Match Analysis: Saimon Oliveira vs Luan Lacerda – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-11
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Game Overview
This bantamweight matchup at UFC Rio features Luan Lacerda (12-3) versus Saimon Oliveira (18-6), both orthodox fighters around 135 lbs with similar reach. Lacerda is the odds favorite at -250, displaying a higher significant strike rate but also absorbing more strikes. Oliveira is a seasoned fighter with decent defense and a slight edge in reach.
Key Factors to Consider
- Lacerda lands 4.52 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy but absorbs 7.07 per minute with 47% defense. Oliveira lands 2.67 significant strikes per minute at 40% accuracy, absorbing 4.13 with 46% defense. Oliveiraβs experience (18-6) is broader but Lacerdaβs recent form and efficiency suggest aggressiveness.
- No recorded previous fights between Lacerda and Oliveira, so no direct matchup data available.
- No reported injuries impacting either fighter leading into this bout.
- Fight location in Rio de Janeiro favors both Brazilian fighters equally; no notable external factors impacting performance.
- Both fighters motivated to climb rankings in bantamweight; Lacerda as a younger prospect aiming to capitalize on momentum, Oliveira seeking to leverage experience for possible career resurgence.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Luan Lacerda: -250, Saimon Oliveira: +205 | Luan Lacerda | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | Luan Lacerda: -3.5 -180, Saimon Oliveira: +3.5 +130 | Luan Lacerda -3.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 1.5: -145, Under 1.5: +114 | Over 1.5 rounds | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Saimon Oliveira -2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 1.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Luan Lacerda to win via moneyline
Predicted Score: Luan Lacerda wins by unanimous decision or TKO in round 3