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Modestas Bukauskas vs. Paul Craig Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Modestas Bukauskas vs Paul Craig – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-06
  • Time: 8:45 PM UTC
  • Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

The upcoming UFC Fight Night 258 light heavyweight bout features Modestas Bukauskas vs Paul Craig. Bukauskas, a 31-year-old Lithuanian-British striker standing 6'3" with a 78" reach, has been in strong form with four wins in his last five fights. Paul Craig, a 37-year-old Scottish orthodox fighter also 6'3" tall but with a 76" reach, is coming off a three-fight skid including a no-contest. Bukauskas is favored to win, largely due to his recent performances and superior striking efficiency.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Bukauskas lands 3.26 significant strikes per minute at 42% accuracy and defends 51% of strikes aimed at him. Craig lands 2.54 strikes per minute at 45% accuracy but absorbs fewer strikes per minute (3.00 vs 4.07). Bukauskas' recent winning momentum contrasts with Craig's downturn.
  • No previous fights between Bukauskas and Craig, making this their first encounter.
  • No reported injuries affecting either fighter currently.
  • Bukauskas benefits from positive betting market momentum, with odds shortening steadily. The fight being held at a high-profile venue (Accor Arena, Paris) adds prominence but no known external disruptions reported.
  • Bukauskas is eager to prove himself as a legitimate contender in the division and motivated by his recent successful run. Craig aims to halt his losing streak and regain standing, bringing veteran experience but possibly less confidence.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Modestas Bukauskas: -355, Paul Craig: +280 Modestas Bukauskas ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Modestas Bukauskas: -3.5 -230, Paul Craig: +3.5 +165 Modestas Bukauskas wins by more than 3.5 points (dominant victory) ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 1.5 rounds: -140, Under 1.5 rounds: +110 Over 1.5 rounds (fight lasting beyond midway of round 2) ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Modestas Bukauskas -4%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 1.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Modestas Bukauskas is predicted to win by KO/TKO given his superior recent form, striking output, and favorable betting market sentiment.

Predicted Score: Modestas Bukauskas wins via TKO/KO in round 2 or late round 1


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Bolaji Oki vs. Mason Jones Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Bolaji Oki vs Mason Jones – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-06
  • Time: 8:15 PM UTC
  • Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

Bolaji Oki faces Mason Jones in a UFC lightweight bout at UFC Paris. Both fighters weigh 155 lbs and share orthodox stance, with very similar height (5'10") and reach (Oki 73", Jones 74"). Oki holds a 10-2 record, while Jones has 16-2 (1 NC). Oki is known for higher strike output and better striking accuracy and defense, while Jones has a slightly better ability to avoid damage but lands fewer strikes per minute.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Oki lands 7.05 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy and defends 62% of strikes, absorbing 4.76. Jones lands 5.56 strikes per minute at 41% accuracy, defends only 48%, and absorbs 4.46 significant strikes per minute. Oki's recent form includes consecutive wins, while Jones also has a strong record but recent fights show some mixed results.
  • No previous head-to-head meetings between Bolaji Oki and Mason Jones exist.
  • No reported injuries affecting either fighter leading up to the bout.
  • Fight will take place at Accor Arena in Paris, France, under UFC rules. Both fighters will be competing at their natural weight class with no external known performance impacts.
  • Both fighters are experienced and motivated to solidify their standings in the lightweight division. Oki aims to continue building momentum after recent wins. Jones seeks to assert dominance and maintain his strong win ratio.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Bolaji Oki: +114, Mason Jones: -135 Mason Jones ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Bolaji Oki +3.5: -180, Mason Jones -3.5: +130 Mason Jones -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: -175, Under 2.5 rounds: +135 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Mason Jones -9%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 29%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 29% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Bolaji Oki is favored to win based on superior striking volume, accuracy, and ability to defend incoming strikes. Mason Jones poses a credible threat but lower striking output and defensive metrics suggest Oki has the edge.

