Enrico Di Gangi vs. Jack McCloughlin Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Enrico Di Gangi Jack McCloughlin MMA/Boxing November 22, 2025

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Match Analysis: Enrico Di Gangi vs Jack McCloughlin – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 22, 2025
• Time: 6:00 PM UTC
• Location: BEC Arena, Manchester, England

Game Overview

This is a bantamweight bout featuring Jack McLoughlin facing Enrico Di Gangi at Cage Warriors 198 in Manchester. McLoughlin enters as the betting favorite with odds of -205 to -240 across multiple sportsbooks, indicating strong market confidence in his victory. Di Gangi is positioned as the underdog with odds ranging from +143 to +200. Both fighters are competing in a preliminary card bout that precedes the main card events.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jack McLoughlin enters with an unblemished professional record (0-0-0), making this his professional debut or early career appearance. Limited fight history is available in the provided data. Enrico Di Gangi's professional record and fight history are not detailed in the available information.
• No prior head-to-head history exists between these competitors. This appears to be their first scheduled matchup.
• No injury reports or fighter health concerns are documented in the available search results.
• The event is taking place in Manchester, England at the BEC Arena. McLoughlin may have a potential home-region advantage if based in the United Kingdom. The bout is scheduled for the preliminary card, beginning at 18:00 UTC (13:00 ET / 10:00 PT).
• Both fighters are competing in a professional MMA promotion at Cage Warriors 198, a major European mixed martial arts event. The motivation for both competitors is standard professional advancement and victory.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jack McLoughlin -205 / Enrico Di Gangi +155	Jack McLoughlin Victory	★★★☆☆ 67%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jack McCloughlin 58%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jack McCloughlin at 58% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jack McLoughlin is predicted to win this bantamweight matchup. The consistent negative moneyline across multiple reputable sportsbooks (-205 to -240) indicates strong analytical consensus favoring McLoughlin. However, the presence of meaningful underdog odds for Di Gangi (+143 to +200) suggests this is a competitive matchup rather than a heavily lopsided affair.

Predicted Score: Unable to provide specific predicted score – MMA matches do not use traditional scoring systems comparable to team sports. Prediction: Jack McLoughlin wins via decision or submission.

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Sergey Spivak vs. Shamil Gaziev Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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MMA/Boxing November 22, 2025 Sergey Spivak Shamil Gaziev

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Match Analysis: Sergey Spivak vs Shamil Gaziev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 22, 2025
• Time: 6:00 PM UTC
• Location: ABHA Arena, Doha, Qatar

Game Overview

This is a heavyweight matchup between two accomplished fighters in UFC Fight Night 265. Sergey Spivak (17-6-0) faces Shamil Gaziev (14-1-0) in what represents a significant test for both competitors. This fight was originally scheduled for May 17, 2025, then rescheduled to June 7, 2025 before finally being set for November 22, 2025. Gaziev withdrew from the June bout due to a broken finger, which was replaced by another fighter. Both fighters are looking to make a statement in the heavyweight division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Shamil Gaziev enters with an exceptional 14-1 record with a 64% knockout rate (9 KOs out of 15 fights) and 21% submission win rate (3 submissions). His recent performance shows dominance, with a TKO victory over Thomas Petersen on February 1, 2025. Sergey Spivak has a 17-6 record but has faced inconsistent results recently. He lost to Jailton Almeida via TKO at the end of round one on January 18, 2025. However, Spivak demonstrated resilience with a Performance of the Night-caliber armbar submission over Marcin Tybura in August 2024.
• This is the fighters' first scheduled meeting. The fight was previously rescheduled twice, suggesting logistical challenges. Gaziev's superior striking prowess and knockout rate present a significant stylistic threat to Spivak, though Spivak's submission expertise and experience could provide alternative paths to victory.
• Shamil Gaziev previously suffered a broken finger that forced him to withdraw from the June 7, 2025 UFC 316 bout. Current injury status as of November 20, 2025 is not indicated in available information. No recent injuries are reported for Sergey Spivak.
• The fight location in Doha, Qatar represents neutral ground for both fighters. The repeated scheduling changes may have affected fight camp preparation and fighter momentum. Gaziev's recent dominant form and high knockout rate suggest strong conditioning and technical readiness.
• Both fighters have motivation to secure a victory. Gaziev seeks to maintain his elite position in the heavyweight division with his dominant record. Spivak, coming off a recent loss, is motivated to return to winning ways and rebuild his position after the Almeida defeat.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	spivak: -133, gaziev: 112	Shamil Gaziev	★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under	over_1_5: -130, under_1_5: 100	Under 1.5 Rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Shamil Gaziev 10%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 16%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Shamil Gaziev is favored to win this matchup based on superior recent form, exceptional knockout rate (64%), dominant record (14-1), and striking-heavy combat profile. While Sergey Spivak possesses submission skills and fighting experience, Gaziev's striking prowess and recent performance trajectory suggest he is better positioned to control this heavyweight contest.

