Match Analysis: Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-27
• Time: 2:15 AM UTC
• Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia

Game Overview

This featherweight bout between Tom Nolan and Charlie Campbell at UFC Fight Night 260 features Nolan fighting at home in Australia with a slight edge as the favorite. Nolan is on a three-fight winning streak with a record of 9-1 and known for his rangy striking and diverse kicks. Campbell is stepping in on short notice, holds a 9-2 overall record with a 2-1 UFC mark, and possesses finishing abilities with a near-even split between KOs, submissions, and decisions. The fight is expected to be competitive with key factors including Nolan’s home advantage and Campbell’s momentum despite being the guest fighter.

Key Factors to Consider

• Tom Nolan is currently on a three-fight winning streak, recovering well from an early UFC debut loss. He fights with reach and technical striking, mixing body and leg kicks with knees. Charlie Campbell has solid finishing percentages but is at slight disadvantage bringing a short-notice fight and less UFC experience.
• No documented previous fight between Tom Nolan and Charlie Campbell.
• No current injury reports known for either fighter.
• Nolan fights in his home country Australia, which may influence judging and provide a moral advantage. Campbell is considered a guest fighter, possibly facing biased judging. Additionally, pressure might affect Nolan due to competing at home.
• Nolan aims to extend his winning streak and capitalize on the home advantage. Campbell looks motivated to prove himself stepping in on short notice and building UFC momentum.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Charlie Campbell: +124, Tom Nolan: -148	Tom Nolan	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Charlie Campbell: -125, Tom Nolan: -105	Tom Nolan -3.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over: +140, Under: -180	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Tom Nolan 1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 -7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Tom Nolan at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Tom Nolan is predicted to win by decision, leveraging his reach, home advantage, and consistency in performance. The fight likely will go the distance given both fighters' preference for decision wins and balanced finishing rates.

Predicted Score: Tom Nolan wins by unanimous decision (3-0 rounds)

Match Analysis: Navajo Stirling vs Rodolfo Bellato – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-27
• Time: 1:40 AM UTC
• Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia

Game Overview

Undefeated New Zealand prospect Navajo Stirling faces Brazilian KO artist Rodolfo Bellato in a prelims light heavyweight bout at UFC Fight Night 260. Stirling (27 years old) boasts a 7-0 professional record and excels in wrestling, Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and striking accuracy, training at City Kickboxing. Bellato brings experience and knockout power, presenting a notable step-up in competition for Stirling.

Key Factors to Consider

• Stirling's performance is marked by balanced skills—high striking volume (5+ significant strikes/min) at 56% accuracy, combined with strong grappling. Bellato is a powerful striker noted for KO ability but less detailed statistical data is available on his grappling or striking volume.
• No prior head-to-head matches between Stirling and Bellato, making this fight a first-time encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the match.
• The fight takes place in Perth, which may favor Stirling slightly due to timezone and crowd familiarity given his New Zealand origin proximity; Bellato travels from Brazil. Fight is on prelims card, potentially adding pressure to both fighters aiming to impress.
• Stirling aims to maintain his undefeated streak and continue climbing division ranks, motivated by his recent career momentum. Bellato seeks to capitalize on the opportunity to upset a rising star and revive his own trajectory.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Navajo Stirling: -245, Rodolfo Bellato: 200	Navajo Stirling	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Navajo Stirling -7.5: -115, Rodolfo Bellato +7.5: -115	Navajo Stirling to win by more than 7.5 strikes/points	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: -180, Under 1.5 rounds: 140	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Navajo Stirling -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Navajo Stirling is predicted to win by decision or late TKO due to his technical striking, grappling ability, and undefeated momentum, though Bellato's KO threat makes an upset possible in early rounds.

Predicted Score: Navajo Stirling wins by unanimous decision or TKO around round 3 or 4

Match Analysis: Cam Rowston vs Andre Petroski – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-28
• Time: 1:20 AM UTC
• Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia

