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Darragh Kelly vs. Bakhtiyar Abdulaev Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Darragh Kelly vs Bakhtiyar Abdulaev – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-26
  • Time: 4:00 PM UTC
  • Location: PFL Europe 3, Nantes, France

Game Overview

Darragh Kelly, a heavily favored fighter with dominant recent performances in PFL Europe, goes up against underdog Bakhtiyar Abdulaev, who has shown potential but less consistent results at this level.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Darragh Kelly has demonstrated strong finishing skills and control in his last three fights, winning decisively without significant damage. Abdulaev has mixed recent form, with some solid wins but also questionable defense and endurance.
  • No previous meeting between Kelly and Abdulaev, so no direct comparison exists; analysis relies on stylistic matchups and recent performance trends.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the contest, indicating both are likely at peak physical condition.
  • The fight takes place on European soil in PFL Europe 3, with Kelly possibly having a slight home continent advantage and stronger fan support.
  • Kelly appears highly motivated to advance his standing in the PFL Europe lightweight division, whereas Abdulaev seems motivated but faces higher pressure as the clear underdog.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Kelly -650, Abdulaev +440 Kelly ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Kelly -1.5 rounds -300, Abdulaev +1.5 rounds +220 Kelly -1.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds -110, Under 2.5 rounds -110 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Darragh Kelly -10%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Darragh Kelly at -10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Darragh Kelly to win via moneyline

Predicted Score: Kelly wins by TKO in round 2


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Maria Guedez Jr vs. Kiya O'Sullivan Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Maria Guedez Jr vs Kiya O'Sullivan – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-26
  • Time: 4:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Le Zénith, Nantes, France

Game Overview

This women's strawweight bout at PFL Europe 3 features two debut fighters, Maria Guedez Jr and Kiya O'Sullivan, with no prior professional MMA records available. Both are untested in professional competition, making the match a test of raw talent and preparation.

Key Factors to Consider

  • No professional fight records or recent fighter form are available for either competitor, limiting statistical performance analysis.
  • No prior head-to-head bouts or related historical data exist between the two fighters.
  • No injury reports or physical setbacks have been disclosed for either fighter leading up to the bout.
  • The fight takes place in Nantes, France, providing a neutral venue with no clear home advantage. Both fighters presumably have equal acclimatization conditions.
  • Both debutants likely have high motivation to establish themselves in the PFL Europe competitive framework and secure future opportunities.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Kiya O'Sullivan: -200, Maria Guedez Jr: +160 Kiya O'Sullivan ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Kiya O'Sullivan -1.5: -110, Maria Guedez Jr +1.5: -110 Kiya O'Sullivan -1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: -120, Under 2.5 rounds: +100 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Kiya O'Sullivan -10%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Kiya O'Sullivan at -10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline: Kiya O'Sullivan to win

Predicted Score: Kiya O'Sullivan wins by decision or late stoppage within 3 rounds


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Claudio Pacella vs. Aleksandr Chizov Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Claudio Pacella vs Aleksandr Chizov – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-26
  • Time: 4:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Nantes, France

Game Overview

Aleksandr Chizov (-164) faces Claudio Pacella (+134) in a PFL Europe 3 lightweight bout, where Chizov opens as favorite due to more consistent recent performances and favorable odds movement.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Chizov has shown stronger recent form with multiple wins in PFL and professional bouts, whereas Pacella has a mixed record and fewer high-profile wins.
  • No recorded previous encounter between Claudio Pacella and Aleksandr Chizov, making direct matchup data unavailable.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the matchup.
  • Fight takes place in Nantes, France, a neutral venue for both, minimizing home advantage. Both fighters are competing in PFL Europe, indicating similar preparation levels.
  • Chizov's recent upward career trajectory in PFL Europe likely increases his motivation and confidence; Pacella has incentives but less momentum.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Chizov -164 / Pacella +134 Aleksandr Chizov ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Chizov -1.5 (+130), Pacella +1.5 (-150) Aleksandr Chizov -1.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds (-110), Under 2.5 rounds (-110) Under 2.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Aleksandr Chizov -3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Aleksandr Chizov at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Aleksandr Chizov to win by straight victory on the moneyline, with a decision inside the distance expected under 2.5 rounds.

