Match Analysis: Melissa Croden vs Tainara Lisboa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 8:15 PM UTC
• Location: Rogers Arena, Vancouver, Canada

Game Overview

This is a UFC Bantamweight prelims bout between Canadian debutant Melissa Croden (6-2-0, 0-0 UFC) and Tainara Lisboa (7-3-0, 1-2 UFC), with Croden making her promotional debut in her home country and Lisboa seeking to rebound from a spotty UFC start[2][4]. Lisboa brings more UFC experience and a technically proficient striking base, while Croden is touted for her well-rounded skill set, including grappling and proven finishing ability. The odds are nearly even, underscoring a competitive matchup in a technical, high-paced division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Croden is considered a rising prospect with a strong regional record and finishes in 5 of her 6 wins, though she is untested at the UFC level[2][7]. Lisboa has faced tougher competition, with mixed results: she has UFC experience, but has struggled to consistently prove herself among ranked opponents[4]. The fight will likely hinge on whether Croden can rise to the UFC's pace and pressure, or if Lisboa's technical edge and experience will show through.
• There is no prior head-to-head history between the two fighters.
• No notable injuries reported for either fighter.
• Croden debuts in Canada, which could provide a modest crowd advantage, but Lisboa has been here before and is not known to be negatively impacted by travel. Both are fighting on prelims, so there is no major co-main or main event pressure[2]. The bout is not specifically impacted by regulatory or promotional factors.
• Croden is highly motivated for her UFC debut and eager to prove herself on the big stage, especially fighting in her home country[5][7]. Lisboa needs a win to secure her place in the UFC after a 1-2 start, so she is fighting for her roster spot.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Melissa Croden -118 / Tainara Lisboa -102	Tainara Lisboa by decision	55% (Slight Lean)
Spread	Croden -3.5 +140 / Lisboa +3.5 -195	Lisboa covers +3.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5 -220 / Under 2.5 +170	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 80%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Tainara Lisboa 5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 9%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Lisbon's higher level of experience and technical proficiency, she is a slight favorite, but Croden's finishing instincts and home-field advantage make this a true coin-flip. Expect a competitive three-rounder with Lisboa likely edging a decision on the scorecards, given her experience and the step up in class for Croden. If Croden finds an early finish, as she has suggested is her gameplan, it would not be a surprise, but the odds and data tilt slightly toward Lisboa[3][5].

Predicted Score: Tainara Lisboa def. Melissa Croden by unanimous decision (29-28 x3).

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Match Analysis: Christian Eckerlin vs Ivica Trušček – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 5:00 PM UTC
• Location: Lanxess Arena, Cologne, Germany

Game Overview

OKTAGON 78 features a main event between Germany's rising prospect Christian Eckerlin, fighting on home soil, and Croatia's battle-tested veteran Ivica 'Terror' Trušček, who boasts over 80 professional MMA bouts—a rare level of experience in the sport. Eckerlin is younger, perhaps faster, and carries the momentum of his undefeated record at home. Trušček, meanwhile, is known for his durability, fight IQ, and ability to finish fights (41 KOs/SUBs in 81+ bouts)[1][7]. The clash is seen as a litmus test for Eckerlin's potential against elite European competition, and a chance for Trušček to prove that veteran savvy can still trump youth and hype[4].

Key Factors to Consider

• Eckerlin is a rising, undefeated star in German MMA, with a loyal fanbase and home-cage advantage. Trušček is one of the most experienced active fighters in Europe, having competed at the highest levels for over 17 years and amassed 83+ professional fights[7]. His fight IQ and composure under pressure are key assets.
• No previous meetings between these fighters. This is a classic 'youth vs. experience' matchup in European MMA.
• No public reports of injuries or suspensions for either fighter ahead of the event.
• The event will be broadcast live on Germany's second-largest TV network (RTL), raising the stakes for both fighters and increasing the home-crowd effect for Eckerlin[4]. Trušček is accustomed to fighting on hostile territory and has stated he uses crowd energy as motivation[3].
• Eckerlin is fighting for national pride and to cement his status as a regional superstar. Trušček is motivated by proving that veteran experience and technique can still dominate, and he has explicitly stated his love for competition remains undiminished[3].

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Eckerlin: +120 | Trušček: -140 (estimated, based on typical market for youth vs. experience in regional MMA)	Trušček by decision or late submission	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	Trušček -1.5 rounds (estimated)	Trušček to win by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -150 | Under 2.5 rounds: +120 (estimated)	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 100% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

This is a close matchup with arguments for both sides. Eckerlin has youth, momentum, and home advantage; Trušček has vastly superior experience and a proven ability to finish fights. The fight could go either way, but Trušček’s durability, composure, and finishing ability give him a slight edge, especially if the bout goes beyond the early rounds. Expect a competitive, technical bout with Trušček potentially securing a late submission or decision win.