Predicted Score: Mason Jones win by decision


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Rhys McKee vs. Axel Sola Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Rhys McKee vs Axel Sola – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-06
  • Time: 7:45 PM UTC
  • Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

Welterweight UFC bout between Irish veteran Rhys McKee and French newcomer Axel Sola happening at UFC Fight Night 258 in Paris. McKee aims to re-establish himself in the UFC after a challenging record, while Sola makes his UFC debut undefeated, bringing strong momentum.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Rhys McKee has a professional MMA record of 14-6-1 with a UFC record of 1-4, averaging 5.16 significant strikes per minute but absorbs high striking volume (7.92 per minute) and has modest takedown defense (41%). Axel Sola is undefeated at 10-0-1, motivated and stepping into the UFC for the first time, with a strong winning momentum from previous promotions.
  • No previous fights between McKee and Sola; this is their first encounter.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter prior to the bout.
  • The fight takes place in Paris, giving Axel Sola home advantage with crowd support, which could influence energy and motivation. McKee embraces the 'villain' role, possibly channeling this to elevate performance.
  • Sola is highly motivated to maintain his perfect record and impress in his UFC debut on home soil. McKee is eager to rebound and prove himself after a tough UFC run, with significant preparation despite opponent changes.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Axel Sola: -135, Rhys McKee: 114 Axel Sola ★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread Axel Sola: -3.5 130, Rhys McKee: 3.5 -180 Axel Sola to win by more than 3.5 points (dominant finish likely) ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over: 2.5 -166, Under: 2.5 130 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Rhys McKee -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 27%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Axel Sola is favored to win due to his undefeated record, UFC debut momentum, and home crowd advantage, with McKee providing a strong challenge as an experienced UFC veteran.

Predicted Score: Axel Sola wins by TKO or decision within 3 rounds, 3-0 rounds in scoring terms


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Patricio Pitbull vs. Losene Keita Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Patricio Pitbull vs Losene Keita – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-06
  • Time: 7:15 PM UTC
  • Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

Patricio 'Pitbull' Freire, a seasoned MMA veteran at 38 years old with a strong wrestling and control game, faces European prospect Losene Keita, age 27, known for his explosive striking and finishing ability. The bout is a featherweight clash at UFC Paris, notable for contrasting styles and career trajectories, with Keita making his UFC debut and positioned as a strong favorite.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Losene Keita has momentum as a rising European prospect with a high finishing rate (62.5% by KO/TKO), relying on speed and striking. Patricio Pitbull brings decades of top-level experience, with strengths in takedown control and wrestling, evident in prior UFC performances.
  • This is their first professional meeting; no direct prior head-to-head data is available.
  • No recent or reported injuries for either fighter have been disclosed leading up to this bout.
  • The fight is in Paris, Europe, potentially favoring Losene Keita geographically and crowd-wise. Patricio, a veteran, may be facing age-related physical decline but brings experience. Keita’s UFC debut status adds motivation to prove himself at a major event.
  • Keita aims to establish himself on the UFC stage with a high-profile win early in his career, likely increasing his motivation and confidence. Pitbull seeks to maintain relevance and capitalize on experience despite physical aging, motivated to prove he can still compete at the highest level.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Losene Keita: -225, Patricio Pitbull: 185 Losene Keita ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Losene Keita: -3.5 100, Patricio Pitbull: 3.5 -135 Losene Keita to win by more than 3.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over: 2.5 -188, Under: 2.5 145 Over 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Losene Keita -2%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 -8%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Losene Keita at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Losene Keita is predicted to win based on youth, momentum, and striking advantage, with high confidence in a knockout or TKO finish if he maintains distance and pace. Patricio Pitbull’s best chance lies in securing early takedowns and controlling the fight’s pace to neutralize striking threats.

Predicted Score: Losene Keita wins by TKO in round 3


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William Gomis vs. Robert Ruchala Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: William Gomis vs Robert Ruchala – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-06
  • Time: 6:45 PM UTC
  • Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

