This light heavyweight MMA bout features undefeated debutant Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev (7-0) facing experienced but winless-in-UFC Raffael Cerqueira (11-3, 0-3 UFC). The fight is part of UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker, marking UFC's first event in Qatar. Yakhyaev is favored by bookmakers due to his undefeated record, discipline, cardio, and grappling superiority, while Cerqueira looks to redeem his UFC struggles.
Key Factors to Consider
Yakhyaev enters with a perfect 7-0 record, demonstrating finishing ability with early round KOs, submissions, and strong grappling. Cerqueira has more professional fights (11-3) but has struggled in UFC bouts (0-3), indicating difficulty adapting at elite level. Yakhyaev’s versatility strikes and grappling are seen as superior.
No prior matchups between Yakhyaev and Cerqueira exist, making this their first encounter.
No reported injuries or fitness issues for either fighter prior to the bout.
The fight takes place in Doha, Qatar, which is UFC’s debut event location, possibly favoring Yakhyaev’s conditioning and mental preparedness as he fights under expected peak shape and discipline.
Yakhyaev is motivated to secure a strong UFC debut and maintain undefeated status, boosting his career trajectory. Cerqueira is driven to overcome his UFC losing streak and prove he belongs at this level.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
home: -1350, away: 800
Yakhyaev win
★★★★☆ 85%
Spread
home: -7.5 -800, away: 7.5 450
Yakhyaev to win by more than 7.5 points (dominant finish)
★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under
over: 1.5 230, under: 1.5 -315
Under 1.5 rounds (early finish expected)
★★★★☆ 75%
Top EV Betting Odds
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev 737%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 1.5 -21%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev at 737% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 92.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev is predicted to win by early TKO or ground-and-pound dominance, likely in the first round, leveraging his superior cardio, discipline, and grappling to control and finish Cerqueira.
UFC Fight Night 265 features a flyweight bout between Russia's Tagir Ulanbekov (17-2 MMA record, 6-1 UFC) and Japan's Kyoji Horiguchi (34-5 MMA record, 7-1 UFC). This marks Horiguchi's long-awaited return to the UFC after nearly a decade away, competing primarily in Bellator and Rizin. Ulanbekov enters as a heavy favorite with four consecutive UFC victories, while Horiguchi returns as a former UFC flyweight title challenger and multiple-time world champion across different promotions. The stylistic matchup pits Ulanbekov's wrestling-centric approach against Horiguchi's striking proficiency and experience.
Key Factors to Consider
Tagir Ulanbekov has demonstrated consistent performance with a 6-1 UFC record and has won four consecutive fights, most recently defeating Azat Maksum via unanimous decision in June 2025. He averages 3.37 significant strikes per minute with 49% accuracy, absorbs 3.36 strikes per minute, and averages 2.94 takedowns every 15 minutes with 38% accuracy and 62% takedown defense. Kyoji Horiguchi brings an extensive professional resume with 34 victories including 20 knockouts/submissions, boasting former championships in Bellator, Rizin (two-time bantamweight champion, one-time flyweight champion), and status as a 2017 Rizin Bantamweight Grand Prix Champion. However, Horiguchi has not competed in the UFC since 2016 and will be making his return after nearly a decade competing at higher weight classes in other organizations. His striking output of 3.60 significant strikes per minute with 45% accuracy and striking defense of 62% remain competitive, but his takedown defense of only 55% presents vulnerability against Ulanbekov's wrestling approach.
This is a first-time matchup between the two fighters. No direct historical data exists, though stylistic analysis suggests Ulanbekov's wrestling advantage presents significant challenges for Horiguchi, whose primary strength lies in striking rather than grappling defense. Notably, of Horiguchi's five career losses, only one occurred at flyweight (to Demetrius Johnson for the UFC title at age 24), indicating his expertise at higher weight classes.
No current injuries reported for either fighter. Both athletes are cleared to compete.
Horiguchi's nine-year absence from the UFC represents a significant variable. While he has remained active in Bellator and Rizin, the UFC's updated competition level, rule variations, and the younger generation of fighters present adjustment challenges. Ulanbekov competes regularly in the UFC and demonstrates comfort with the current competitive landscape. The event takes place in Qatar, a neutral venue for both international competitors.