Predicted Score: Aleksandr Chizov wins by decision or finish within 2 rounds


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Vincent del Guerra vs. Sofiane Aïssaoui Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Vincent del Guerra vs Sofiane Aïssaoui – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-26
  • Time: 4:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Zenith Nantes Metropole, Nantes, France

Game Overview

This middleweight MMA matchup pits veteran Vincent del Guerra (35, 32-22-1 record) against technically skilled Sofiane Aïssaoui (34, 11-6-0). Del Guerra has a greater volume of fights and experience but a negative win/loss ratio, while Aïssaoui shows a more balanced record and slightly longer reach.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Del Guerra has more fights but has lost significantly more; he tends to win by KO/TKO and submissions evenly. Aïssaoui has fewer fights but maintains a positive record with a strong submission game and decent knockout power. Recent form suggests both fighters remain active but no clear winning streak favors either.
  • No documented direct prior matchups or results exist between del Guerra and Aïssaoui.
  • No publicly available reports of injuries or weight-cutting issues for either fighter; both made weight successfully at the latest weigh-ins.
  • The bout takes place at PFL Europe 3 in Nantes, France, effectively a home advantage for French fighter del Guerra. The venue and event are high profile with live broadcast.
  • Del Guerra likely motivated to prove himself due to a losing record and home crowd. Aïssaoui, with a positive record and skill set, is motivated to establish dominance and capitalize on underdog status given the odds.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: -390, away: +310 Vincent del Guerra ★★★★☆ 71%
Spread home_spread_minus_1.5: -120, away_spread_plus_1.5: -110 Vincent del Guerra -1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under over_2.5_rounds: -108, under_2.5_rounds: -112 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Vincent del Guerra -7%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Vincent del Guerra at -7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Vincent del Guerra to win by moneyline given experience, home advantage, and current bookmaker support.

Predicted Score: Vincent del Guerra wins by KO/TKO in Round 2


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Connor Hughes vs. Gino van Steenis Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Connor Hughes vs Gino van Steenis – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-26
  • Time: 4:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Zenith Nantes Metropole, France

Game Overview

The lightweight bout at PFL Europe 3 features England's Connor Hughes (11-2) against Spain's Gino van Steenis (6-1). Hughes is known for his hard-hitting KO power and riding momentum from a recent devastating KO victory. Van Steenis presents a well-rounded skillset and is considered a tough opponent aiming to upset Hughes.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Connor Hughes has demonstrated significant striking power with recent KO wins, showing momentum and confidence. Gino van Steenis has an excellent record with only one loss and a balanced fighting style, but less recent knockout hype.
  • No recorded previous matchups between Hughes and van Steenis, making this a fresh contest with no direct past outcomes.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter leading into this fight, both are expected to compete at full health.
  • Fight takes place in France, neutral ground likely minimizing home advantage. Hughes fights with confidence from a recent knockout while van Steenis shows tactical composure as a technical striker.
  • Both fighters are motivated to advance in the PFL Europe lightweight tournament and secure momentum for the $100,000 purse and championship, but Hughes appears slightly more motivated based on recent striking success and crowd momentum.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Connor Hughes: -290, Gino van Steenis: 225 Connor Hughes ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Connor Hughes -1.5: -185, Gino van Steenis +1.5: 155 Connor Hughes -1.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 1.5 Rounds: -140, Under 1.5 Rounds: 110 Under 1.5 Rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Connor Hughes -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Connor Hughes at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Connor Hughes to win on the moneyline

Predicted Score: Connor Hughes wins by 2nd round KO


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Mantas Kondratavicius vs. Dani Barbir Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Mantas Kondratavicius vs Dani Barbir – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-24
  • Time: 1:55 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, USA