This featherweight bout features William Gomis (14-3) facing Robert Ruchala (11-1) on the prelims of UFC Fight Night Paris. Gomis, nicknamed 'Jaguar,' is the betting favorite and the more experienced UFC competitor. Ruchala is a promising prospect with a strong record and an aggressive style. The fight is expected to showcase technical striking and grappling exchanges, being a key match on a stacked card headlined by high-level middleweight contenders.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Gomis has demonstrated solid all-around skills with a 14-3 record, showing capability in both striking and ground game. Ruchala boasts an 11-1 record with similar versatility but slightly less experience in high-profile UFC fights. Recent performances indicate Gomis controls pace better while Ruchala presses aggressively seeking finishes.
  • No previous fights between William Gomis and Robert Ruchala have occurred, leaving no direct matchup data.
  • No reports of injuries for either fighter approaching this matchup, suggesting both are at full strength.
  • The fight takes place at Accor Arena in Paris, close to Gomis' home country, possibly giving him a minor crowd support advantage. Ruchala may face the challenge of fighting away from his home base but also has nothing to lose as the underdog.
  • Gomis looks motivated to cement his position within featherweight ranks by leveraging his UFC experience. Ruchala, as a rising prospect making one of his first UFC appearances, is highly motivated to upset the favorite and announce himself on the big stage.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline William Gomis: -258, Robert Ruchala: 210 William Gomis ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread William Gomis: -3.5 (-105), Robert Ruchala: +3.5 (-125) William Gomis to cover -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: -270, Under 2.5 rounds: 200 Over 2.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline William Gomis -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 -11%

🔥 Best Value Pick: William Gomis at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

William Gomis is favored to win, leveraging his experience and balanced skill set. The fight will likely be a competitive contest with Gomis controlling the fight tempo and edging out Ruchala by decision or late finish.

Predicted Score: William Gomis wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds


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Oumar Sy vs. Brendson Ribeiro Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Oumar Sy vs Brendson Ribeiro – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-06
  • Time: 6:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

The highly anticipated UFC Light Heavyweight bout between Oumar Sy and Brendson Ribeiro will take place at UFC Paris. Sy holds a strong 11-1 record and stands 6'4" with an 83" reach, while Ribeiro, known as "The Gorilla," has a 17-8 record, stands 6'3" with an 81" reach. Both fighters use an orthodox stance. The fight is scheduled for 3 rounds and expected to feature contrasting styles emphasizing significant strike accuracy and defense.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Oumar Sy demonstrates superior striking efficiency, connecting on 50% of his 3.68 significant strike attempts per minute and absorbing only 1.81 per minute, while defending 70% of strikes. Brendson Ribeiro connects on 42% of his 3.26 strike attempts, absorbs 4.04 strikes per minute, and defends 52% of strikes. Sy's defensive metrics and striking accuracy give him a clear edge in overall performance metrics.
  • No records indicate a previous meeting between Sy and Ribeiro, making this the first head-to-head clash between these fighters.
  • No current injury reports or health concerns have been reported for either fighter ahead of this matchup.
  • The fight takes place in Paris, France, Oumar Sy's home country, potentially giving him home crowd advantage and reduced travel fatigue. The event being a UFC Fight Night card could motivate Sy to perform strongly on home soil.
  • Oumar Sy, fighting at home, looks to continue his near-flawless record and climb higher in the Light Heavyweight division. Brendson Ribeiro seeks to upset the local favorite with his experience of 25 professional fights, showing resilience and trying to leverage underdog status.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Oumar Sy: -455, Brendson Ribeiro: 350 Oumar Sy ★★★★☆ 85%
Spread Oumar Sy -3.5: -245, Brendson Ribeiro +3.5: 175 Oumar Sy -3.5 ★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under Over 1.5 rounds: -140, Under 1.5 rounds: 110 Over 1.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Oumar Sy -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 1.5 11%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Oumar Sy is favored to win by decision or late stoppage due to his superior strike accuracy, defense, and home advantage. Ribeiro's high strike absorption rate makes him vulnerable to Sy's precise striking output.