Ulanbekov seeks to extend his winning streak and solidify his position in the flyweight rankings. Horiguchi faces immense motivation in his UFC return, aiming to prove his legitimacy against current UFC competition and potentially earn a title shot given his championship pedigree. The narrative of an international legend's return provides significant psychological motivation.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Ulanbekov -192 / Horiguchi +160
Tagir Ulanbekov Win
★★★★☆ 72%
Spread
Ulanbekov -3.5 (120) / Horiguchi +3.5 (-160)
Ulanbekov -3.5
★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under
Over 2.5 (-298) / Under 2.5 (220)
Under 2.5 Rounds
★★★☆☆ 64%
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Tagir Ulanbekov 0%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 2.5 140%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 140% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 63.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tagir Ulanbekov is favored to win via submission or decision, leveraging his superior wrestling, takedown offense (2.94 per 15 minutes vs. 2.00), takedown accuracy (38% vs. 44%), takedown defense (62% vs. 55%), and submission attempt rate (1.6 per 15 minutes vs. 0.7 per 15 minutes). While Horiguchi possesses superior striking output (3.60 vs. 3.37 significant strikes per minute) and striking defense (62%), Ulanbekov's four-consecutive UFC victories and consistent grappling dominance over recent opponents provide a clear path to victory through control. Horiguchi's primary vulnerability—weak takedown defense at 55%—directly matches Ulanbekov's primary strength. However, Horiguchi's experience, championship pedigree, and striking capabilities mean this is not a guaranteed outcome, particularly if the fight remains standing.
Predicted Score: Tagir Ulanbekov defeats Kyoji Horiguchi by Submission (Round 2, 3:45) or Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28). Most probable outcome: Ulanbekov via grappling control and submission in Round 2.
Bekzat Almakhan and Aleksandre Topuria face off in a bantamweight bout at UFC Qatar. Both fighters are 5'7" tall and weigh 135 lbs, with similar reach. Almakhan holds a 12-2 record known for explosive but low-volume KO striking, while Topuria has a 6-1 record with a more technical approach, showing higher significant strikes per minute and grappling efficiency. The fight is expected to feature early aggressive exchanges from Almakhan with Topuria relying on range control and grappling discipline.
Key Factors to Consider
Almakhan has a record of 12-2, favoring quick knockouts with an average fight time of about 8 minutes; he lands fewer significant strikes per minute (0.68) compared to Topuria who lands 2.73 and maintains longer fights averaging 15 minutes. Topuria has superior takedown success (50%) and defense (85%) compared to Almakhan's lower grappling stats.
This is the first meeting between Bekzat Almakhan and Aleksandre Topuria, so no direct historical head-to-head data is available.
No reported injuries for either fighter affecting this bout.
The fight is held at ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar, a neutral site likely favoring neither fighter. Event timing and environment have no specific noted impact.
Almakhan needs an early knockout or brawl sequence to neutralize Topuria's technical edge. Topuria can rely on pace control and grappling to wear down Almakhan over rounds, leveraging his superior conditioning and fight IQ.
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Aleksandre Topuria -3%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 1.5 -3%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Aleksandre Topuria is favored to win by decision or late finish due to his striking volume, grappling dominance, and endurance advantages. Almakhan's best chance lies in an early knockout within the first 5 minutes before Topuria settles into a rhythm.
Predicted Score: Aleksandre Topuria wins by decision after 3 rounds
The middleweight bout between Ismail Naurdiev and Ryan Loder at UFC Qatar on November 22, 2025, features two fighters with contrasting styles and records. Naurdiev is a more experienced fighter with a 24-8-0 record and an orthodox stance, known for solid striking defense and balanced offense. Loder, standing taller at 6'2" with a southpaw stance and a record of 8-2-0, is a more aggressive striker landing more significant strikes per minute with higher accuracy but lower defensive percentages.
Key Factors to Consider
Naurdiev has a longer MMA career with more fights and experience inside the Octagon, averaging longer fight durations (15:00 minutes) and strong strike defense (64%). Loder is a newer but highly effective competitor with higher striking volume and accuracy (5.76 strikes/min at 71% accuracy), though he allows more significant strikes per minute (2.51) and has less strike defense (50%). Loder's striking rush could challenge Naurdiev's defense.
No prior head-to-head matchups exist between Ismail Naurdiev and Ryan Loder, making this their first encounter.
No publicly reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the bout.
The fight takes place at UFC Qatar, a neutral venue with conditions expected to be standard for both fighters. Loder is part of Team Alpha Male, leveraging strong team support and motivation as the Season 32 winner of The Ultimate Fighter. No other external issues reported.