Predicted Score: Ivica Trušček def. Christian Eckerlin, Round 3 Submission (Guillotine Choke)

Match Analysis: Karim Henniene vs Boule Godogo – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: BK Arena, Kigali, Rwanda

Game Overview

PFL Africa bantamweight semifinal between unbeaten prospects Karim Henniene (5-0) and Boule Godogo (4-0), fighting for a spot in the inaugural PFL Africa tournament finals. Both enter with perfect records—a rare clash of undefeated talents in African MMA. The event is a major moment for the continent’s growing professional scene, hosted by the globally expanding PFL franchise[3].

Key Factors to Consider

• Both fighters are undefeated, but Henniene has one more pro win (5-0 vs. Godogo’s 4-0). Godogo has a 50% finish rate (2 KOs, 2 decisions), while Henniene’s finish rate is unknown. Both have shown resilience and finishing ability, but Henniene is slightly more experienced[1][3].
• No prior head-to-head meetings between Henniene and Godogo. This is a fresh, high-stakes bout in the PFL Africa semifinals[1][3].
• No injury information available for either fighter in the search results.
• MMA events in Africa are gaining momentum, and both fighters have a rare opportunity to advance in a globally recognized league tournament. Home continent advantage may be neutralized by the international nature of the event and the novelty of the PFL Africa platform[3].
• Both are highly motivated to maintain their unbeaten records and progress in a historic tournament that elevates their profiles in global MMA. The semifinal format intensifies pressure, possibly favoring the more experienced fighter.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Henniene -160, Godogo +140	Henniene by decision	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds -170, Under 2.5 rounds +149	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Karim Henniene 41%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 0%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Karim Henniene at 41% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Lean towards Karim Henniene by decision or late stoppage. His slight experience edge and mild betting line favoritism suggest he is the more likely winner, though Godogo’s finishing ability means he is always dangerous. Expect a competitive, tactically rich fight that could go the distance, but Henniene’s composure under pressure should prevail[2].

Predicted Score: Karim Henniene def. Boule Godogo by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Match Analysis: Simbarashe Hokonya vs Nkosi Ndebele – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: PFL Africa event venue (exact venue not explicitly stated in sources)

Game Overview

The bantamweight MMA bout features unbeaten Zimbabwean rising star Simbarashe Hokonya (6–0) against Nkosi Ndebele, a seasoned fighter known as the 'King of Many Nations'. Both athletes are competing at PFL Africa, with Ndebele aiming to reinforce his dominance and Hokonya looking to extend his undefeated record.

Key Factors to Consider

• Simbarashe Hokonya comes into the fight undefeated with a 6–0 record showcasing rising talent and momentum. Nkosi Ndebele, an established veteran, carries experience and a reputation as a dominant competitor, providing him with tactical and psychological advantages.
• No prior matchups between Hokonya and Ndebele were found, indicating this is their first meeting.
• No publicly reported injuries affecting either fighter ahead of this match.
• The fight is part of the PFL Africa event series, which adds significant exposure and pressure. It is likely held in Africa, with the time set in UTC, which should not majorly disadvantage either fighter based on location.
• Ndebele is motivated to reassert himself as the bantamweight king, while Hokonya aims to maintain his perfect record, both fighters highly motivated to win to progress in the PFL league.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Nkosi Ndebele: -300, Simbarashe Hokonya: 250	Nkosi Ndebele	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -150, Under 2.5 rounds: 130	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Nkosi Ndebele -7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 38%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 38% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Nkosi Ndebele is favored to win the match owing to greater experience and the current odds strongly favoring him. However, Hokonya's undefeated streak and rising talent make the fight competitive.

Predicted Score: Nkosi Ndebele wins by TKO in round 2

Match Analysis: Patrick Ocheme vs Abdoul Razac Sankara – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Kigali, Rwanda

Game Overview

The MMA match between Patrick Ocheme and Abdoul Razac Sankara is a featured bout on the main card of PFL Africa 3 on October 18, 2025. Both fighters have a dynamic fighting style with Ocheme having a strong knockout record and Sankara showing resilience and versatility in his fights. The match is part of the PFL Africa tournament, emphasizing regional talent under the Professional Fighters League banner.