Predicted Score: Oumar Sy wins by unanimous decision after three rounds


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Marcin Tybura vs. Ante Delija Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Marcin Tybura vs Ante Delija – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-06
  • Time: 6:15 PM UTC
  • Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

The heavyweight UFC bout between Marcin Tybura and Ante Delija is a high-stakes rematch taking place in Paris. Tybura aims to solidify his status as a top-ten heavyweight gatekeeper while Delija seeks to establish a stronger UFC presence after a prolonged absence. Both fighters have extensive MMA experience with records of 27-9 and 25-6 respectively, making this a closely contested matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Marcin Tybura has shown consistent performances as a durable and technically sound heavyweight with a nearly balanced win-loss record. Ante Delija, similarly, has a robust 25-6 record, coming into the fight with momentum and UFC debut expectations, which could favor his aggressiveness and motivation.
  • This fight is a rare rematch that is roughly a decade in the making. Previous encounters and outcomes are not explicitly detailed, but the long gap suggests both fighters have evolved significantly since their last meeting, making direct historical comparison limited.
  • No public reports or updates indicate injuries for either fighter leading into this bout, suggesting both are likely competing at full health.
  • The match taking place in Paris may influence crowd support and atmosphere, though neither fighter is native to France. Both must manage travel and acclimatization equally. Market odds show very tight spreads, indicating balanced expectations from bookmakers.
  • Delija is motivated to make a strong UFC comeback and establish a foothold in the heavyweight division, potentially increasing his eagerness and risk-taking. Tybura looks to defend his top-ten standing, likely fighting with experience-driven caution and strategic discipline.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Ante Delija: -112, Marcin Tybura: -108 Ante Delija ★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread Ante Delija: -205 (3.5), Marcin Tybura: 150 (-3.5) Ante Delija +3.5 ★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under Over: 105 (2.5 rounds), Under: -135 (2.5 rounds) Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Ante Delija -3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 -4%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Ante Delija at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the close odds and similar skill levels, Ante Delija holds a slight edge due to his UFC debut motivation and slightly favored moneyline odds. The fight may go the distance, but Delija's aggression could secure a late-round finish or decision.

Predicted Score: Ante Delija win by decision or late-round finish


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Sam Patterson vs. Trey Waters Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Sam Patterson vs Trey Waters – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-06
  • Time: 5:45 PM UTC
  • Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

An exciting UFC welterweight bout between Sam Patterson (13-2-1) and Trey Waters (9-1) at UFC Paris. Both orthodox fighters are well matched in weight at 170 lbs with Patterson standing 6'3" and Waters 6'5". Patterson has a solid striking accuracy at 41% with 3.17 significant strikes landed per minute, while Waters is more aggressive with 6.43 strikes per minute at 44% accuracy. Patterson's strike defense is 48%, while Waters defends 56%. The fight is anticipated to be competitive with both fighters possessing different strengths in striking volume and defense.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Sam Patterson has a strong recent record and notable finishing ability, coming off a first-round KO win in March 2025. Trey Waters also has an impressive record with only one loss, including a unanimous decision win over Billy Goff in May 2024. Patterson's ability to absorb fewer strikes per minute (3.6 vs. Waters' 5.61) could be a key advantage.
  • No previous head-to-head encounters between Sam Patterson and Trey Waters have been recorded.
  • No current injury reports or issues affecting either fighter have been noted in the lead-up to the match.
  • The match takes place at the Accor Arena in Paris, France, as part of a stacked UFC Fight Night event that includes multiple rising prospects and seasoned veterans, creating an energetic atmosphere favorable for a high-tempo fight.
  • Both fighters aim to advance their UFC careers strongly; Patterson looks to extend a winning streak while Waters remains undefeated except for one loss, motivated to maintain momentum and secure a higher standing in the welterweight division.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Sam Patterson: -185, Trey Waters: 154 Sam Patterson to win ★★★★☆ 70%
Spread Sam Patterson: -3.5 @ -120, Trey Waters: +3.5 @ -110 Sam Patterson to cover the -3.5 spread ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 1.5 rounds: -188, Under 1.5 rounds: 145 Over 1.5 rounds (fight to last beyond first or early second round) ★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Sam Patterson -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 1.5 7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sam Patterson edges a competitive fight, leveraging better strike defense and resilience to win by decision or late finish with a slightly higher probability due to his finishing capability and defensive stats.

