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Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-25
  • Time: 8:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Game Overview

UFC 321 headline bout features current heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall defending his title against former interim champion Ciryl Gane. Both fighters have strong records with contrasting styles — Aspinall emphasizes effective takedown defense and ground control, while Gane is known for his striking accuracy and technical stand-up game.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Tom Aspinall holds a 15-3 record, showcasing very strong takedown accuracy (100%) and a solid average of 3.27 takedowns per fight, complemented by a high strike accuracy (68.53%). Ciryl Gane has a 13-2 record with superior striking volume (8.07 significant strikes per minute) and high strike accuracy (63.22%), but lower takedown average (0.70) and accuracy (25%). Aspinall's wrestling edge contrasts with Gane's technical striking advantage.
  • This will be their first official fight, making head-to-head data unavailable, emphasizing the importance of style matchup analysis and recent form.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, allowing both to compete at full strength.
  • The fight takes place at the Etihad Arena on Yas Island, Abu Dhabi—a neutral yet high-profile setting that has historically hosted major UFC events. Factors such as travel and environment are expected to be equally managed by both fighters.
  • Aspinall is motivated to retain the heavyweight title and solidify his status as the undisputed champion. Gane aims to reclaim his position atop the division and avenge his loss of the interim title, adding psychological drive for this high-stakes encounter.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Tom Aspinall: -355, Ciryl Gane: 280 Tom Aspinall to win ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Tom Aspinall: -13.5 -310, Ciryl Gane: 13.5 215 Tom Aspinall to cover -13.5 spread ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over: 1.5 -120, Under: 1.5 -110 Under 1.5 rounds (fight likely to go past midway) ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Tom Aspinall -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 1.5 24%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Aspinall’s superior wrestling metrics and takedown defense, combined with his pressure fighting style, he is favored to control the fight and secure a victory, potentially by ground-and-pound or submission. Gane’s striking skill could pose significant risks if he maintains distance and pace, but the odds emphasize Aspinall’s edge.

Predicted Score: Tom Aspinall wins via unanimous decision or third-round TKO


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Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-25
  • Time: 7:45 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC 321 Event Venue (Final venue not explicitly specified in sources)

Game Overview

The MMA match between Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern at UFC 321 is a highly anticipated title fight. Both fighters are grappling specialists, with previous encounters that set the stage for a competitive rematch. Despite some criticism labeling the fight as 'insignificant' by analysts, it remains a pivotal moment for both athletes for career advancement.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Mackenzie Dern has a slightly better recent performance record with more high-profile wins and a reputation for aggressive grappling, while Virna Jandiroba maintains strong submission skills and durability. Dern's technique has shown marginal superiority in their first fight.
  • They faced each other recently at UFC 321, with Dern emerging dominant by controlling pace and ground exchanges, indicating a psychological edge heading into this match.
  • No current injuries reported for either fighter that could negatively impact performance.
  • The fight occurs within a highly structured UFC environment with no noted external disruptions. Press conference intensity was high but typical, showing normal fighter motivation and readiness.
  • Both fighters are motivated to secure the title and solidify their legacy in the division, with Dern slightly favored due to prior victory and higher betting market confidence.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Mackenzie Dern: -148, Virna Jandiroba: 124 Mackenzie Dern ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Mackenzie Dern -5.5: 105, Virna Jandiroba +5.5: -145 Mackenzie Dern -5.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 4.5: -125, Under 4.5: -105 Under 4.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Mackenzie Dern -6%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 4.5 7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 4.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mackenzie Dern is predicted to win based on previous performance, superior grappling control, and favorable odds. The fight is expected to be competitive but dominated by Dern's tactical approach.

