Match Analysis: Tomas Melis vs Jesus De Nazaret – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: April 26, 2025
• Time: 5:00 PM UTC
• Location: Palazzo Wanny, Florence, Italy

Game Overview

Light heavyweight bout between Tomas Melis and Jesus De Nazaret on the BKFC 73 Italy undercard. Limited public data available on fighter records and styles.

Key Factors to Consider

• No detailed performance metrics available. Melis's social media promotion suggests active preparation[5].
• First professional meeting between the fighters.
• No reported injuries pre-fight.
• BKFC's bare-knuckle format introduces unique variables: shorter rounds (2 minutes) and faster knockouts compared to traditional MMA.
• Undercard positioning increases urgency to impress for future bookings. Melis's Instagram activity indicates strong promotional effort[5].

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Melis -215 | De Nazaret +165	Melis moneyline	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Tomas Melis 80%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Tomas Melis at 80% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 48.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Tomas Melis by decision (medium confidence) – bookmakers' heavy favorite status aligns with potential unseen metrics like sparring footage, regional dominance, or stylistic advantages.

Predicted Score: No applicable score (BKFC victory by KO/TKO, doctor stoppage, or decision). Most likely path: Melis via late-round TKO cuts.

Match Analysis: Artur Szpilka vs Errol Zimmerman – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-26
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: PreZero Arena, Gliwice, Poland

Game Overview

This heavyweight matchup at KSW 105 features Artur Szpilka against Errol Zimmerman. Both fighters are looking to make a statement in the heavyweight division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both fighters have a relatively short MMA career, with Szpilka having a 3-1 record and Zimmerman holding a 1-1 record. Szpilka may have a slight advantage due to more experience.
• There is no previous head-to-head matchup between the two fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight is in Poland, which might slightly favor Szpilka due to home crowd support.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, as winning could significantly boost their careers.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Artur Szpilka: 130, Errol Zimmerman: -170	Errol Zimmerman	★★★☆☆ 55%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Errol Zimmerman -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Errol Zimmerman at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Based on the odds and experience, Szpilka may have a slight edge.

Predicted Score: Decision or early finish by Errol Zimmerman.

Match Analysis: Krzysztof Jotko vs Ion Surdu – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 26/04/2025
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Data unavailable

Game Overview

Middleweight clash between veteran Krzysztof Jotko (25-6-1) and OKTAGON WW champion Ion Surdu (16-6). Surdu shows KO dominance (11 KOs), while Jotko relies on decisions (14 wins) and holds a significant experience edge.

Key Factors to Consider

• Surdu: 11/16 wins by KO | Jotko: 14/25 wins by decision
• No direct H2H history per available records[1][3][5]
• No reported injuries in available data[2][4]
• Weight difference notable (Jotko last weighed 93kg vs Surdu's 78kg, though likely typo as both listed at ~185cm height[5])
• Surdu defending champion status vs Jotko's experience against higher-level competition

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Surdu -150 | Jotko +110	Jotko moneyline (+110)	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Ion Surdu 16%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Ion Surdu at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jotko by decision (55% confidence) – Superior technical striking and cardio likely to overcome Surdu's power in later rounds

Predicted Score: Jotko via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Match Analysis: Igor Michaliszyn vs Artur Szczepaniak – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-26
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: KSW 105, Gliwice, Poland

Game Overview

The bout between Igor Michaliszyn and Artur Szczepaniak is a main card Welterweight division fight at the KSW 105 event in Gliwice, Poland. Both fighters are Polish, with comparable height and reach, and are closely matched in skill and experience within the KSW promotion.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both fighters have demonstrated solid performances in their recent fights with aggressive striking and grappling skills. Michaliszyn has a slight edge in recent form with consistent finishes, whereas Szczepaniak is known for his technical striking and resilience.
• There is no recorded direct head-to-head match between Igor Michaliszyn and Artur Szczepaniak, making this encounter a fresh contest to establish superiority.
• No publicly available data indicates any current injuries or physical setbacks for either fighter leading into this match.
• The fight being held in Poland provides a home advantage for both fighters, potentially neutralizing crowd support but adding pressure due to local expectations.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to gain recognition within KSW's welterweight division, making the stakes high for career advancement and rankings.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Artur Szczepaniak: -105, Igor Michaliszyn: -135	Igor Michaliszyn	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Michaliszyn -1.5: -110, Szczepaniak +1.5: -110	Michaliszyn -1.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -115, Under 2.5 rounds: -105	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Igor Michaliszyn 1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Igor Michaliszyn at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Igor Michaliszyn’s slight recent form advantage and more favorable odds, he is predicted to win this closely contested fight. However, the match could be competitive and may end by decision or late stoppage.

Predicted Score: Michaliszyn wins by unanimous decision or late round TKO

Match Analysis: Dominik Humburger vs Samuel Kristofic – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 26 April 2025
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Not specified

Game Overview

The upcoming MMA match between Dominik Humburger and Samuel Kristofic will take place as the main event of OKTAGON 70. It is a Middleweight division fight scheduled for three rounds.