Game Overview

The main event at Dana White’s Contender Series Season 9 Week 7 features undefeated Croatian Dani Barbir (7-0) taking on Lithuanian Mantas Kondratavicius (7-1). Both middleweights are known for striking with finishing capabilities. Barbir has proven championship pedigree regionally but withdrew from a recent fight due to injury, raising minor concerns. Kondratavicius, meanwhile, is on a two-fight win streak and boasts a kickboxing background, giving him an edge in striking variety and clinch work. The fight is scheduled for three five-minute rounds.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Barbir is undefeated at 7-0 with a strong regional championship background, but has a recent withdrawal due to injury. Kondratavicius has a 7-1 record with four KOs and recently won two straight fights, including a quick stoppage in March 2025, highlighting his finishing ability and experience against durable opponents.
  • No prior head-to-head matchup between these fighters.
  • Barbir withdrew from a May 2025 bout against Piotr Strus due to injury, causing some question marks about his current physical state. Kondratavicius has no disclosed recent injuries and appears fight-ready.
  • The bout takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral site but a high-pressure environment with a UFC contract on the line, adding motivation. Barbir fights near home in Croatia regionally but is facing a distinctly higher level here.
  • Both fighters are highly motivated to secure a UFC contract. Barbir tries to maintain his perfect record and capitalize on his championship pedigree, while Kondratavicius aims to spoil the undefeated run and build his resume with a high-profile KO/TKO win.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Dani Barbir: -133, Mantas Kondratavicius: +113 Mantas Kondratavicius ★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread Mantas Kondratavicius -1.5: +250, Dani Barbir +1.5: -300 Mantas Kondratavicius -1.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 1.5 rounds: +157, Under 1.5 rounds: -180 Under 1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Dani Barbir 11%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 1.5 -11%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Dani Barbir at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mantas Kondratavicius to win by KO/TKO

Predicted Score: Mantas Kondratavicius wins via KO/TKO Round 1-2


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Brahyan Zurcher vs. Murtazali Magomedov Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Brahyan Zurcher vs Murtazali Magomedov – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-24
  • Time: 1:30 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, USA

Game Overview

Brahyan Zurcher and Murtazali Magomedov are two undefeated featherweight prospects meeting on Dana White's Contender Series. Both are 9-0 professionally, but bring contrasting skill sets: Zurcher is a technically polished striker with relentless pace, while Magomedov is a taller, aggressive grappler with strong submission finishing ability. The matchup features a clash between Zurcher's pressure and durability versus Magomedov's early submission threat and control.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Both fighters are undefeated; Zurcher has notable success in PFL with powerful striking and good grind-down skills. Magomedov holds a regional featherweight championship, demonstrating finishing ability especially via submissions and strikes inside the first two rounds.
  • No previous head-to-head matchup. Both fighters are undefeated, making this a high-stakes risk for both.
  • No reported recent injuries for either fighter. Zurcher had some canceled fights last year but no injuries mentioned. Both appear physically ready.
  • Fight held at UFC Apex with a live ESPN+ stream in the US and UFC Fight Pass internationally. The platform and exposure increase stakes for both.
  • Both fighters seek to secure UFC contracts and maintain unbeaten records. Magomedov may lean on his finishing skills early; Zurcher motivated to upset a submission specialist and prove UFC readiness.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Brahyan Zurcher: -140, Murtazali Magomedov: 120 Murtazali Magomedov ★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread Magomedov -1.5 rounds: -110, Zurcher +1.5 rounds: -110 Magomedov -1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under Over 1.5 rounds: -185, Under 1.5 rounds: 161 Under 1.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Murtazali Magomedov 17%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 1.5 83%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 83% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 51.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline pick for Murtazali Magomedov to win via early submission or TKO due to his finishing prowess and height/pace advantage. Spread pick favors Magomedov by -1.5 rounds given the likelihood of a finish inside the distance. Over/Under pick is Under 1.5 rounds because both have high finish rates and this fight is expected to end before or during the second round.

Predicted Score: Magomedov wins via submission or TKO Round 2


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Sofia Montenegro vs. Jeisla Chaves Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Sofia Montenegro vs Jeisla Chaves – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-24
  • Time: 1:05 AM UTC
  • Location: Dana White's Contender Series, Flyweight Division