Predicted Score: Mackenzie Dern wins by submission in Round 4


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Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-25
  • Time: 7:15 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC Main Event Venue (exact venue not specified)

Game Overview

The UFC Bantamweight main card fight features Umar Nurmagomedov against Mario Bautista, scheduled for October 25, 2025. Nurmagomedov is a strong grappler with a well-rounded skill set, while Bautista is confident and anticipates a competitive fight involving stand-up and mat work. Both fighters are considered well-rounded, promising an exciting matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Umar Nurmagomedov has demonstrated consistent high-level performance in past UFC matches, known for his grappling dominance and strategic fighting style. Mario Bautista recently scored an upset win over Patchy Mix, showing strong striking and resilience. Both fighters have balanced skill sets with the ability to adapt during fights.
  • There is no recorded previous match between Umar Nurmagomedov and Mario Bautista, making this their first direct encounter.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the match, implying both are likely to compete at full capacity.
  • The fight is positioned as a significant stepping stone toward a bantamweight title shot. Both fighters are aware of the high stakes, potentially increasing motivation and intensity. No other external disruptions or conditions are indicated.
  • Both have strong motivation; Nurmagomedov aims to maintain his undefeated momentum and enhance title contention prospects. Bautista is motivated by his recent high-profile win and seeks to capitalize with a potential knockout to advance his UFC standing.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Mario Bautista: 455, Umar Nurmagomedov: -625 Umar Nurmagomedov to win ★★★★☆ 85%
Spread Mario Bautista: 5.5 100, Umar Nurmagomedov: -5.5 -135 Umar Nurmagomedov to win by more than 5.5 points (dominant victory) ★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under Over: 2.5 -260, Under: 2.5 195 Under 2.5 rounds, suggesting an early finish ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Umar Nurmagomedov -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 112%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 112% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 57.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Umar Nurmagomedov is favored to win due to his superior grappling and defensive skills, reflected in the moneyline odds and general expert views. However, Mario Bautista’s recent form and striking ability present a credible threat, suggesting a competitive fight with possible momentum shifts.

Predicted Score: Umar Nurmagomedov wins by TKO or submission in Round 2


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Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Alexander Volkov vs Jailton Almeida – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-25
  • Time: 6:45 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC 321, Abu Dhabi

Game Overview

The UFC 321 heavyweight bout features Alexander Volkov, a seasoned striker with a background in wrestling and grappling, facing the rising star Jailton Almeida, known for his grappling dominance and improving striking. The fight is highly anticipated as both fighters seek to solidify their position in the heavyweight division at a major UFC event in Abu Dhabi.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Alexander Volkov brings extensive experience with a well-rounded skill set combining knockout power and grappling skills. Jailton Almeida has demonstrated strong grappling control and submission capabilities, with improving striking that complements his aggressive fighting style. Almeida’s recent performances show rising momentum, while Volkov aims to maintain his veteran status.
  • This is their first direct matchup; no previous head-to-head history exists between Volkov and Almeida.
  • No known injuries for either fighter reported leading up to the fight, indicating both are in full preparation mode for their UFC 321 clash.
  • The fight takes place at UFC 321 in Abu Dhabi, offering a neutral international venue with no apparent environmental or logistical disadvantages to either fighter.
  • Volkov is motivated to deliver a knockout performance and showcase his wrestling and grappling skills as stated in pre-fight interviews. Almeida is focused on continuing his climb in the heavyweight rankings, aiming to demonstrate his versatility beyond grappling to challenge for top contention.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Alexander Volkov: +164, Jailton Almeida: -198 Jailton Almeida ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Alexander Volkov: +7.5 100, Jailton Almeida: -7.5 -135 Jailton Almeida to cover -7.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over: 1.5 -130, Under: 1.5 100 Over 1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Jailton Almeida -14%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 1.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jailton Almeida is favored to win due to stronger recent form, higher confidence in grappling dominance, and better moneyline odds. However, Alexander Volkov’s experience and knockout capability keep the fight competitive, with a plausible outcome of Almeida winning by submission or decision.

