Match Analysis: Sebastien Di Franco vs Mark Ewen – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-26
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Zenith Nantes Métropole, Nantes, France

Game Overview

Sebastien Di Franco faces Mark Ewen in a PFL MMA lightweight bout at the Zenith Nantes Métropole. Di Franco is a 31-year-old fighter with a record of 10 wins and 4 losses, known for strong decision victories and a balanced mix of KO/TKO and submissions. Mark Ewen has a 6-2 undefeated streak with more KO/TKO finishes and no decision wins, indicating a more aggressive finish-oriented style. Both fighters have competitive striking and grappling skills, with Ewen slightly taller and having longer reach. This fight is crucial for their standings in PFL Europe 3.

Key Factors to Consider

• Di Franco holds a 10-4 record with 5 decision wins suggesting endurance and technical skill, while Ewen is 6-2 with 4 KO/TKO wins and no decision wins, showing a preference for early finishes. Di Franco is currently on a three-fight winning streak, showing good form. Ewen’s KO power remains a significant threat but he has fewer fights overall.
• No documented prior head-to-head matches directly between Di Franco and Ewen were found, however Di Franco has a solid balanced record with a capability to go the distance versus Ewen’s finishing power and lack of decision wins indicating he aims to end fights early.
• No current injury reports or fight cancellations affecting Sebastian Di Franco or Mark Ewen were identified for this match.
• The fight takes place in France, which may provide slight home advantage to Di Franco if crowd influence matters. The event is organized by PFL MMA, indicating a professional and high-stakes environment.
• Both fighters are motivated to advance in the PFL Europe 3 standings. Di Franco, on a winning streak and fighting on home soil, likely has strong motivation. Ewen, with a clean recent record and knockout power, is motivated to maintain undefeated status and continue his finishing reputation.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Mark Ewen: -310, Sebastien Di Franco: +240	Sebastien Di Franco	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Mark Ewen: -1.5, Sebastien Di Franco: +1.5	Sebastien Di Franco +1.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	over_2.5_rounds: -120, under_2.5_rounds: +100	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Mark Ewen -98%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Sebastien Di Franco has the edge due to his experience with longer fights and a proven winning streak, combined with the potential home advantage. Mark Ewen’s power makes an early finish a possibility but Di Franco’s technical style and endurance likely lead to a decision victory.

Predicted Score: Sebastien Di Franco wins by decision after 3 rounds

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Match Analysis: Dean Garnett vs Jan Cieplowski – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-26
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: PFL Europe 3 Playoffs (Venue TBA)

Game Overview

The MMA match between Dean Garnett and Jan Cieplowski is a bantamweight fight scheduled for the PFL Europe 3 playoffs on September 26, 2025. Garnett, a veteran with a 13-3-1 record and extensive experience in professional MMA, faces the undefeated Cieplowski (9-0), a rising talent with a strong winning streak. Garnett brings experience and a balanced finishing ability split among decisions, submissions, and KOs, while Cieplowski boasts a perfect unbeaten record and a good mix of finishing methods.

Key Factors to Consider

• Dean Garnett has a professional record of 13 wins, 3 losses, and 1 draw, with a finishing distribution of approximately 3 KOs, 5 submissions, and 5 decisions. Jan Cieplowski holds an undefeated 9-0 record, with 44.4% wins by decision, 22.2% by submission, and 33.3% by KO. Garnett’s MMA experience is a significant advantage, though Cieplowski is on an impressive winning streak entering the matchup.
• No prior fight has been recorded between Dean Garnett and Jan Cieplowski, making this bout their first-ever head-to-head encounter.
• No known injuries have been reported for either fighter leading into this match.
• The fight takes place during the PFL Europe 3 playoffs, potentially adding pressure and motivation for both fighters to secure a victory and advance. Garnett fights out of the UK while Cieplowski represents Poland, each coming from their respective camps with no reported disruptions.
• Dean Garnett, at age 37, is likely motivated to leverage his experience and make a strong playoff push. Jan Cieplowski seeks to maintain his undefeated streak and capitalize on his momentum in professional MMA. Both fighters have strong reasons to perform at their peak.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Dean Garnett: -150, Jan Cieplowski: +120, Draw: +2500	Dean Garnett	★★★★☆ 73%
Spread	Dean Garnett -1.5: -110, Jan Cieplowski +1.5: -110	Dean Garnett -1.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -105, Under 2.5 rounds: -115	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Dean Garnett is predicted to win with a 73% confidence, leveraging his extensive professional experience over the less seasoned but undefeated Cieplowski, who holds a 27% chance to win. The victory could come by decision (36%), submission (32%), or KO (32%) for Garnett, highlighting his versatile finishing capabilities. The fight is expected to be competitive given both fighters’ skill sets and styles.