Game Overview

The UFC middleweight matchup between Cam Rowston and Andre Petroski at UFC Perth pits a debuting striker with significant reach advantages against a more experienced grappler who relies on wrestling and ground control. Rowston, standing 6'3" with a 78-inch reach, seeks to utilize his striking and length to keep the fight standing, contrasting Petroski’s grappling base and UFC experience. The fight represents a classic striker versus grappler battle with Rowston aiming to prove himself and Petroski aiming to maintain momentum in the middleweight division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Cam Rowston enters on a high from a recent Contender Series TKO win and has a strong record of 12-3, demonstrating effective striking and submissions. Andre Petroski has UFC experience with a wrestling-oriented approach but has struggled slightly recently, including a loss by decision to Edmen Shahbazyan and some concerns about cardio. Petroski is favored due to experience and grappling advantage.
• This is their first meeting. The matchup is stylistically contrasting with no previous direct clashes between the fighters.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter have been disclosed pre-fight.
• The fight takes place in Perth, Australia, which gives Rowston a hometown advantage and potential crowd support. Petroski faces the challenge of fighting away from home but brings a higher level of UFC experience, possibly mentally offsetting location effects.
• Rowston is highly motivated to make a strong UFC debut and prove his place at the top level. Petroski is motivated to regain winning form and climb the middleweight ranks after a recent defeat, aiming to use his grappling to control the fight.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Andre Petroski: -170, Cam Rowston: 142	Andre Petroski	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Andre Petroski: -3.5 115, Cam Rowston: 3.5 -155	Andre Petroski -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over: 2.5 -130, Under: 2.5 100	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Andre Petroski -7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 10%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Andre Petroski to win via decision by controlling the fight on the ground. Rowston's striking and reach present challenges, but Petroski's wrestling and UFC experience provide an edge, especially if he can impose a grappling-heavy pace.

Predicted Score: Andre Petroski wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-27
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia

Game Overview

The UFC prelims Light heavyweight fight between Jonathan Micallef and Oban Elliott takes place at UFC Perth. Micallef enters as an underdog against Elliott, who is known for his technical striking and fight control. Both fighters bring distinct styles and approaches, with Micallef having worked with UFC legend Robert Whittaker to prepare, and Elliott recognized for his striking range and takedown mix.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jonathan Micallef has faced doubts from sportsbooks in recent fights but has improved training under Robert Whittaker. Oban Elliott has a 12-3 career record with strong striking, good distance management, and effective counters. Elliott’s prior performance showed some underwhelming moments but remains a crafty tactician.
• No direct head-to-head record is available, making this matchup a fresh technical puzzle for both fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the match.
• The fight is held in Perth, Australia, granting Micallef a slight home-crowd advantage. Betting markets currently favor Elliott despite this.
• Micallef is motivated to prove doubters wrong and capitalize on home advantage. Elliott seeks to maintain momentum after a mixed recent performance and demonstrate technical superiority.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jonathan Micallef: 100, Oban Elliott: -120	Oban Elliott	★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread	Jonathan Micallef +3.5: -215, Oban Elliott -3.5: 155	Jonathan Micallef +3.5	★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -245, Under 2.5 rounds: 185	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Oban Elliott -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 57%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 57% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Oban Elliott is favored to win due to his technical striking, fight IQ, and recent ring control, but Micallef’s improvement and home advantage introduce notable upset potential.

Predicted Score: Oban Elliott wins by decision, likely within three rounds

Match Analysis: Jamie Mullarkey vs Rolando Bedoya – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-27
• Time: 12:40 AM UTC
• Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia

Game Overview

This UFC prelim lightweight bout features Jamie Mullarkey (17-8) from Australia against Rolando Bedoya (14-4) from Peru. Mullarkey, a 31-year-old southpaw striker with a Muay Thai background and a jiu-jitsu brown belt, is known for relentless forward pressure and volume striking. Bedoya, younger at 28, has an effective reach and a balanced style with a professional record indicating solid performance. The fight is expected to be competitive with emphasis on striking and durability.

Key Factors to Consider

• Mullarkey has fought a higher volume of elite competition in UFC, showing tough durability and sharp counters but is coming off recent losses. Bedoya holds a strong record with fewer losses but less UFC experience. Both fighters have solid striking skills; Mullarkey's forward pressure contrasts with Bedoya's potentially more balanced approach.
• This is their first meeting, so no direct head-to-head data exists.
• No official injury reports for either fighter leading into this matchup are available, indicating both likely enter in full health.
• The fight takes place in Perth, Australia, potentially favoring Mullarkey who is Australian, offering home crowd support and reduced travel fatigue.
• Mullarkey seeks to rebound after recent losses and maintain UFC relevance, while Bedoya looks to establish himself on the big stage with a win over a local favorite.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jamie Mullarkey: -112, Rolando Bedoya: -108	Jamie Mullarkey	★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread	Jamie Mullarkey +3.5: -200, Rolando Bedoya -3.5: 145	Jamie Mullarkey +3.5	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -195, Under 2.5 rounds: 150	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jamie Mullarkey -2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -9%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jamie Mullarkey at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jamie Mullarkey edges Rolando Bedoya in a closely contested bout due to home advantage, experience, and volume striking style, with a predicted method of decision.