Predicted Score: Jailton Almeida wins by submission in round 3


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Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Aleksandar Rakic vs Azamat Murzakanov – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-25
  • Time: 6:15 PM UTC
  • Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi

Game Overview

The UFC Light Heavyweight main card fight features Aleksandar Rakic facing Azamat Murzakanov. Rakic is a seasoned contender known for technical striking and experience at the highest levels, while Murzakanov is a powerful and aggressive newcomer seeking to establish himself after recent challenges.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Aleksandar Rakic has demonstrated consistent performance in the Light Heavyweight division with solid striking accuracy, tactical grappling defense, and experience against top opponents. Murzakanov brings a high finishing rate with knockout power but has faced setbacks recently, including a pressure to end a losing streak by changing camps and intensifying his preparation.
  • No previous fights have occurred between Rakic and Murzakanov, making this an inaugural matchup with stylistic intrigue between Rakic’s technical precision and Murzakanov’s explosive power.
  • No reported injuries from either fighter leading up to the bout, indicating both are entering the fight at full fitness.
  • The fight takes place at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, known for hosting major UFC events, with a significant crowd that could energize the fighters. Murzakanov has mentioned strong local support and media attention, resulting in added motivation but also considerable pressure.
  • Murzakanov enters with motivation to reverse a three-fight losing streak and prove himself after changing training camps. Rakic aims to maintain his standing and capitalize on experienced composure against a rising challenger.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Aleksandar Rakic: -108, Azamat Murzakanov: -112 Aleksandar Rakic ★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread Aleksandar Rakic: 3.5 -170, Azamat Murzakanov: -3.5 125 Aleksandar Rakic +3.5 (cover the spread) ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 2.5: -115, Under 2.5: -115 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Aleksandar Rakic 0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Rakic's technical skill, experience, and consistent performances versus Murzakanov’s power and recent struggles, the prediction leans toward Aleksandar Rakic winning by decision or late stoppage, as Murzakanov may face difficulties overcoming Rakic's strategic approach.

Predicted Score: Aleksandar Rakic wins via unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)


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Andrea Bicchi vs. Tomas Melis Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Andrea Bicchi vs Tomas Melis – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-25
  • Time: 6:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Palazzo Dello Sport, Rome, Italy

Game Overview

Andrea Bicchi (4-2 bare knuckle) faces Tomas Melis (1-0 bare knuckle) in a light heavyweight bout at BKFC 83. Bicchi has significantly more experience, including fighting for the BKFC cruiserweight title earlier in the year, while Melis is largely untested at this level with only a single fight under his belt. The bout is part of a high-profile event headlined by a cruiserweight title fight, adding to the stakes for both fighters. The matchup is viewed as a test for Melis's potential and a chance for Bicchi to get back on track after a recent title loss.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Andrea Bicchi has a 4-2 record in bare-knuckle boxing, having already competed in a title fight, which speaks to his experience and caliber. Tomas Melis, while undefeated, has only one professional bout, making him relatively inexperienced at this level of competition. Bicchi's recent schedule has been against higher-level opponents, which could give him an edge in preparation and adaptability.
  • There is no record of previous head-to-head meetings between Bicchi and Melis. This will be their first encounter.
  • No public information is available regarding injuries for either fighter leading into this bout.
  • The event is taking place in Italy, possibly offering Bicchi a home-crowd advantage. The high-profile nature of BKFC 83 may add pressure on both fighters to perform.
  • Bicchi may be highly motivated to bounce back from his recent title loss and solidify his standing in the division. Melis, as a newcomer, will be eager to prove himself against a seasoned opponent and make a name in the promotion.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Bicchi -200, Melis +170 Bicchi win ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Andrea Bicchi 80%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Andrea Bicchi at 80% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 47.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Andrea Bicchi is favored to win due to his experience, proven track record, and higher level of competition. Tomas Melis remains a wildcard, but the lack of data on his performance at this level makes it difficult to project an upset. The most likely outcome is a Bicchi victory, possibly by decision.

Predicted Score: Andrea Bicchi wins by unanimous decision


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Nasrat Haqparast vs. Quillan Salkilld Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Nasrat Haqparast vs Quillan Salkilld – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-25
  • Time: 5:45 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC 321 Event Venue (Exact venue not specified in sources)