Naurdiev aims to re-establish momentum following mixed recent results, while Loder seeks to capitalize on his rising trajectory and notable striking advantages. Both fighters bring high motivation for a career-defining win in a prime UFC event.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Ismail Naurdiev: -135, Ryan Loder: +114
Ismail Naurdiev to win
★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread
Ismail Naurdiev: -3.5 (110), Ryan Loder: +3.5 (-145)
Ismail Naurdiev to win by more than 3.5 points
★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under
Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -120
Over 2.5 rounds (fight goes past halfway point)
★★★☆☆ 65%
Top EV Betting Odds
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Ismail Naurdiev -0%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 2.5 15%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Naurdiev's experience, strong defensive striking, and composure over longer fights versus Loder's higher volume, aggressive striking and reach advantage, the bout is expected to be competitive but likely favors Naurdiev by decision or late finish. Loder's finishing power or pressure could sway an upset, but Naurdiev's consistency is predicted to prevail.
Predicted Score: Ismail Naurdiev wins by decision or late round finish, with fight lasting over 2.5 rounds
Nurullo Aliev, the undefeated Tajik Eagle with a perfect 10-0 record (2-0 in UFC), faces England/Ireland's Shaqueme 'Shem' Rock in his UFC debut. This lightweight bout features a significant contrast in experience levels, with Aliev representing the established UFC prospect and Rock making his long-awaited promotional debut after an impressive 12-1-1 record outside the octagon. The matchup showcases two distinct fighting styles, with Aliev known for a more measured, control-oriented approach, while Rock projects an aggressive finishing mentality.
Key Factors to Consider
Nurullo Aliev maintains an unblemished 10-0 professional record with notable wins over Joe Solecki, Josh Wick, and Rafael Alves. His UFC record stands at 2-0, establishing him as a legitimate prospect in the lightweight division. Shem Rock's 12-1-1 record demonstrates consistent success outside the UFC, with eight submissions among his victories and an elite-level grappling foundation. Rock's only loss and draw suggest occasional inconsistency, while Aliev's perfection indicates technical mastery and competitive discipline.
This is the first meeting between these fighters. No direct historical data exists. However, stylistically, Aliev's wrestling-heavy, control-based approach directly contrasts with Rock's aggressive submission finisher mentality. Rock has publicly criticized Aliev's 'boring' defensive style, suggesting he sees opportunities to exploit through aggressive striking and grappling exchanges rather than accepting positional control.
No injury information available in provided sources. Both fighters appear healthy for competition.
Rock's UFC debut adds psychological complexity—both motivation to prove himself and potential inexperience against elite competition. Aliev benefits from established UFC experience and familiarity with high-level opponents. The Qatar venue is neutral territory for both fighters. Rock's public trash-talk may indicate psychological confidence but could also suggest concern about stylistic matchups.
Shem Rock enters his UFC debut with significant motivation to make an immediate impact and validate his professional record against elite competition. Nurullo Aliev seeks to extend his undefeated streak and continue climbing the lightweight rankings. Rock's aggressive rhetoric ('take his chin off,' 'snipe him') indicates high psychological investment in this performance.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Aliev: -290 | Rock: +235
Nurullo Aliev
★★★★☆ 72%
Spread
Aliev -3.5 (-120) | Rock +3.5 (-110)
Aliev -3.5
★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under
Over 2.5 (-188) | Under 2.5 (145)
Under 2.5
★★★★☆ 71%
Top EV Betting Odds
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Nurullo Aliev 0%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2.5 72%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 72% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 49.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nurullo Aliev is favored to win this matchup, with the -290 moneyline reflecting his perfect record, UFC experience, and proven wrestling credentials. However, the 235 odds for Shem Rock suggest legitimate upset potential given his submission expertise and aggressive style. The stylistic matchup favors Aliev's control wrestling against Rock's submission attempts, but Rock's elite grappling background and finishing mentality present meaningful threats. Expect a competitive bout with Aliev winning via decision or control wrestling.
Predicted Score: Nurullo Aliev wins via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28). Expected fight duration: Full 3 rounds with dominant wrestling control from Aliev, limited finishing opportunities for Rock despite submission attempts.