Key Factors to Consider

• Detailed performance metrics for both fighters are not provided, but Samuel Kristofic is favored in the moneyline odds, indicating he may have a stronger recent performance or overall record.
• There is no available head-to-head data between Dominik Humburger and Samuel Kristofic.
• No information about injuries affecting either fighter is available.
• Environmental factors such as venue could influence the match, but specific impacts are not detailed.
• Motivation for both fighters should be high as they compete in a significant main event.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Dominik Humburger: 105, Samuel Kristofic: -145	Samuel Kristofic	★★★★☆ 75%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Samuel Kristofic -12%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Samuel Kristofic at -12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Based on moneyline odds, Samuel Kristofic is likely to win this match.

Predicted Score: Samuel Kristofic is favored to win by decision or knockout.

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Match Analysis: Andrej Kalašnik vs Mate Kertesz – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 26/04/2025
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: OKTAGON MMA (exact venue unspecified)

Game Overview

Welterweight main card bout between Czech Republic's Andrej Kalašnik (height 188cm, reach 188cm) and Hungary's Máté Kertész (height 183cm, reach 183cm, record 15-8-0). Kertesz trains at BSK Crossfight Budapest.

Key Factors to Consider

• No historical performance data available for Kalašnik. Kertesz brings significant experience with 23 professional fights.
• First recorded meeting between fighters
• No injury reports available
• Standard Octagon MMA rules apply. No location-specific factors specified.
• Kertesz seeks to improve 15-8 record. Kalašnik's career status unclear from available data.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 100% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Kertesz by decision (55% confidence) due to experience edge, though limited data makes this speculative

Predicted Score: Decision – Kertesz via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Match Analysis: Vlasto Cepo vs Erhan Kartal – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-26
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Not specified (OKTAGON MMA event)

Game Overview

Main card fight at OKTAGON 70 featuring Vlasto Čepo (#7 ranked) against Erhan Kartal. Čepo has no recent fight data in available records, while Kartal shows mixed results with a technical KO loss in December 2023 and April 2023 victories.

Key Factors to Consider

• Insufficient recent performance data for Čepo. Kartal demonstrates KO capability but inconsistency, with his last recorded fight being a technical KO loss.
• No direct H2H history found between these fighters.
• No injury reports available.
• Event context suggests high stakes as part of OKTAGON 70 main card. Čepo holds ranking advantage (#7).
• Čepo likely seeks to defend/maintain ranking position; Kartal aims to rebound from recent loss.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Čepo -240 | Kartal +165	Vlasto Čepo (ML)	★★★☆☆ 68%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Vlasto Cepo 67%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Vlasto Cepo at 67% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 40.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Čepo by decision or late-round finish, supported by perceived skill advantage and ranking status. Kartal's KO power remains the primary threat.

Predicted Score: N/A (MMA decision prediction: Čepo via unanimous decision)

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Match Analysis: Marcin Krakowiak vs Adam Niedźwiedź – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-26
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Undisclosed

Game Overview

Marcin Krakowiak faces Adam Niedźwiedź in a middleweight division match at KSW 105. Both fighters have a strong background in MMA, with Krakowiak holding more wins via submission and Niedźwiedź having a higher number of submissions in his career.

Key Factors to Consider

• Krakowiak has 13 wins with 6 submissions and 5 KO/TKOs. Niedźwiedź has 9 wins with 8 submissions and 1 KO/TKO.
• No previous head-to-head data is available.
• No recent injury reports for either fighter.
• KSW typically offers a competitive environment, which can impact a fighter's performance based on past experiences.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to secure a win in the middleweight division.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 100% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Based on past performance, Niedźwiedź's higher number of submissions might give him an advantage if the fight goes to the ground. However, Krakowiak's diverse win methods could pose a challenge.

Predicted Score: No specific score can be predicted due to the nature of MMA.

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Match Analysis: Madars Fleminas vs Kacper Koziorzebski – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-26
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Gliwice, Poland

Game Overview

Madars Fleminas is facing Kacper Koziorzebski at KSW 105. Both fighters have a strong record in the MMA circuit.

Key Factors to Consider

• Madars Fleminas, aged 37, has 13 wins with 7 KO/TKO victories and 5 decisions in favor. Kacper Koziorzębski, aged 29, has 11 wins with 4 KO/TKO victories and 7 decisions in favor.
• This is the first match between the two fighters, so there is no head-to-head data.
• No recent injury reports available.
• Venue could favor Koziorzębski due to hometown support, but this is speculative without specific venue attendance data.
• Both fighters will be highly motivated given the profile of the event.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 100% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Madars Fleminas might have a slight edge based on his experience and stats.

Predicted Score: Judgment decision in favor of Madars Fleminas.

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Match Analysis: Radek Roušal vs Karol Kutyla – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-26
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: KV arena, Karlovy Vary

Game Overview

The upcoming match between Radek Roušal and Karol Kutyla at OKTAGON MMA is expected to be highly competitive, with both fighters looking to prove their skills in the featherweight division. The event promises excitement with both fighters motivated to win.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both fighters have diverse skill sets, but without specific stats on their past performances, it's difficult to predict. Generally, fighters with strong ground skills and conditioning have an edge.
• No prior head-to-head matches, so past performances against similar opponents could be key.
• No reported injuries for either fighter at this time.
• Home advantage might slightly favor Radek Roušal due to fan support.
• Both fighters are likely highly motivated, as winning in a prominent organization like OKTAGON can significantly boost their careers.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 100% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Radek Roušal might have a slight edge due to potential home advantage and fan support.

Predicted Score: No specific scoring system in MMA, but expect a closely contested fight.