Key Factors to Consider

• Patrick Ocheme has achieved four of his seven career wins via KO/TKO, highlighting his striking power. Sankara brings experience and a balanced skill set, having faced diverse opponents in the PFL Africa circuit. Ocheme's aggressive approach contrasts with Sankara's tactical fighting style.
• This match marks a significant face-off; there is limited public record of previous direct encounters between Ocheme and Sankara, indicating a fresh tactical matchup without prior fight history.
• No publicly disclosed injuries have been reported for either fighter leading up to the bout.
• The event’s location in Kigali, Rwanda, is neutral ground for both fighters, diminishing any home advantage. The PFL league format and stakes may contribute to heightened motivation for both competitors.
• Both fighters are motivated by advancement in the PFL Africa tournament. Ocheme aims to capitalize on his knockout power to assert dominance, while Sankara looks to leverage experience and endurance to secure victory.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Patrick Ocheme: -190, Abdoul Razac Sankara: 165	Patrick Ocheme	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Patrick Ocheme: -1.5 (+150), Abdoul Razac Sankara: +1.5 (-170)	Patrick Ocheme to win by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	over_1.5: -150, under_1.5: 130	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Patrick Ocheme -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 -8%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Patrick Ocheme at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Patrick Ocheme is favored to win by a narrow margin due to his superior striking and finishing ability. However, the tactical adaptability of Abdoul Razac Sankara could lead to a strategic, possibly longer fight.

Predicted Score: Patrick Ocheme wins by TKO in Round 2

Match Analysis: Maxwell Djantou Nana vs Justin Clarke – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: PFL Africa 3 (Venue not explicitly stated in sources)

Game Overview

This heavyweight MMA bout features Maxwell Djantou Nana, a 7-1 fighter from Cameroon based in France with a strong knockout record, facing Justin Clarke, an underdog with odds significantly against him. The fight is part of the PFL Africa 3 event on October 18, 2025.

Key Factors to Consider

• Maxwell Djantou Nana fights out of Manchester Top Team and holds a solid 7-1 record, showcasing a high KO ratio (57.1%) and a very low rate of decisions won (14.3%), indicating a strong finishing ability. Justin Clarke's detailed stats are not provided, but odds suggest he is the underdog.
• No previous matchup or direct fight history between Maxwell Djantou Nana and Justin Clarke is found in the available data, indicating this is likely their first encounter.
• No reported injuries or health concerns found for either fighter ahead of the match.
• The match is held at PFL Africa 3, which may provide some regional home advantage or familiarity for Maxwell Djantou Nana, who fights out of France but is originally from Cameroon, potentially near the event location.
• Maxwell Djantou Nana enters as the favorite likely motivated to maintain his strong winning streak and reinforce his heavyweight status. Justin Clarke appears motivated as the underdog to upset the favorite and improve his record.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -500, away: 385	Maxwell Djantou Nana	★★★★☆ 85%
Over/under	over: 149, under: -170	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Maxwell Djantou Nana -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Maxwell Djantou Nana at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Maxwell Djantou Nana is predicted to win by knockout or technical knockout given his high KO finishing rate and strong record, with Justin Clarke as a long shot to upset.

Predicted Score: Maxwell Djantou Nana wins by KO/TKO in round 1 or early round 2

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Match Analysis: Shido Boris Esperanca vs Ayinda Octave – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Unknown

Game Overview

This MMA match features Shido Boris Esperanca versus the unbeaten Ayinda Octave. Esperanca, a PFL Africa semifinalist, is recognized as one of Africa's top mixed martial artists and has recently demonstrated quick submission skills advancing in welterweight semifinals. Ayinda Octave enters undefeated, making this a clash between proven experience and rising perfection.

Key Factors to Consider

• Esperanca brings strong experience and recent momentum with impressive submission finishes in the semifinals, showcasing advanced grappling. Octave, undefeated, has maintained a perfect record, indicating consistent high-level performances with likely striking and overall MMA versatility.
• No direct head-to-head history is recorded between Shido Boris Esperanca and Ayinda Octave, making this a fresh matchup without prior matchup data.
• No explicit injury reports are available for either fighter prior to this bout.
• No notable external factors such as venue bias or weather apply here. The match is at a neutral setting without a clear home advantage and no reported disruptions.
• Esperanca is motivated by advancing further in the welterweight semifinals and maintaining his status as a top African MMA competitor, while Octave aims to preserve his perfect undefeated record, providing strong psychological incentives for both.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Shido Boris Esperanca: -240, Ayinda Octave: 205	Shido Boris Esperanca	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Shido Boris Esperanca: -1.5, Ayinda Octave: +1.5	Esperanca by more than 1.5 rounds or dominant finish	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	over_1.5_rounds: 140, under_1.5_rounds: -160	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Shido Boris Esperanca -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Shido Boris Esperanca at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Shido Boris Esperanca favored to win due to greater experience, recent quick submission form, and stronger odds reflecting confidence by bookmakers.