Predicted Score: Decision victory to Jamie Mullarkey after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-27
• Time: 12:15 AM UTC
• Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia

Game Overview

Colby Thicknesse and Josias Musasa face off in a Bantamweight prelim bout at UFC Perth. Both fighters are young and talented with similar records, and this match serves as an important opportunity for Thicknesse to secure his first UFC victory and for Musasa to continue his rise in the division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Josias Musasa enters with an 8-1 record, showing solid performances and finishing fights early, while Colby Thicknesse holds a 7-1 record but lost his UFC debut on short notice. Both fighters have athleticism and finishing ability, making this a high-intensity matchup.
• There is no prior head-to-head meeting between Thicknesse and Musasa. They both share the experience of finishing the same common opponent in the first round in their recent fights, hinting at similar finishing capabilities.
• No reported injuries currently affecting either fighter; both appear to be in good condition moving into this bout.
• The fight takes place in Perth, Australia, Colby Thicknesse's home country, offering him potential crowd support. Despite this, Musasa is favored by bookmakers. The fight is on prelims, which may bring added pressure for both as they seek to impress early in their UFC careers.
• Thicknesse is highly motivated to earn his first UFC win and show he belongs in the organization, acknowledging the stakes as both fighters are coming off losses. Musasa looks to solidify his status and capitalize on being the betting favorite.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Colby Thicknesse: +126, Josias Musasa: -150	Josias Musasa	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Colby Thicknesse: +1.5, Josias Musasa: -1.5	Josias Musasa by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5: +100, Under 2.5: -120	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Josias Musasa -7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 10%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Josias Musasa is favored to win due to his slightly higher profile in the UFC and betting market confidence. However, Colby Thicknesse's home advantage and motivation to prove himself suggest a competitive fight with a realistic chance for either fighter to secure a finish.

Predicted Score: Josias Musasa wins by decision or late finish in round 3

Match Analysis: Michelle Montague vs Luana Carolina – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-27
• Time: 11:50 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Fight Night 260, Perth, Western Australia

Game Overview

Michelle Montague faces Luana Carolina in a bantamweight contest at UFC Fight Night 260. Montague is undefeated (6-0), known for her wrestling and grappling pedigree, having transitioned from PFL and competing previously at featherweight. Carolina (11-4) is a striker with solid clinch skills and takedown defense. Both fighters present aggressive styles, but Montague is favored due to size, strength, and grappling superiority.

Key Factors to Consider

• Montague shows a well-rounded skill set blending aggressive striking with high-level wrestling and jiu-jitsu. Carolina is a powerful striker with awkward style and good clinch work, but less technical grappling expertise. Montague's ability to impose wrestling and pressure is expected to be decisive.
• No previous fights between Michelle Montague and Luana Carolina have been recorded, making this their first encounter.
• No reported injuries to either fighter ahead of the match.
• Montague's recent drop from featherweight to bantamweight could affect stamina and power but she has previously demonstrated ability to manage weight cuts. The fight location in Perth may favor both fighters equally with no clear home advantage.
• Montague is motivated to continue her undefeated streak and establish herself as a top contender in UFC bantamweight. Carolina aims to leverage striking and clinch skills to upset a highly touted prospect.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Michelle Montague: -230, Luana Carolina: 190	Michelle Montague	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Montague -1.5 rounds / Carolina +1.5 rounds	Montague -1.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	over 2.5 rounds: -150, under 2.5 rounds: 126	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Michelle Montague -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 36%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 36% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Michelle Montague is predicted to win by decision or late round stoppage leveraging superior wrestling and grappling control to neutralize Carolina's striking threat.

Predicted Score: Michelle Montague wins by unanimous decision or submission in Round 3

Match Analysis: Brando Pericic vs Elisha Ellison – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-27
• Time: 11:30 PM UTC
• Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia

Game Overview

This UFC prelim heavyweight bout features Brando Peričić (4-1), a taller fighter with a 196 cm height and 1.96 m reach from USA, versus Elisha Ellison (5-1), a slightly smaller but aggressive Australian fighter, 180 cm tall with 1.8 m reach. Both are relatively inexperienced at the UFC level but known for finishing potential. Peričić has shown vulnerability when fights go beyond early rounds and is susceptible to takedown control. Ellison, fighting at home, is expected to leverage striking and potentially ground control for a finish.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both fighters have strong regional records with a majority wins by finish, but neither has extensive UFC experience. Peričić's lone loss was by submission after fading in later rounds. Ellison exhibits a balanced striking and ground game with momentum as the home favorite.
• No prior head-to-head matchups exist between these fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout.
• Fight takes place in Perth, Australia, giving Ellison home crowd support. The fight is a prelim bout on ESPN+.
• Ellison looks to capitalize on home advantage and continue rising UFC trajectory. Peričić aims to prove resilience and maintain rising status after a submission loss.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Brando Pericic: -225, Elisha Ellison: 186	Elisha Ellison	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	over_1.5: 194, under_1.5: -235	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Brando Pericic 98%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Brando Pericic at 98% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 52.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Elisha Ellison is predicted to win, likely via grappling and controlling Peričić after early exchanges, with a high probability of a finish in the later rounds. If Ellison does not secure an early knockout, his ground control should lead to a submission victory.