This welterweight bout features Nicolas Dalby, an experienced Danish veteran with 23 professional wins, facing Saygid Izagakhmaev, a highly-touted Russian prospect making his UFC debut. Dalby brings 7 UFC fights and established name recognition, while Izagakhmaev arrives as an undefeated newcomer with an impressive 22-2 record from other promotions. The matchmaking appears designed to test Izagakhmaev's mettle against established UFC competition, with oddsmakers heavily favoring the debutant.
Key Factors to Consider
Nicolas Dalby (23-6-1, 2 NC; UFC 7-5-1, 1 NC) has experienced mixed results in the UFC, most recently suffering a stoppage loss to Randy Brown via KO in Round 2 at UFC Kansas City (April 2025). His notable wins include Muslim Salikhov, Gabriel Bonfim, and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Dalby has earned 2x Fight of the Night bonuses, indicating competitive, exciting performances. Saygid Izagakhmaev (22-2) enters with an impressive record featuring notable victories over James Nakashima, Shinya Aoki, and Nikolay Aleksakhin. His only losses come outside the UFC, suggesting he has faced elite competition and overcame adversity.
No previous meetings exist between these fighters. This represents Izagakhmaev's UFC debut, making direct statistical comparison difficult. However, Izagakhmaev's record against higher-level opposition (Nakashima, Aoki) suggests he has faced comparable or superior competition to Dalby's recent opponents.
No injury information is available from the provided search results. Both fighters appear to be healthy and scheduled to compete.
Izagakhmaev competes as a newcomer to the UFC, which typically involves adjustment challenges including cage familiarity, opponent scouting quality, and promotion-specific rule variations. However, his pedigree and previous high-level competition suggest he is well-prepared. Dalby fights in front of his loss, potentially creating additional motivation or psychological factors. The fight is scheduled as a preliminary bout on the UFC Qatar card headlined by Tsarukyan vs. Hooker.
Dalby seeks redemption after his recent knockout loss and fights to maintain his UFC roster spot. Izagakhmaev enters with perfect UFC ambitions intact and an opportunity to make an immediate statement against an established opponent. For Dalby, this represents a crucial fight to demonstrate he remains competitive; for Izagakhmaev, this is a platform to validate his elite prospect status and earn respect in the UFC's welterweight division.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Dalby +270 | Izagakhmaev -340
Saygid Izagakhmaev
★★★★☆ 75%
Spread
Dalby +3.5 (125) | Izagakhmaev -3.5 (-170)
Izagakhmaev -3.5
★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under
Over 2.5 (-145) | Under 2.5 (114)
Under 2.5 Rounds
★★★☆☆ 68%
Top EV Betting Odds
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Saygid Izagakhmaev -4%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 2.5 27%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Saygid Izagakhmaev is predicted to win this matchup via decision or submission. His undefeated record, impressive victories against elite competition (Aoki, Nakashima), and superior striking/grappling combination should prove too much for a declining Nicolas Dalby. While Dalby's experience provides value, his recent knockout loss and inconsistent UFC results position him as the vulnerable underdog. Izagakhmaev's technical superiority and youth advantage are decisive factors.
Predicted Score: Saygid Izagakhmaev wins via Submission (Round 2, 3:45) or Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
Location: Ali Bin Hamad al-Attiyah Arena, Al Rayyan, Qatar
Game Overview
Marek Bujło faces Denzel Freeman in a heavyweight bout at UFC Fight Night 265 in Doha, Qatar. Both fighters are making their UFC debuts, with Bujło entering with a perfect 6-0 record, all finishes, and Freeman at 6-1, coming off a loss in his last fight. The match is expected to be a clash of styles, with Bujło known for his striking and knockout power, while Freeman is a former LFA heavyweight champion with strong wrestling and grappling credentials.
Key Factors to Consider
Marek Bujło has finished all six of his professional fights, showcasing explosive striking and a high knockout rate. His opponents have been regional-level, but his finishing ability is notable. Denzel Freeman, while also finishing most of his wins, suffered a loss in his last bout, indicating vulnerability. Freeman's wrestling and grappling are considered superior, but his striking defense is less proven.
No previous encounters between the two fighters. This is a fresh matchup with no direct history.
No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the event.
The fight takes place in Doha, Qatar, marking the UFC's debut in the country. The environment may be unfamiliar for both fighters, but neither has a clear advantage in terms of travel or acclimatization.