Predicted Score: Shamil Gaziev via TKO/KO in Round 1 (65% confidence) or Round 2 (28% confidence). Alternative: Sergey Spivak via Submission in Round 2 (7% confidence)

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Shamil Gaziev vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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MMA/Boxing November 22, 2025 Shamil Gaziev Waldo Cortes-Acosta

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Match Analysis: Shamil Gaziev vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 22, 2025
• Time: 6:00 PM UTC
• Location: Qatar

Game Overview

Waldo Cortes-Acosta steps in on short notice (3 days) to replace injured Sergei Spivac against Shamil Gaziev in a UFC heavyweight bout. This is a significant opportunity for Cortes-Acosta, though he recently dealt with an eye poke injury that he overcame to take this fight. Gaziev faces a late-notice opponent replacement, which could present both advantages and disadvantages in fight preparation.

Key Factors to Consider

• Shamil Gaziev is the original scheduled opponent facing a fresh heavyweight matchup. Waldo Cortes-Acosta has accepted a last-minute replacement fight, demonstrating willingness and confidence but facing limited preparation time.
• No prior combat history between these fighters. Both are heavyweight competitors with Gaziev being the primary scheduled fighter.
• Waldo Cortes-Acosta recently suffered an eye poke injury but overcame it to accept this fight on short notice, suggesting either minor severity or exceptional determination. Sergei Spivac's injury necessitated the replacement.
• The 3-day notice for Cortes-Acosta is a substantial disadvantage in fight camp preparation, game planning, and physical conditioning. Fighting on short notice typically favors fighters with experience in such situations. Gaziev may have had extended preparation time disrupted by the opponent change.
• Cortes-Acosta is highly motivated as a replacement fighter earning significant exposure on short notice. Gaziev maintains his scheduled fight opportunity but faces adjustment to a new opponent on the event.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Gaziev +140 | Cortes-Acosta -160	Shamil Gaziev Victory	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 2.5 -115 | Under 2.5 -105	Under 2.5 Rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Waldo Cortes-Acosta 48%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Waldo Cortes-Acosta at 48% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 34% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Shamil Gaziev is favored to win this matchup. The -160 moneyline for Cortes-Acosta (implying approximately 61.5% implied probability) versus +140 for Gaziev (implying approximately 41.7% implied probability) reflects the significant disadvantage of fighting on 3 days notice. Despite Cortes-Acosta's demonstrated willingness and recent eye poke recovery, the limited preparation time and disrupted training camp heavily favor Gaziev, who had planned for this bout.

Predicted Score: Shamil Gaziev defeats Waldo Cortes-Acosta via Submission or Decision in Round 2 (approximately 8-10 minutes). The fight likely remains competitive but Gaziev's superior preparation time and fighter adjustments result in dominant positioning and control, leading to either a late submission or clear-cut decision victory.

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Shay Ingram vs. Wellington Lopes Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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MMA/Boxing November 22, 2025 Shay Ingram Wellington Lopes

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Match Analysis: Shay Ingram vs Wellington Lopes – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-22
• Time: 6:00 PM UTC
• Location: BEC Arena, Manchester

Game Overview

The lightweight bout between Shay Ingram and Wellington Lopes is set for November 22, 2025 at Cage Warriors 198 in Manchester. Both fighters bring solid records with Lopes having more experience and a higher number of wins. Ingram is undefeated but with fewer fights, while Lopes shows a more well-rounded finishing ability, especially by KO/TKO.

Key Factors to Consider

• Shay Ingram stands undefeated with 3 wins (1 submission, 2 decisions) and no losses, indicating consistent performance but limited professional exposure. Wellington Lopes has 7 wins with 4 losses, featuring 3 KOs and 3 decisions, showing effective striking and finishing power.
• This is the first recorded matchup between Shay Ingram and Wellington Lopes; no direct head-to-head data is available.
• No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the match; both made or expected to make weight at lightweight (155 lbs).
• The event is hosted at the BEC Arena in Manchester, which could be considered a neutral location or slightly favorable to Ingram depending on fan distribution. No other notable externalities reported.
• Ingram is motivated to defend his undefeated record and prove himself against a seasoned opponent. Lopes aims to leverage his experience to break Ingram's winning streak and regain momentum after recent losses.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Shay Ingram: -460, Wellington Lopes: 305	Shay Ingram to win	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Shay Ingram -1.5 rounds: -150, Wellington Lopes +1.5 rounds: +130	Shay Ingram to cover the spread	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: +110, Under 2.5 rounds: -130	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Shay Ingram -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Shay Ingram at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Wellington Lopes' experience, knockout power, and higher total number of fights, he is favored to win despite longer odds. Shay Ingram's undefeated status and solid ground game present a strong challenge, but Lopes' finishing ability is likely to be decisive.