Predicted Score: Elisha Ellison wins by submission or TKO in Round 2

Match Analysis: Loma Lookboonmee vs Alexia Thainara – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-27
• Time: 11:05 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Perth, Australia

Game Overview

The UFC Strawweight bout between Loma Lookboonmee and Alexia Thainara features a clash of contrasting styles: Loma’s precise Muay Thai striking and solid takedown defense against Alexia’s aggressive high-volume striking and relentless grappling. Loma, a Thai fighter (10-3), has a size disadvantage but brings technical consistency and scrambling ability. Alexia, a Brazilian striker (12-1) standing taller with longer reach, is coming off a first-round submission win over Molly McCann and carries strong momentum into the fight.

Key Factors to Consider

• Alexia Thainara exhibits a more aggressive striking approach, landing 6.73 strikes per minute but with a lower accuracy of 40%. Loma Lookboonmee relies on efficient, precise Muay Thai striking with solid defensive grappling and good fight pace control. Loma’s recent unanimous decision win over Istela Nunes showcases her technical prowess and control.
• This is the first meeting between Loma Lookboonmee and Alexia Thainara, so no direct head-to-head data exists.
• No reported injuries to either fighter ahead of the bout.
• The fight is part of the UFC Perth prelims, with both fighters motivated to climb the Strawweight rankings. Loma is slightly disadvantaged by size but has home crowd energy and Muay Thai clinch expertise. Alexia faces pressure to maintain her winning streak and prove herself at higher competition levels.
• Loma Lookboonmee aims to extend her winning streak and improve her UFC Strawweight ranking, leveraging her technical skills and experience. Alexia Thainara looks to maintain momentum after a high-profile submission win and enter elite Strawweight contender status.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Alexia Thainara: -245, Loma Lookboonmee: 202	Loma Lookboonmee win	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Loma Lookboonmee +1.5 rounds: -150, Alexia Thainara -1.5 rounds: +130	Loma Lookboonmee +1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -260, Under 2.5 rounds: 214	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Alexia Thainara 96%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Alexia Thainara at 96% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 47.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Despite being the underdog in betting odds, Loma Lookboonmee’s combination of technical striking, takedown defense, and fight IQ gives her a strong chance to outpoint Alexia Thainara, who fights aggressively but with less precision. The fight is expected to go to decision with Loma edging out a victory through superior control and defense.

Predicted Score: Loma Lookboonmee wins by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

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Match Analysis: Jefferson Nascimento vs Baysangur Makaev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-27
• Time: 8:00 PM UTC
• Location: Tenerife Sports Pavillion Santiago Martin, Tenerife, Spain

Game Overview

The interim lightweight title fight at LFA 218 features undefeated champion Jefferson "Toddynho" Nascimento (11-0) from Brazil defending against Sweden's top prospect Baysangur Makaev (7-1). This fight marks LFA's historic debut in Europe and carries significant momentum for both fighters and Spanish MMA. Nascimento is known for balanced finishes (knockouts, submissions, and decisions) and pressure fighting, while Makaev brings a strong motivated approach seeking to end Nascimento's unbeaten streak on home turf in Tenerife.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jefferson Nascimento has an unbeaten 11-0 record, with wins evenly distributed among KOs, submissions, and decisions. Makaev holds a 7-1 record with recent strong performances showcasing resilience and evolving skills. Nascimento appears more consistent but Makaev is motivated by home advantage and the historic event setting.
• No prior fights or official head-to-head records exist between Nascimento and Makaev. This is their first encounter at a high-profile LFA event.
• No reported injuries for either fighter as both made weight at the official weigh-in. Both fighters appeared physically fit and focused during fight week.
• The event's significance as LFA's debut in Europe and the Canary Islands location provides home-crowd support mainly for Makaev, creating additional motivation. The historic nature may add psychological pressure on the unbeaten champion Nascimento.
• Nascimento aims to prove his dominance and strengthen his UFC prospects by defending his title internationally. Makaev aims to showcase Spanish MMA's rise and stop the undefeated champion, with heightened determination for a career-defining victory.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Nascimento: -145, Makaev: +120, Draw: +2200	Nascimento to win	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Nascimento -1.5: +105, Makaev +1.5: -125	Nascimento by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jefferson Nascimento is favored to win due to his undefeated record, balanced finishing capabilities, and championship experience. However, Makaev’s home advantage, motivation, and improving skill set suggest a competitive match with potential for an upset, favoring a decision or late finish victory for Nascimento.

Predicted Score: Nascimento wins by unanimous decision after 5 competitive rounds