Game Overview

Flyweight matchup between Sofia Montenegro (6-1) and Jeisla Chaves (5-0) on Dana White's Contender Series. Montenegro is slightly more experienced and tested against better opposition, while Chaves is undefeated but with less proven competition.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Montenegro has a record of 6-1 with wins by KO/TKO, submission, and decision; Chaves is 5-0 but against unproven opponents with no MMA wins, showing solid striking but unproven ground skills.
  • No prior encounters between the two fighters.
  • No publicly reported injuries for either fighter before the contest.
  • Montenegro trains at the UFC Performance Institute, suggesting better access to elite training resources; Chaves has a Muay Thai base but limited MMA experience.
  • Both are motivated to secure a UFC contract; Montenegro aims to leverage her broader skill set and experience to make a statement, while Chaves looks for a breakout performance despite less tested opposition.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Sofia Montenegro: -188, Jeisla Chaves: +163 Sofia Montenegro ★★★★☆ 74%
Spread Sofia Montenegro -1.5: -140, Jeisla Chaves +1.5: +120 Sofia Montenegro -1.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under Over 2.5: -145, Under 2.5: +125 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Sofia Montenegro -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 35%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 35% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sofia Montenegro to win by decision

Predicted Score: Sofia Montenegro wins by decision after 3 rounds


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Justice Torres vs. Javier Reyes Rugeles Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Justice Torres vs Javier Reyes Rugeles – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-24
  • Time: 12:40 AM UTC
  • Location: Dana White's Contender Series Week 7, 145 lbs Division

Game Overview

Justice Torres (12-3, 4-1 last 5) faces Javier Reyes Rugeles (21-5, 3-2 last 5) in a lightweight bout at Dana White's Contender Series. Torres is younger with a slight reach advantage, coming off better recent form. Reyes has greater career experience but recent performance has been inconsistent.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Justice Torres shows stronger recent form with a 4-1 record in his last five fights versus Javier Reyes's 3-2. Torres has a balanced finishing ability but more decision wins recently, while Reyes features more KO and submission finishes historically.
  • No direct previous head-to-head matchup recorded between Justice Torres and Javier Reyes Rugeles.
  • No recent or reported injuries affecting either fighter going into this matchup.
  • Multiple opponent changes for Torres might have disrupted preparation but does not seem to have reduced his readiness. Both fighters motivated by potential UFC contract opportunities.
  • Both athletes are highly motivated to impress on Contender Series for UFC contracts. Torres might have a slight edge due to more consistent recent success and youth advantage.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Javier Reyes Rugeles: -180, Justice Torres: +155 Javier Reyes Rugeles ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Javier Reyes Rugeles -1.5: -110, Justice Torres +1.5: -110 Javier Reyes Rugeles -1.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: -155, Under 2.5 rounds: +135 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Javier Reyes Rugeles -10%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 41%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 41% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline: Javier Reyes Rugeles; Spread: Reyes to win by decision; Over/Under: Under 2.5 rounds

Predicted Score: Javier Reyes Rugeles wins by decision in under 3 rounds


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Jair de Oliveira vs. Rafael Tobias Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Jair de Oliveira vs Rafael Tobias – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-24
  • Time: 12:15 AM UTC
  • Location: Dana White's Contender Series

Game Overview

The matchup features undefeated Jair de Oliveira (6-0) against the favored Rafael Tobias (13-1) in a men's light heavyweight bout. Tobias holds a significant experience advantage while Oliveira is young and untested at the top levels.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Jair de Oliveira is undefeated with 6 wins, showing rising potential but limited top-level experience. Rafael Tobias has 13 wins and 1 loss, demonstrating veteran experience and more fight time at competitive levels.
  • No prior head-to-head meetings between Oliveira and Tobias; this is their first encounter.
  • No publicly reported injuries to either fighter ahead of this matchup.
  • The fight takes place on Dana White's Contender Series, a high-profile stage providing significant exposure and motivation for both fighters to perform well.
  • Tobias is favored to further solidify his reputation and climb rankings, Oliveira motivated to maintain undefeated status and break through as a contender.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Jair_de_Oliveira: +325, Rafael_Tobias: -390 Rafael Tobias ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Rafael_Tobias_-1.5: -150, Jair_de_Oliveira_+1.5: +130 Rafael Tobias -1.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over_1.5: +207, Under_1.5: -250 Under 1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Rafael Tobias -10%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 1.5 -9%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Rafael Tobias wins by moneyline, covering the spread, with the fight going under 1.5 rounds

Predicted Score: Rafael Tobias wins by TKO in round 1


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