Predicted Score: Dean Garnett wins by decision or submission in 2 to 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Darragh Kelly vs Bakhtiyar Abdulaev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-26
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: PFL Event Venue (Exact venue not specified)

Game Overview

This lightweight bout in the 2025 PFL season features Darragh Kelly, an undefeated Irish fighter known as "The Moville Mauler," against Bakhtiyar Abdulaev. Kelly holds an 8-0 career record and is currently 1-0 in PFL, demonstrating strong submission and decision wins recently. Abdulaev's detailed fight record is not available in the provided data, but betting odds strongly favor Kelly.

Key Factors to Consider

• Darragh Kelly has displayed consistent dominance with multiple submission finishes and decisions in high-profile promotions like Bellator and PFL, maintaining an undefeated record. His recent fights show strong grappling and conditioning under SB Ireland team. Abdulaev's performance data is limited, making Kelly's known strengths a substantial advantage.
• No direct head-to-head records between Darragh Kelly and Bakhtiyar Abdulaev are documented in the provided data.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the bout.
• The fight is part of the PFL 2025 season where Kelly is aiming to maintain his unbeaten streak. Kelly's motivation is high after submitting Mike Hamel in the semifinals earlier this year. Abdulaev's external motivation and background information are not detailed in the current data.
• Kelly appears strongly motivated and confident, coming off a submission win in the PFL semifinals. Abdulaev's motivation level is unclear due to limited available information.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Darragh Kelly: -650, Bakhtiyar Abdulaev: 440	Darragh Kelly to win	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Darragh Kelly: -1.5, Bakhtiyar Abdulaev: +1.5	Darragh Kelly by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: Even, Under 2.5 rounds: Even	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Darragh Kelly -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Darragh Kelly at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Darragh Kelly is predicted to win by submission or decision given his undefeated record, grappling proficiency, and superior fight experience in major promotions. Abdulaev is an underdog despite the odds, but limited data on him reduces confidence in his chances.

Predicted Score: Darragh Kelly wins by submission in round 3

Match Analysis: Maria Guedez Jr vs Kiya O'Sullivan – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-26
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Zénith Nantes Métropole, Nantes, France

Game Overview

The MMA match between Maria Guedez Jr and Kiya O'Sullivan is scheduled for September 26, 2025, at the Zénith Nantes Métropole arena in Nantes, France. Both fighters are debuting their professional careers in the Women's Strawweight (115 lbs) division under PFL Europe 3. The contest format is 3 rounds of 5 minutes each. Kiya O'Sullivan is favored by bookmakers with moneyline odds of -200 compared to Maria Guedez Jr's +160.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both Maria Guedez Jr and Kiya O'Sullivan hold official records of 0-0-0, indicating this will be their professional MMA debut. Their youth and equal weight category suggest comparable physical preparation, although Kiya is slightly younger (22 vs 26) and 1 inch shorter, which may influence fighting style.
• There are no previous fights between Maria Guedez Jr and Kiya O'Sullivan, so no direct head-to-head data is available to analyze.
• No available data indicates recent or ongoing injuries for either fighter.
• The fight is set in Nantes, France, neutral ground for both Venezuela's Guedez Jr and Ireland's O'Sullivan. No known external factors such as travel issues or extreme weather conditions are reported.
• With both fighters making professional debuts in the prominent PFL Europe league, motivation is expected to be high on both sides. The opportunity to establish a strong career start in a high-profile organization likely adds competitive drive.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Kiya O'Sullivan: -200, Maria Guedez Jr: 160	Kiya O'Sullivan win	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Kiya O'Sullivan -1.5 rounds: -150, Maria Guedez Jr +1.5 rounds: +130	Kiya O'Sullivan -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	over 2.5 rounds: -110, under 2.5 rounds: -110	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Kiya O'Sullivan -13%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Kiya O'Sullivan at -13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Kiya O'Sullivan is favored to win the bout given bookmaker odds and typical expectations for debut fighter performances. However, the lack of professional fight history from both sides introduces uncertainty. The predicted outcome is a victory for Kiya O'Sullivan by decision, considering her slightly lower odds and presumed readiness.

Predicted Score: Kiya O'Sullivan win via unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Claudio Pacella vs Aleksandr Chizov – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-26
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: PFL Europe Week 3 Venue (Specific venue not available)

Game Overview

Lightweight semifinal match between Claudio Pacella (6-2) fighting out of Dublin, Ireland, and Aleksandr Chizov (12-1) competing in the PFL 2025 season. Both fighters have strong records in the lightweight division, with Chizov demonstrating dominance with a higher winning percentage and finishing ability.

