47.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Tommy McMillen is predicted to win by submission given his aggressive style, reach advantage, and high finishing power despite Mgoyan's technical grappling skills. The fight is expected to end in the early rounds with McMillen landing a fight-ending move from an unorthodox angle before securing a submission.

Predicted Score: Tommy McMillen wins via submission in Round 1 or early Round 2