Match Analysis: Lucas Gouveia vs Jean Sevalho – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Brasília, DF, Brasil
Game Overview
Flyweight bout at LFA 221 between undefeated Lucas Gouveia (6-0-0, Brazil) and Jean Sevalho (7-1-0, Brazil). Gouveia enters with a perfect record, while Sevalho’s lone loss came in his most recent fight. Both fighters are rising prospects, with Gouveia favored by oddsmakers but Sevalho possessing finishing ability across both striking and submissions.
Key Factors to Consider
- Gouveia is a well-rounded finisher with 2 KO/TKOs and 2 submissions in 6 wins. Sevalho is aggressive with 4 KO/TKOs and 3 submissions, but he has recently lost momentum after a loss. Both have consistently finished fights early; only 2 of Gouveia’s 6 wins have gone to decision, while Sevalho has no decisions on his record[1].
- No direct prior head-to-head available. Both are finishing specialists, but Gouveia has shown slightly more decision endurance. Sevalho’s most recent fight was a loss, while Gouveia remains unbeaten[1][6].
- No publicly reported injuries for either fighter.
- Fight takes place in Brazil, home country for both. Gouveia is older (28 vs 19) and slightly taller, but Sevalho has a longer reach[1]. No major external disruptions reported.
- Gouveia looks to maintain his unbeaten record and climb in the division. Sevalho seeks to rebound after his first career loss and prove he belongs among the division’s best.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Gouveia -130 | Sevalho +100 | Lucas Gouveia by decision or late finish. | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds -130 | Under 1.5 rounds +100 | Under 1.5 rounds: both fighters have histories of early stoppages, but Gouveia’s recent trend is to extend fights. Still, Sevalho’s aggression and power make the Under a reasonable value play. | ★★★☆☆ 50% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lucas Gouveia -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Expect a fast-paced, competitive fight with both fighters seeking early finishes. Gouveia is slightly favored due to his unblemished record and ability to go the distance if needed, but Sevalho’s finishing power and youth present a real upset threat. The outcome depends on who imposes their game plan—Gouveia’s calculated aggression and experience versus Sevalho’s explosive offense.
Predicted Score: Gouveia via Decision (Unanimous) or late Submission (Round 3), though a Sevalho KO in Rounds 1-2 is a live possibility.