Game Overview

The lightweight bout features Nasrat Haqparast, a seasoned methodical striker with 14 UFC fights, facing off against the younger and well-rounded Quillan Salkilld, who combines strong striking and wrestling skills with an evolving fight IQ. This fight tests veteran experience against youthful momentum and adaptability.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Haqparast is known for his durability, composure under pressure, and sharper boxing skills, pushing the pace early. Salkilld exhibits athleticism, clean striking, effective takedown timing, and positional control, but sometimes suffers from high energy expenditure impacting his gas tank.
  • No direct previous matchups between Haqparast and Salkilld; this will be their first encounter.
  • No reported injuries or health issues affecting either fighter ahead of the bout.
  • As a featured prelim on the UFC 321 card, both fighters are motivated to impress, but no unusual external factors like travel issues or weather are currently reported.
  • Haqparast aims to leverage his veteran savvy and win a decision by imposing pressure, while Salkilld looks to use his versatility and youth to control range and possibly capitalize on grappling.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Nasrat Haqparast: -110, Quillan Salkilld: -110 Nasrat Haqparast to win ★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread Nasrat Haqparast: -3.5 165, Quillan Salkilld: +3.5 -230 Nasrat Haqparast to win by more than 3.5 points (decision rounds equivalent) ★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under over: 2.5 -215, under: 2.5 165 Over 2.5 rounds (likely to go to decision) ★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Nasrat Haqparast -8%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 -5%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Nasrat Haqparast is slightly favored to win a competitive decision due to his experience, composure, and ability to cope with pressure, despite Salkilld's dynamic and evolving skill set. The fight is expected to go the distance with Haqparast edging out in points.

Predicted Score: 29-28 Nasrat Haqparast


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Ikram Aliskerov vs. Jun Yong Park Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Ikram Aliskerov vs Jun Yong Park – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-25
  • Time: 5:20 PM UTC
  • Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, UAE

Game Overview

The UFC 321 middleweight prelims fight between Ikram Aliskerov and Jun Yong Park pits a fast-finishing Russian grappler against a seasoned Korean striker known as 'The Iron Turtle.' Aliskerov is coming off a first-round TKO win and has only lost to elite fighters, while Park is on a two-fight winning streak featuring decision victories. The matchup will likely be decided by grappling control versus striking pressure in what is expected to be a fast-paced contest.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Ikram Aliskerov boasts a 16-2 record with 3 first-round knockouts in the UFC and has an aggressive style with average fight time around 2.75 minutes. Jun Yong Park holds a 19-6 record and brings more UFC cage time with a boxing background and solid decision wins. Aliskerov is known for high takedown accuracy and clinch control, while Park is durable but has shown vulnerability to heavy hitters.
  • There is no recorded direct matchup between Ikram Aliskerov and Jun Yong Park, but Aliskerov's only losses are to elite opponents Robert Whittaker and Khamzat Chimaev, indicating strong competitive pedigree compared to Park's path which has yet to face top-tier fighters.
  • No significant recent injuries have been reported for either fighter prior to this bout, suggesting both competitors are in full health going into the match.
  • The fight takes place at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, neutral ground favoring neither fighter geographically. The main card attention on UFC 321 may drive high motivation. No travel or acclimation issues are reported.
  • Aliskerov looks to maintain momentum after a strong TKO win, aiming to climb rankings after rebounding from a loss to Whittaker. Park hopes to extend his winning streak and demonstrate resilience against a top contender, motivated by confidence from recent decision victories.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Ikram_Aliskerov: -250, Jun_Yong_Park: 205 Ikram Aliskerov to win ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Ikram_Aliskerov: -3.5 -135, Jun_Yong_Park: +3.5 100 Ikram Aliskerov to cover -3.5 rounds by early stoppage ★★★★☆ 74%
Over/under over: -125, under: -105 Under 2.5 rounds due to Aliskerov’s history of early finishes ★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Ikram Aliskerov -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 33%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 33% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 34.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Ikram Aliskerov is favored to win by first-round TKO due to his finishing ability, takedown control, and recent high-level performances. Park's durability will be tested early, and Aliskerov’s pressure and grappling prowess likely overwhelm him before the later rounds.