Predicted Score: Decision win for Sam Patterson after completing 3 rounds


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Brad Tavares vs. Robert Bryczek Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Brad Tavares vs Robert Bryczek – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-06
  • Time: 5:15 PM UTC
  • Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

The UFC middleweight clash at UFC Paris features veteran Brad Tavares (21-11) against rising contender Robert Bryczek (17-6). Both orthodox fighters weigh 185 lbs, with Tavares slightly taller at 6'1" and Bryczek having a marginally longer reach of 75". Tavares is known for his volume striking and durability, landing 3.42 significant strikes per minute at 43% accuracy and defending well, allowing only 3.28 significant strikes per minute. Bryczek throws fewer strikes (2.13 per minute) with lower accuracy (24%) but defends even better, allowing 4.47 strikes and blocking 60% of incoming strikes. The bout promises a contrast of Tavares's experience and persistent striking against Bryczek's toughness and countering approach.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Brad Tavares has faced consistently high-level competition, showing resilience and versatility with 7 KOs, 2 submissions, and 15 decision wins. Robert Bryczek is a powerful striker with a KO-heavy record (10 KOs), less experienced but dangerous due to his finishing ability.
  • No recorded previous fights between Brad Tavares and Robert Bryczek, making this their first encounter.
  • No reported injuries or fitness issues for either fighter leading up to the fight.
  • The fight takes place in Paris, which could have an impact on mental readiness due to travel for both fighters, though no specific advantage is noted. Both fighters are motivated, with Tavares emphasizing determination for a win ahead of the event.
  • Brad Tavares aims to solidify his position in the middleweight division by outlasting younger competition, while Bryczek is motivated to prove himself on a major stage and potentially accelerate his UFC career.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Brad Tavares: -225, Robert Bryczek: 185 Brad Tavares to win ★★★☆☆ 66%
Spread Brad Tavares -3.5: 110, Robert Bryczek +3.5: -150 Brad Tavares to win by more than 3.5 points (rounds) ★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under Over 2.5: -215, Under 2.5: 165 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Brad Tavares -4%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 46%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 46% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Brad Tavares is favored due to his experience, higher accuracy, and better defensive metrics. He is expected to win by a decision after a tactical and high-volume striking battle should Bryczek's knockout power not quickly change the tide.

Predicted Score: Brad Tavares wins via unanimous decision after 3 rounds


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Andreas Gustafsson Berg vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Andreas Gustafsson Berg vs Rinat Fakhretdinov – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-06
  • Time: 4:45 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC Fight Night (venue not explicitly stated)

Game Overview

The MMA match features Andreas Gustafsson Berg (12-2) facing Rinat Fakhretdinov (23-1-1) at welterweight. Gustafsson, nicknamed 'Bane,' is a technically precise striker with high striking accuracy (76%) and exceptional takedown defense (100%). Fakhretdinov, known as 'Gladiator,' has a deeper fight record and well-rounded skills but lower striking accuracy (52%) and takedown accuracy (34%). Both fighters use an orthodox stance and weigh 170 lbs.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Gustafsson's last fights show strong decision wins with disciplined striking and grappling control. Fakhretdinov has a higher fight volume and knockout power but a slightly more defensive striking style. Gustafsson lands more strikes per minute (5.83 vs. 4.78) and absorbs fewer strikes (2.79 vs 3.58) indicating superior striking efficiency and defense.
  • September 6, 2025, fight is their first official meeting, no past direct matchups found.
  • No reported injuries available for either fighter leading into the bout.
  • Fight held at UFC; Gustafsson fights out of Sweden with home support possibly favoring him slightly. Both trainers are highly reputed with Gustafsson coached by Jorgen Hamberg. No unusual external conditions reported.
  • Gustafsson could capitalize on strong recent form and defense to extend his record, while Fakhretdinov, with a stellar record, is motivated to affirm dominance and continue his near-flawless career.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Andreas Gustafsson Berg: -120, Rinat Fakhretdinov: 100 Andreas Gustafsson Berg ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Andreas Gustafsson Berg: -3.5 150, Rinat Fakhretdinov: +3.5 -205 Rinat Fakhretdinov +3.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: -195, Under 2.5 rounds: 150 Over 2.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Andreas Gustafsson Berg -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 -2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Andreas Gustafsson Berg at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Gustafsson is favored to win by decision due to superior striking accuracy, high takedown defense, and a disciplined, control-oriented style. Fakhretdinov may push aggressively but must overcome Gustafsson's defensive metrics and fight IQ.

Predicted Score: Decision victory for Andreas Gustafsson Berg (3 rounds)


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