Predicted Score: Shay Ingram wins by decision (3 rounds)

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Fran Breen vs. Ayoub Nacer Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Ayoub Nacer Fran Breen MMA/Boxing November 22, 2025

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Match Analysis: Fran Breen vs Ayoub Nacer – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-22
• Time: 6:00 PM UTC
• Location: BEC Arena, Manchester, United Kingdom

Game Overview

The match features two promising flyweight fighters, Fran Breen and Ayoub Nacer, both boasting a 4-1 record. Scheduled for three rounds at Cage Warriors 198, this bout is expected to be a close contest between two skilled competitors in the 125 lbs weight class, each with strong striking and decision wins but limited submission success.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both fighters have demonstrated strong performances with 4 wins and 1 loss each. Fran Breen's wins are evenly split between KO/TKO and decisions (40% each), while Ayoub Nacer shows a similar pattern with 40% KO/TKO and 40% decisions. Neither has recorded submission victories recently, indicating a striking or pacing-oriented fight style.
• This fight is the first encounter between Fran Breen and Ayoub Nacer. Both hold identical records and come with similar momentum, making it a highly competitive matchup with no direct past results to predict from.
• No current injuries or physical impairments have been reported for either fighter ahead of the match.
• The fight is part of the Cage Warriors Fighting Championship 198 event at BEC Arena in Manchester, which may offer a slight crowd and home advantage to local fighter Fran Breen (UK nationality). The event is scheduled for a main card spot at 6:00 PM UTC on November 22, 2025.
• Both athletes are young (Fran Breen is 25, born August 29, 2000; Ayoub Nacer is also 25, born June 5, 2000) and highly motivated to maintain their rising trajectories in the flyweight division. Breen's home advantage and momentum in Cage Warriors provide additional motivation, while Nacer's consistent performances keep him poised for an upset.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Ayoub Nacer: +175, Fran Breen: -230	Fran Breen to win	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Fran Breen -1.5: -110, Ayoub Nacer +1.5: -110	Fran Breen covering -1.5 rounds by decision or finish	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -120, Under 2.5 rounds: +100	Over 2.5 rounds (fight likely to go distance)	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Fran Breen -7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Fran Breen at -7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Fran Breen is favored to win due to the home advantage, comparable skill set, and slightly stronger bookmaker support. His ability to finish and win by decision is balanced but given the odds and setting, he is predicted to edge out Ayoub Nacer in a closely contested fight.

Predicted Score: Fran Breen by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

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Christian Soda vs. Roman David Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Christian Soda MMA/Boxing November 22, 2025 Roman David

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Match Analysis: Christian Soda vs Roman David – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-22
• Time: 6:00 PM UTC
• Location: BEC Arena, Manchester

Game Overview

The lightweight bout between Christian Soda and Roman David is set for three rounds under Cage Warriors Fighting Championship rules at CW 198 in Manchester. Christian Soda (UK) is undefeated with a 1-0 record, winning by decision. Roman David (Ireland) is 0-0 professionally. The match is part of a prelim card and expected to test the contrasting experience levels between the fighters.

Key Factors to Consider

• Christian Soda holds a professional win with 100% of his wins via decision, indicating endurance and tactical fighting. Roman David is debuting professionally with no recorded wins or losses. Neither fighter has recorded finishes, implying a strategic match likely going to decision.
• No prior meetings between Christian Soda and Roman David have been recorded; this is their first professional encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the bout, suggesting both will enter in full fitness.
• The bout takes place at the BEC Arena in Manchester, giving a slight hometown advantage to Christian Soda, who is UK-based, possibly influencing crowd support. No weather or logistical issues reported.
• Christian Soda is defending his unbeaten status and aiming to build momentum in Cage Warriors. Roman David, debuting professionally, is motivated to make a strong first impression in a major regional promotion.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Christian Soda: -205, Roman David: 155	Christian Soda win	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Christian Soda: -1.5 rounds, Roman David: +1.5 rounds	Christian Soda -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	over: 3 rounds (Unspecified odds), under: 3 rounds (Unspecified odds)	Under 3 rounds (fight likely to go distance)	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Christian Soda -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Christian Soda at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Christian Soda is favored due to experience and the current betting odds, with a likely decision win over Roman David in a tactical three-round fight.