Key Factors to Consider

• Pacella trains with SBG Ireland, known for producing well-rounded fighters. Chizov has shown consistency with a 12-1 record and multiple early finishes in the PFL, indicating strong performance momentum.
• No direct previous matchups found between Pacella and Chizov, making this their first encounter. Historical matchup data unavailable.
• No publicly available information on current injuries for either fighter ahead of the match.
• Event is part of PFL Europe Week 3, adding importance as a semifinal. Fighters may be motivated by championship progression and potential PFL accolades. Live odds indicate market confidence favoring Chizov.
• Chizov enters as a top contender with a nearly perfect record, likely seeking to maintain momentum. Pacella, with fewer fights at this level, has a strong desire to prove himself and advance in the tournament.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Aleksandr Chizov: -164, Claudio Pacella: 134	Aleksandr Chizov	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Aleksandr Chizov: -1.5 rounds -110, Claudio Pacella: +1.5 rounds -110	Aleksandr Chizov -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -120, Under 2.5 rounds: 100	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Aleksandr Chizov -2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Aleksandr Chizov at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Aleksandr Chizov is favored to win due to his superior record, finishing capability, and current betting market confidence. Expect a competitive bout with Chizov likely winning by decision or early finish.

Predicted Score: Aleksandr Chizov wins by decision or stoppage within 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Vincent del Guerra vs Sofiane Aïssaoui – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-26
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Zenith Nantes Metropole, Nantes, France

Game Overview

This middleweight MMA fight between Vincent del Guerra and Sofiane Aïssaoui at the PFL Europe 3 event is set to take place at the Zenith Nantes Metropole. Both fighters are well-experienced with contrasting records and fighting styles, making this a competitive matchup in the 185 lbs weight class.

Key Factors to Consider

• Vincent del Guerra enters the fight with a very strong record of 32 wins, 22 losses, and 1 draw, exhibiting diverse methods of victory including 4 KOs, 4 submissions, and 2 decision wins. Sofiane Aïssaoui has a record of 11 wins and 6 losses with a higher submission count (6 submissions) and fewer total fights, suggesting less experience but significant skill in grappling.
• There is no record of a prior head-to-head bout between Vincent del Guerra and Sofiane Aïssaoui, making this matchup unpredictable based on direct encounters.
• No recent injury reports have been noted for either fighter ahead of the fight, suggesting both are in good physical condition for the bout.
• The fight is part of a major PFL Europe event, streamed live on DAZN in France, the UK, and Ireland, supporting a high-stakes competitive environment. The venue in Nantes offers a localized advantage for Vincent del Guerra, who is from France, potentially boosting his motivation and fan support.
• Vincent del Guerra at age 35 and competing in his home country likely has a strong drive to maintain his high-level reputation. Sofiane Aïssaoui, at 34, also carries the motivation of furthering his career in the PFL Europe circuit, though he may be slightly the underdog given the odds and experience gap.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Vincent del Guerra: -390, Sofiane Aïssaoui: 310	Vincent del Guerra	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Vincent del Guerra: -1.5 rounds favored, Sofiane Aïssaoui: +1.5 rounds underdog	Vincent del Guerra to win by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: +150, Under 2.5 rounds: -190	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Vincent del Guerra -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Vincent del Guerra at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Considering del Guerra’s superior experience, stronger winning record, and home advantage, he is favored to win this matchup, although Aïssaoui's grappling skills could present challenges leading to a competitive bout.

Predicted Score: Vincent del Guerra by unanimous decision or late stoppage in round 3

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Match Analysis: Mantas Kondratavicius vs Dani Barbir – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-24
• Time: 1:55 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Game Overview

The middleweight matchup between undefeated Dani Barbir (7-0 MMA) and Mantas Kondratavicius (7-1 MMA) is the main event of Dana White's Contender Series Season 9, Week 7. Both fighters are skilled strikers, with Barbir known for his submission skills and Kondratavicius for his striking variety and clinch work. The fight is scheduled for three 5-minute rounds. Kondratavicius is currently on a two-fight winning streak and looks to hand Barbir his first professional loss, which could significantly boost his career prospects.