Both fighters are highly motivated for their UFC debuts. Bujło aims to make a statement as an undefeated prospect, while Freeman seeks to rebound from his recent loss and establish himself in the UFC.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Denzel Freeman: -205, Marek Bujło: 170
Marek Bujło
★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread
Denzel Freeman: -5.5 -160, Marek Bujło: 5.5 120
Marek Bujło +5.5
★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under
Over: 1.5 120, Under: 1.5 -154
Over 1.5 rounds
★★★★☆ 70%
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Marek Bujło -98%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 1.5 -98%
⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.
Predicted Outcome
Marek Bujło is favored to win by knockout or decision due to his finishing ability and undefeated record. Denzel Freeman's wrestling could pose a challenge, but Bujło's striking and power are expected to prevail. The fight is likely to go the distance or end in a finish for Bujło.
Predicted Score: Marek Bujło wins by knockout or decision in the second or third round.
This is a featherweight bout between Finnish prospect Eemil Kurhela and Eugen Black-Dell at OKTAGON 80. Kurhela enters as the favored fighter based on his impressive finishing rate and recent record, while Black-Dell represents a competitive challenger. The match showcases contrasting fighting styles with Kurhela's demonstrated knockout power against Black-Dell's submission capabilities.
Key Factors to Consider
Eemil Kurhela is a Finnish MMA prospect with an impressive 7-3 professional record, featuring 6 finishes (5 in round 1), demonstrating exceptional striking power and fight-ending ability. His recent performance includes a loss to Marco Novak on December 29, 2024, representing his last outing. Eugen Black-Dell maintains a 9-8 professional record with a more mixed finishing profile, holding an edge in decision victories.
No previous head-to-head history exists between these fighters, making this their first professional matchup. Both fighters operate at similar competitive levels within the OKTAGON promotion, with comparable experience but different stylistic approaches.
No injury information available from current sources.
Kurhela competes under his home club 03 Fight Team, providing potential home-country familiarity advantage. Both fighters are ranked relatively close in the featherweight division (Kurhela ranked higher), indicating competitive parity in terms of promotion respect.
Kurhela appears motivated to bounce back from his December 2024 loss to Marco Novak, seeking to return to his finishing form. Black-Dell enters with momentum from his recent performance streak (W-W-W-L-W), looking to establish himself against a rising prospect.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Eemil Kurhela -155 | Eugen Black-Dell +115
Eemil Kurhela Victory
★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under
Based on finishing rates: Over 1.5 rounds favored
Fight concludes before round 3 (under 2.5 rounds)
★★★☆☆ 58%
Top EV Betting Odds
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Eemil Kurhela 0%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
🔥 Best Value Pick: Eemil Kurhela at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Eemil Kurhela is predicted to secure victory via finish (knockout or submission) in the second or third round. His superior finishing rate (5 round-1 finishes out of 7 wins) and current form suggest he will overcome Black-Dell's defensive wrestling. However, Black-Dell's submission threat and technical grappling cannot be dismissed.
Predicted Score: Eemil Kurhela def. Eugen Black-Dell via TKO (Round 2, 3:15) – The Finnish prospect's superior finishing ability and recent confidence overcome Black-Dell's grappling defense, resulting in a stoppage victory that reinforces Kurhela's knockout prowess.
This is the main event of OKTAGON 80, featuring a vacant lightweight championship bout between two top European fighters. Mateusz Legierski, the former first OKTAGON lightweight champion, is making a return to title contention after more than five years away from the belt. His opponent is Attila Korkmaz, a three-organization champion ranked #3 in the lightweight division, who is determined to capture the vacant OKTAGON lightweight title. This 5-round title fight represents a significant milestone for both competitors, with Legierski seeking to reclaim championship glory and Korkmaz aiming to establish himself as the new divisional king.
Key Factors to Consider
Mateusz Legierski (12-2 record) is ranked #2 in the OKTAGON lightweight rankings and #175 globally. He is known for his heavy hands and striking power. Attila Korkmaz (16-10 record) is ranked #3 in OKTAGON and #185 globally. With 16 wins, Korkmaz has demonstrated consistency across multiple organizations. Legierski's main strength is cited as his heavy hands, though Korkmaz has expressed concerns about Legierski's positioning and body mechanics. Korkmaz emphasizes his superior pace and conditioning advantage.
No previous direct matchup history between these fighters is documented in the available information. This appears to be their first encounter, making this a fresh competitive dynamic. Both fighters are at similar career stages competing for the same vacant title, suggesting relatively comparable skill levels that warrant a competitive matchup.