Predicted Score: Christian Soda wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

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Chris Morris vs. Theo Pino Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Chris Morris MMA/Boxing November 22, 2025 Theo Pino

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Match Analysis: Chris Morris vs Theo Pino – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-22
• Time: 6:00 PM UTC
• Location: BEC Arena, Manchester

Game Overview

The bout between Chris Morris and Theo Pino is a welterweight MMA prelim fight scheduled for three rounds at Cage Warriors 198 in Manchester. Both fighters are making their professional debut with records of 0-0. The fight takes place on November 22, 2025, at 6 PM UTC, in the lightweight division (170 lbs).

Key Factors to Consider

• Both Chris Morris and Theo Pino have no professional fight records, making it difficult to evaluate their performance trends. Their lack of previous professional MMA experience means past performance data is limited, and all projections rely heavily on physical attributes and training backgrounds.
• There are no previous matches between Chris Morris and Theo Pino, as both fighters have not competed professionally before. This makes the matchup evenly matched based on available data.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter are available from current data.
• The fight is part of the Cage Warriors 198 event in Manchester at the BEC Arena. There are no noted external factors such as travel issues, weight-cutting problems, or other known disruptions affecting the fighters.
• Both fighters are debuting professionally, which implies a high motivation level to establish themselves in the MMA scene. Chris Morris might have a slight home advantage as the event takes place in the UK, potentially boosting his motivation.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Chris Morris: -700, Theo Pino: 425	Chris Morris	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Chris Morris: -1.5, Theo Pino: +1.5	Chris Morris to cover spread -1.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Chris Morris -11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Chris Morris at -11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Chris Morris is favored to win this bout, with a very narrow margin over Theo Pino due to slightly better odds and predictions from multiple sources. The fight is expected to be competitive and potentially decided by submission or KO, with decision outcomes slightly less probable.

Predicted Score: Chris Morris wins by submission or KO in round 2

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Jack Humphries vs. Joab Souza Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Jack Humphries Joab Souza MMA/Boxing November 22, 2025

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Match Analysis: Jack Humphries vs Joab Souza – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 22, 2025
• Time: 6:00 PM UTC
• Location: BEC Arena, Manchester, England

Game Overview

Bantamweight bout between undefeated prospect Jack Humphries (4-0) and veteran Joab Souza (6-7) at Cage Warriors 198. Humphries enters as a heavy favorite with dominant -2500 moneyline odds, reflecting his perfect record and considerable experience advantage over the 12-year younger competitor. This is a significant step up in competition for the 22-year-old Humphries against a fighter with substantial cage experience.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jack Humphries maintains an undefeated 4-0 record with impressive finishing ability (1 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 0 decisions), demonstrating well-rounded striking and grappling skills. Joab Souza presents a 6-7 record with 3 KO/TKO wins, 1 submission, and 1 decision, showing inconsistency but proven durability and experience across 13 professional fights. Humphries has fought 4 times; Souza has fought 13 times—a significant experience disparity.
• No previous matchups exist. This is the first encounter between these fighters. Humphries' youth (age 22) contrasts sharply with Souza's age (34), providing potential advantages in athleticism, recovery, and prime physical condition for Humphries. Humphries' 173 cm height with 68.1 cm reach versus Souza's 169 cm height with 66.5 cm reach gives Humphries marginal physical advantages.
• No injury information reported for either fighter in available sources.
• The bout takes place in Manchester, England—Humphries' home region, providing potential crowd advantage and familiarity with the venue. The bantamweight division at 135 lbs is Humphries' natural weight class with confirmed weigh-in at 136 lbs, while Souza's last confirmed weigh-in information is unavailable. The event features an interim lightweight title bout as the main event, with this bout on the main card.
• Humphries seeks to extend his undefeated record and establish himself as a rising prospect in the promotion. Souza, as a journeyman fighter with losing record, faces pressure to secure a meaningful victory against a highly-touted prospect to revitalize his career trajectory. The matchmaking appears designed to test Humphries' legitimacy against experienced opposition.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jack Humphries -2500 / Joab Souza +1000	Jack Humphries by submission	★★★★☆ 82%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jack Humphries 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jack Humphries at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jack Humphries is predicted to win via submission in rounds 2-3. The extreme -2500 odds reflect legitimate dominance indicators: perfect record, superior finishing rate, physical advantages, and age/athleticism gap. However, Souza's 13 professional fights and 3 KO/TKO victories present unpredictability. Humphries' submission-heavy record (3 of 4 wins) suggests grappling as his primary path to victory. Expect controlled pressure, technical grappling exchanges, and eventual submission victory by round 3 as Humphries demonstrates why he is the clear favorite.