Key Factors to Consider

• Barbir remains undefeated with a strong regional championship defense in Croatia, showing solid grappling via submissions. Kondratavicius has a solid recent form (4-1 last five fights) highlighted by a quick knockout in March 2025, demonstrating power striking and clinch effectiveness.
• No previous head-to-head fights between Dani Barbir and Mantas Kondratavicius have been recorded.
• Barbir withdrew from a previous fight in May 2025 due to injury, but no current injury concerns have been reported for either fighter ahead of the match.
• The fight takes place at UFC Apex, a neutral site. Both fighters motivated by the prospect of securing a UFC contract. Barbir's untested chin and cardio, along with Kondratavicius' lone loss experience, are notable external considerations impacting mental and physical readiness.
• Barbir is motivated to maintain his undefeated record and potentially earn a UFC contract, while Kondratavicius looks to build his resume and break Barbir's undefeated streak, increasing his own chances for UFC promotion.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Dani Barbir: -133, Mantas Kondratavicius: 113	Mantas Kondratavicius to win	★★★☆☆ 67%
Spread	Mantas Kondratavicius -1.5: Unavailable, Dani Barbir +1.5: Unavailable	Mantas Kondratavicius by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 1.5: 157, Under 1.5: -180	Under 1.5 rounds (fight likely to end in early rounds)	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Dani Barbir 19%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Dani Barbir at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mantas Kondratavicius is predicted to win by KO/TKO, leveraging his superior striking variety and clinch work to exploit Barbir's tendency to absorb damage.

Predicted Score: Mantas Kondratavicius wins by KO/TKO in Round 1 or early Round 2

Match Analysis: Brahyan Zurcher vs Murtazali Magomedov – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-24
• Time: 1:30 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, USA

Game Overview

Highly anticipated featherweight bout between undefeated fighters Brahyan Zurcher and Murtazali Magomedov at Dana White's Contender Series Season 9, Week 7. Both fighters are 9-0 MMA records, making this a clash of top prospects aiming to secure UFC contracts. Zurcher brings technical polish and a relentless work rate from PFL experience, while Magomedov offers superior finishing skills, particularly in submissions, and a notable physical height advantage.

Key Factors to Consider

• Brahyan Zurcher has demonstrated technical striking and grinding pressure with a 5-0 run in PFL and a second-round KO win in his last fight. Murtazali Magomedov has shown speed, aggression, and finishing ability, with recent wins by KO and submission defenses in his home region and Octagon League Featherweight Championship.
• No prior head-to-head meetings. Both enter undefeated, making this their first direct competition, which adds unpredictability.
• No reported injuries or health issues for either fighter ahead of the bout.
• Fighting at UFC Apex in Las Vegas gives a neutral venue. The contest is featured on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass with significant stakes, as both fighters vie for UFC roster spots.
• Strong motivation on both sides to maintain undefeated status and secure UFC contracts. Magomedov’s recent title defense provides confidence, while Zurcher aims to translate PFL success into UFC breakthrough.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Brahyan Zurcher: -140, Murtazali Magomedov: 120	Murtazali Magomedov	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 1.5: -185, Under 1.5: 161	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Brahyan Zurcher 28%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 83%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 83% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 51.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

While Zurcher’s technical ability and relentless pace could control the later stages, Magomedov’s reach advantage and submission threats make him the slight favorite. The fight may hinge on whether Magomedov can finish early or survive Zurcher’s pressure. Prediction favors Murtazali Magomedov to win, with a possibility of early submission or KO victory.

Predicted Score: Murtazali Magomedov wins by submission or KO in round 2

Match Analysis: Sofia Montenegro vs Jeisla Chaves – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-24
• Time: 1:05 AM UTC
• Location: Dana White's Contender Series

Game Overview

The MMA flyweight match on Dana White's Contender Series features Sofia Montenegro (6-1) from Argentina and Jeisla Santos Chaves (5-0) from Brazil. Montenegro is a more tested fighter with a somewhat diverse skill set including striking, decent wrestling, and ground and pound, but with defensive issues and a history of a knockout loss. Chaves is undefeated but against significantly weaker competition and with unproven grappling and defensive striking. This fight could be a breakout moment for either fighter seeking UFC contracts.

Key Factors to Consider

• Montenegro has faced opponents with winning records and has demonstrated ability to finish fights via KO/TKO, submission, and decision, albeit with some recklessness and a weak chin. Chaves remains undefeated but her five opponents had no MMA wins and she lacks documented ground skills, relying mainly on a Muay Thai striking base which includes technical but risky striking and poor head movement.
• There is no recorded previous encounter between Montenegro and Chaves.
• No injuries reported for either fighter prior to the match.
• The fight is on Dana White's Contender Series platform, increasing pressure as both fighters look to secure UFC contracts. Montenegro trains at the UFC Performance Institute, suggesting access to high-level facilities and coaching.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, but Montenegro may have an edge due to her experience testing herself against tougher competition and showing recent improvements in fight IQ.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jeisla Chaves: 163, Sofia Montenegro: -188	Sofia Montenegro to win	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -145, Under 2.5 rounds: 125	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Sofia Montenegro -13%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sofia Montenegro is predicted to win by KO/TKO, likely in the second round, owing to her broader skill set, better test of opponents, and more proven finishing capability despite her defensive vulnerabilities.

Predicted Score: Sofia Montenegro wins by KO/TKO in Round 2