No injury reports or notable injury concerns for either fighter are mentioned in the available information preceding this bout.
The event is being held in Munich, Germany, which is Korkmaz's hometown region (he references OKTAGON coming to Berlin next year in his interview). Fighting at home can provide psychological advantages including crowd support and familiarity with the venue. The SAP Garden is hosting the event with doors opening at 5:00 PM and the event beginning at 6:00 PM local time.
Both fighters are highly motivated as they compete for the vacant OKTAGON lightweight championship, the most prestigious lightweight title in the organization. Legierski is motivated to reclaim championship status after a five-year absence from title contention. Korkmaz is motivated to prove that Legierski's era of dominance in the division is over and to establish himself as the new champion. Korkmaz has made aggressive statements about his intentions to finish the fight decisively.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Attila Korkmaz +170 / Mateusz Legierski -200
Mateusz Legierski wins
★★★☆☆ 62%
Top EV Betting Odds
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Mateusz Legierski -9%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
🔥 Best Value Pick: Mateusz Legierski at -9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Based on the available data, this matchup presents a competitive title fight with moderate confidence in either direction. Korkmaz possesses advantages in pace, conditioning (predicting Legierski tires by round two), and home-crowd support. However, Legierski's superior record (12-2 vs 16-10), higher ranking (#2 vs #3), and reputation for heavy hands provide significant counterbalance. The odds favor Legierski (-200), suggesting bookmakers view him as the slight favorite. Korkmaz's aggressive pre-fight statements and confidence suggest he is underpreparing Legierski's abilities. Given the competitive nature and Legierski's slight edge in credentials, Legierski is predicted to emerge victorious, though Korkmaz presents legitimate threats throughout.
Predicted Score: Mateusz Legierski by Decision (likely 29-28 or 30-27 across 3 rounds, with possibility of split decision given competitive nature). Alternative outcome: Attila Korkmaz by TKO Round 2-3 if his pace and aggression overcome Legierski's striking (probability: 35%). Legierski by Submission or Decision remains most likely (probability: 62%).
A featured lightweight bout at OKTAGON 80 featuring two fighters on hot winning streaks. Denis Frimpong, the #8 ranked Irish lightweight, faces off against Gökhan Aksu, the #7 ranked Turkish finisher. This is a title eliminator bout for Frimpong and represents a significant step up in competition for both fighters. The match consists of 3 rounds in the lightweight division (155 lbs).
Key Factors to Consider
Denis Frimpong (9-2 record) has built impressive momentum with a string of consecutive wins, showcasing well-rounded skills with 36% KO/TKO rate and 36% decision victories. Gökhan Aksu (12-6-1 record) is a dangerous finisher with 50% of his wins coming via KO/TKO and 22% via submission, indicating strong finishing ability. Frimpong's record suggests more technical consistency, while Aksu possesses higher knockout power.
No previous fight history between these competitors. Both fighters are on winning streaks entering this matchup, creating uncertainty in direct comparison. Height and reach differences may play a factor, with Frimpong standing 6'2" (188 cm) compared to Aksu's 5'8" (173 cm), giving Frimpong a significant reach advantage.
No injury information available in current reports.
The fight takes place at SAP Garden, described as Europe's most modern combat arena. Home advantage is somewhat neutral as this is a featured bout rather than a title bout. The Saturday evening timing in Munich represents a European-friendly schedule.
This is a title eliminator bout, providing significant motivation for Frimpong to advance toward championship contention. Both fighters are looking to maintain their current winning streaks. Aksu, ranked higher (#7 vs #8), may have slight confidence advantage in ranking positioning.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Denis Frimpong: -200, Gokhan Aksu: +150
Denis Frimpong to win
★★★☆☆ 68%
Top EV Betting Odds
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Denis Frimpong 0%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
🔥 Best Value Pick: Denis Frimpong at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Denis Frimpong is favored to win this matchup. His height and reach advantage, combined with more consistent technical record and title eliminator status, position him as the probable victor. However, Aksu's superior finishing rate and dangerous power pose a legitimate threat, particularly if he can close distance effectively.
Predicted Score: Frimpong via decision (29-28) or second-round TKO. Secondary prediction: Aksu via submission in round 2 (upset scenario). Most likely outcome: Frimpong wins by unanimous decision due to superior striking range and technical application, though Aksu's finishing attempts could create competitive rounds.