Predicted Score: Jack Humphries defeats Joab Souza by submission (rear-naked choke or arm triangle) at 3:15 of Round 2

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Oliver Tero vs. Davide Manente Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Davide Manente MMA/Boxing November 22, 2025 Oliver Tero

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Match Analysis: Oliver Tero vs Davide Manente – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 22, 2025
• Time: 6:00 PM UTC
• Location: BEC Arena, Manchester

Game Overview

Featherweight bout between Oliver Tero and Davide Manente at Cage Warriors 198. Tero enters as the heavy favorite with a 2-0 record, while Manente holds a 0-2-1 record. This is a preliminary card featherweight matchup scheduled for 3 rounds.

Key Factors to Consider

• Oliver Tero is undefeated with 2 wins (both by KO/TKO, 100% finishing rate), demonstrating dominant striking power. Davide Manente is winless with 0-2-1 record, showing 50% of losses via submission and 50% via decision, indicating vulnerability in grappling exchanges and overall competitiveness.
• No previous matchup history available between these fighters.
• No injury information available in provided data.
• This is a preliminary bout at Cage Warriors 198 in Manchester. Tero is from the United Kingdom and fights from a local advantage position. Both fighters are competing at 145 lbs featherweight.
• Tero is motivated to extend his undefeated streak and maintain his position in the featherweight division. Manente is seeking his first professional victory to improve his 0-2-1 record.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Tero -600 / Manente +375	Oliver Tero	★★★★☆ 82%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Oliver Tero -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Oliver Tero at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Oliver Tero is strongly favored to win this matchup. His perfect 2-0 record with 100% KO/TKO finish rate suggests superior striking capability and dominance, while Manente's 0-2-1 record indicates he is struggling at this competition level. The significant odds gap (-600 vs +375) reflects Tero's clear superiority. Expect Tero to control the fight and likely secure another early finish.

Predicted Score: Oliver Tero wins by KO/TKO in Round 1 or 2

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Bogdan Grad vs. Luke Riley Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Bogdan Grad Luke Riley MMA/Boxing November 22, 2025

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Match Analysis: Bogdan Grad vs Luke Riley – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-22
• Time: 5:45 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Fight Night 265, Doha, Qatar

Game Overview

The match features Bogdan Grad facing off against Luke Riley at UFC Fight Night 265 in Doha, Qatar. Riley enters this bout with an undefeated 11-0 record, making his UFC debut after a successful Cage Warriors career. Grad, a more experienced UFC fighter with a 15-3 record, brings veteran status and notable striking power. The bout is expected to be highly competitive with both fighters known for aggressive striking.

Key Factors to Consider

• Luke Riley boasts an 11-0 undefeated record, having showcased dominant striking and cardio in Cage Warriors. Bogdan Grad is an experienced UFC fighter with a 15-3 record, known for power striking and resilience under pressure, but has suffered recent mixed results at UFC level.
• This is the first meeting between Bogdan Grad and Luke Riley with no prior head-to-head history.
• No reported recent injuries for either Bogdan Grad or Luke Riley ahead of the fight.
• The fight takes place in Doha, Qatar, potentially favoring neither fighter directly but involving travel and acclimatization considerations. Weather and venue conditions are standardized for UFC events, limiting external impacts.
• Luke Riley is highly motivated making his UFC debut, eager to maintain his undefeated streak and establish himself among elite fighters. Bogdan Grad aims to assert UFC veteran dominance and avenge any setbacks, making this a high-stakes bout for both competitors.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Bogdan Grad: +220, Luke Riley: -270	Luke Riley	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Bogdan Grad: +5.5 (-105), Luke Riley: -5.5 (-130)	Luke Riley to cover -5.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 1.5: -215, Under 1.5: +165	Under 1.5 rounds ( Fight likely to last longer but without early finishes )	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Luke Riley -15%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 72%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 72% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 43.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Luke Riley's undefeated record, youth, and momentum combined with Bogdan Grad's experience but recent inconsistencies, the prediction leans towards Luke Riley winning via decision or late stoppage.

Predicted Score: Luke Riley wins by unanimous decision or late round TKO

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