Predicted Score: Ikram Aliskerov wins by first-round TKO


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L'udovit Klein vs. Mateusz Rebecki Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: L'udovit Klein vs Mateusz Rebecki – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-25
  • Time: 4:55 PM UTC
  • Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi

Game Overview

The UFC 321 prelim lightweight bout features L'udovit Klein, a sharp outside striker with a strong UFC record, facing Mateusz Rebecki, a relentless pressure fighter with excellent grappling and durability. Klein (23-5-1, 7-3-1 UFC) brings calculated striking and youth advantage, while Rebecki (20-3, 4-2 UFC) is a fan-favorite known for his iron chin, heavy hands, and fight-of-the-night performances, though he carries wear and tear from recent wars and is slightly older.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Klein's recent UFC results show a solid record with effective outside striking tactics. Rebecki has had 1-1 in his last two fights but impressed with Fight of the Night honors in brutal bouts, showcasing resilience and grappling skill.
  • No direct prior fights between Klein and Rebecki; both fighters are top-level lightweights with contrasting styles likely to produce an exciting matchup.
  • No publicly reported injuries impacting either fighter ahead of UFC 321; however, Rebecki's recent heavy damage in fights may affect durability.
  • Fight taking place at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi could favor fighters accustomed to high-profile environments; Klein trains with strong partners and is noted for solid preparation.
  • Both fighters motivated to break out at UFC 321; Rebecki aims to avoid a first losing skid in his career and maintain his fan-favorite status; Klein seeks to demonstrate growth and capitalize on perceived durability and technical edge.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline L'udovit Klein: -130, Mateusz Rebecki: 110 L'udovit Klein to win ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread L'udovit Klein -3.5: 120, Mateusz Rebecki +3.5: -165 L'udovit Klein covers -3.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: -145, Under 2.5 rounds: 114 Over 2.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline L'udovit Klein -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 15%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

L'udovit Klein edges out Mateusz Rebecki by decision or late stoppage, leveraging superior striking precision and relative freshness, despite Rebecki's pressure and grappling threat. The fight likely turns into a tactical strike versus pressure war, with Klein's durability and outside game giving him a slight advantage.

Predicted Score: Klein wins by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)


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Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Matheus Camilo Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs Matheus Camilo – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-25
  • Time: 4:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi

Game Overview

The Lightweight division prelim bout between Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady and Matheus Camilo at UFC 321 features two fighters with UFC records of 0-1, both seeking their first promotional win. Both athletes suffered stoppage losses in their UFC debuts, with Al-Selwady getting knocked out in the third round and Camilo being submitted in the second round. This fight marks the return of Al-Selwady after a long layoff, while Camilo is a younger fighter with notable regional success and six finishes.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Al-Selwady has a record of 15-4 with a history of KO losses, indicating a vulnerability in striking defense. Camilo holds a 9-3 record with his three losses coming via submission, illustrating a ground game weakness. Both fighters showed weaknesses in their UFC debuts but possess finishing capabilities; Camilo with six finishes and Al-Selwady typically relying on striking power.
  • This is the first meeting between Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady and Matheus Camilo, so no direct head-to-head data exists.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter at the time of this bout. Al-Selwady had a long inactivity period likely due to opponents pulling out and possible undisclosed issues, but no confirmed injury was reported.
  • The fight takes place at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, which is a neutral venue with no apparent advantage to either fighter. Both fighters are relatively new to the UFC stage with limited promotion experience. The bout’s placement on prelims despite limited UFC success for both fighters suggests low pressure but high personal motivation.
  • Both fighters have strong incentives to secure their first UFC win to avoid an 0-2 promotional record. Al-Selwady is making a comeback after over a year on the shelf, which may add motivation to prove himself. Camilo, younger and still early in his UFC career, looks to rebound from a submission loss and demonstrate his finishing ability.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady: -102, Matheus Camilo: -118 Matheus Camilo win ★★★☆☆ 54%
Spread Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady +3.5: -155, Matheus Camilo -3.5: 115 Matheus Camilo by more than 3.5 rounds or decisive finish ★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under Over 1.5 rounds: -200, Under 1.5 rounds: 154 Over 1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Matheus Camilo -6%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 1.5 -3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the fighters' weaknesses and past fight outcomes, the fight is expected to be competitive but tends to slightly favor Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady due to his experience and striking power. However, Camilo’s youth and submission skills add unpredictability to the outcome.

Predicted Score: Matheus Camilo wins via submission or decision in round 2 or 3


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