Predicted Score: Victory for Shido Boris Esperanca via submission or decision within 2 rounds

Match Analysis: Abraham Bably vs Joffie Houlton – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: PFL Africa 3 (exact location not specified in sources)

Game Overview

Heavyweight clash between London’s Abraham Bably (6-2-0) and Stoke’s Joffie Houlton (8-4-0). Both fighters are coming off recent wins and have distinct stylistic strengths—Bably with a strong knockout game and Houlton with a balanced submission and knockout threat. Bably is the overwhelming favorite in betting markets, but Houlton has experience and a height/reach advantage[2][4].

Key Factors to Consider

• Bably has a 6-2 record (50% by KO, 33% by decision, no submissions)[2]. Houlton is 8-4 (37.5% by KO, 37.5% by submission, 0% by decision)[4]. Both are active and in form, but Bably’s fights have been at a higher level of competition.
• No prior meetings found between the two fighters.
• No injury reports for either fighter from publicly available sources.
• The bout is part of PFL Africa 3, a major regional event. No notable external factors (e.g., travel, referee bias) are reported.
• Both fighters are climbing the ranks. Bably is looking to cement his status as a rising contender, while Houlton could make a significant leap with an upset win.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Abraham Bably: -1200, Joffie Houlton: +750	Abraham Bably win	Very High (88%)
Over/under	Over 1.5 Rounds: +180, Under 1.5 Rounds: -210	Under 1.5 Rounds	High (75%)

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Abraham Bably -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -11%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Abraham Bably at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Abraham Bably is favored to win by knockout given his superior finishing rate and the odds, but Joffie Houlton has the tools (submissions, height) to surprise if the fight goes past the first round. The moneyline, spread, and over/under all suggest Bably’s dominance and a likely early finish[2][4].

Predicted Score: Abraham Bably by KO/TKO (round 1)

Match Analysis: Alina Dalaslan vs Katharina Lehner – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: OKTAGON MMA event, location not specified

Game Overview

The fight between Alina Dalaslan and Katharina Lehner is a Bantamweight division main card bout under OKTAGON MMA scheduled for October 18, 2025, at 18:00 UTC. Dalaslan is undefeated with a 3-0 record, relying mostly on KO/TKO finishes, while Lehner is a veteran with a 9-7 record featuring mostly decision wins. Both fighters stand 170 cm tall with equal reach, but Dalaslan is notably younger at 25 years compared to Lehner's 35 years. Lehner brings significant experience from Bellator and Invicta, known for her aggressive striking and durability.

Key Factors to Consider

• Alina Dalaslan has won all 3 of her professional fights, achieving all victories by KO/TKO, showing a strong finishing capability but with limited professional exposure. Katharina Lehner has a deeper professional background with 16 fights, 9 wins, and 7 losses, with most victories by decision, indicating a more grinding and tactical approach rather than finishes.
• No previous recorded fights or direct encounters between Alina Dalaslan and Katharina Lehner exist, making this their first matchup.
• No reported injuries or fitness concerns have been indicated for either fighter at this time.
• The fight is part of the OKTAGON 78 card in the Bantamweight division in Cologne. No unusual external factors such as travel issues or venue concerns appear to impact either fighter.
• Dalasan being younger and undefeated is likely highly motivated to defend her status and prove herself against a seasoned veteran. Lehner as the more experienced fighter may be motivated to leverage her experience to overcome an undefeated but less tested opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Alina Dalaslan: -2000, Katharina Lehner: 1000	Alina Dalaslan	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Alina Dalaslan: -1.5 rounds (-150), Katharina Lehner: +1.5 rounds (+130)	Alina Dalaslan to win by more than 1.5 rounds (likely early finish)	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110	Under 2.5 rounds (likely early finish given Dalaslan's KO power)	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Alina Dalaslan -7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Alina Dalaslan at -7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Alina Dalaslan is favored due to her undefeated KO/TKO streak and youth advantage, predicted to win primarily by knockout or technical knockout, but Katharina Lehner's experience and endurance pose a viable challenge, likely pushing the fight longer if not finished early.

Predicted Score: Alina Dalaslan wins by KO/TKO in round 2