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Joe Giannetti vs. Jose Ferreira Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Joe Giannetti vs Jose Ferreira – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-15
  • Time: 3:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Mashantucket, Connecticut, USA

Game Overview

The lightweight bout at LFA 222 features Joe Giannetti (17-7-1) versus Jose Ferreira (13-2-0, 1 NC). Giannetti is considered a larger lightweight with effective range, solid power, and a good submission game. Ferreira has a lower volume fighting style with questionable striking and takedown defense. Giannetti is favored given his more varied skill set and physical advantages.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Joe Giannetti has mixed recent results with losses primarily to wrestlers and pressure fighters, but his physical attributes and submission capabilities stand out. Jose Ferreira holds a strong record but lacks aggression and defensive robustness, particularly in striking and takedown defense.
  • No prior recorded head-to-head fights between Joe Giannetti and Jose Ferreira, so prediction relies heavily on comparative skill analysis and recent form.
  • No specific injury reports available for either fighter leading into the match.
  • Fight takes place in Mashantucket, Connecticut, potentially giving Giannetti a slight home advantage being American. The event is high profile within LFA, broadcast on UFC Fight Pass, increasing fighter motivation.
  • Giannetti appears motivated to secure this win to advance towards a UFC opportunity. Ferreira’s motivation is less clear, but as a highly ranked lightweight, he is likely motivated to maintain momentum.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Joe Giannetti: 120, Jose Ferreira: -160 Jose Ferreira favored by bookmakers due to minus odds, but expert analysis suggests Joe Giannetti has an edge. ★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread Joe Giannetti: +1.5, Jose Ferreira: -1.5 Betting spread slightly favors Jose Ferreira to win by clear margin due to odds but low confidence given expert insights on style matchups. ★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under over: 1.90, under: 1.90 Expecting a finish under 3 rounds due to Giannetti’s KO/TKO style and Ferreira’s vulnerable striking defense. ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Jose Ferreira 12%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jose Ferreira at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Joe Giannetti by KO/TKO is favored due to better physical attributes, submission skills, and perceived defensive advantages, despite some recent struggles with certain styles.

Predicted Score: Joe Giannetti wins by 2nd round KO/TKO


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Ednilson Santos vs. Scottie Stockman Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Ednilson Santos vs Scottie Stockman – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-14
  • Time: 3:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) Event, Venue not explicitly specified

Game Overview

This lightweight bout features Ednilson Santos (13-7-1) facing Scottie Stockman (12-6-0) at LFA 222. Santos has a slightly better record overall, with a history of finishing fights by KO/TKO and decisions. Stockman is known for heavy striking power with a high KO/TKO rate but lacks notable grappling skills. Both fighters bring aggressive styles, Santos with more submissions and diverse finishes, Stockman with overwhelming knockout power.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Ednilson Santos has 13 wins with a balanced finish distribution: 5 KOs, 1 submission, 5 decisions. Scottie Stockman has 12 wins but more KO/TKO finishes (10) and fewer decisions (1), indicating a more aggressive knockout-oriented style. Santos has shown better grappling with submissions compared to Stockman, who struggles with ground game.
  • No direct prior meeting record is documented, making this a first-time matchup between Santos and Stockman.
  • No reported injuries or weight issues for either fighter ahead of the bout; both are fighting at lightweight 155 lbs.
  • This event is part of LFA 222, held likely in the United States with broadcast on UFC Fight Pass, offering good exposure. No travel or environmental concerns have been noted.
  • Both fighters are experienced competitors likely motivated to move up the ranks in LFA, with Stockman seeking to compensate for his grappling gap and Santos aiming to leverage his well-rounded skillset to break into higher-level organizations.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Ednilson Santos: -170, Scottie Stockman: 130 Ednilson Santos ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Ednilson Santos -1.5 rounds: -110, Scottie Stockman +1.5 rounds: -110 Ednilson Santos -1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: -120, Under 2.5 rounds: 100 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Ednilson Santos 0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Ednilson Santos at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Ednilson Santos by submission or decision is slightly favored due to grappling advantage and more balanced finishing ability, but Stockman's knockout power makes it a competitive fight. Prediction confidence is moderate given both have risks in their styles.

Predicted Score: Ednilson Santos wins via submission or decision in 3 rounds


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Vincius Pires vs. Artem Belakh Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Vincius Pires vs Artem Belakh – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-14
  • Time: 1:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Foxwoods Resort Casino, Mashantucket, Connecticut, United States

Game Overview

The bantamweight world title bout at LFA 222 features champion Vinicius Pires (11-1), a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with a strong submission game and aggressive forward pressure, defending his title for the first time on U.S. soil against Artem Belakh (10-2), a Kazakh prospect with a balanced skill set, sharp boxing and high fight IQ making his LFA debut. Both fighters have high finish rates (Pires known for submissions, Belakh with 90% finishes), setting up a high-stakes clash between a proven champion and a hungry international challenger.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Vinicius Pires is on an 11-fight unbeaten streak and recently secured the LFA bantamweight title by submission. He is known for technical precision and constant pressure. Artem Belakh is a strong prospect with relentless pace, excellent boxing, grappling fundamentals, and high MMA fight IQ, coming off release from ONE Championship and looking to immediately claim the belt.
  • No prior head-to-head bouts are recorded between Pires and Belakh, making this their first meeting, adding unpredictability to the fight outcome.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter entering the bout from official weigh-in and latest reports.
  • The fight will take place at a neutral venue in Connecticut, with Pires fighting outside Brazil for the first time as champion. Both fighters have strong motivation to establish or maintain legacy in LFA. Broadcast worldwide on UFC Fight Pass introduces high exposure pressure.
  • Pires is motivated to defend his title and showcase his submission prowess globally; Belakh seeks to make a major impact early in his LFA career and redeem after ONE Championship release, pushing for a major upset.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Artem Belakh: 185, Vinicius Pires: -250 Vinicius Pires Not available
Over/under Over 2.5: 120, Under 2.5: -155 Under 2.5 rounds Not available

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Vincius Pires -98%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 -99%

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Vinicius Pires to win by decision with a confidence level of approximately 65%, leveraging superior cardio, submission threat, and championship experience. The fight is expected to lean toward a strategic striking and grappling contest with Pires’ endurance advantage critical over 5 rounds.

Predicted Score: Vinicius Pires wins by decision after 5 rounds


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Regivaldo Carvalho vs. Gustavo Pintos Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Regivaldo Carvalho vs Gustavo Pintos – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-15
  • Time: 12:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Foxwoods Resort Casino, Mashantucket, Connecticut, United States

Game Overview

The fight between Regivaldo Carvalho and Gustavo Pintos is a featherweight bout scheduled as part of the LFA 222 event on November 15, 2025. The match is set for 3 rounds at 145 lbs (66 kg) and will take place at Foxwoods Resort Casino. Carvalho, a 31-year-old Brazilian fighter, holds an 11-5 record with a balanced distribution of wins by KO, submission, and decision. Pintos, a 33-year-old Uruguayan fighter, is undefeated with a 9-0 record, known for a high KO rate and a winning streak.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Regivaldo Carvalho has 11 wins with a fairly even mix of 5 KO/TKOs, 5 submissions, and 1 decision, but has 5 losses, none by decision. Gustavo Pintos is undefeated at 9-0 with 7 KOs and 2 decisions; he has no losses, indicating strong recent performance and finishing ability.
  • There is no direct head-to-head history between the two fighters, but Pintos holds a perfect undefeated record compared to Carvalho’s 5 losses. Their style differences will be critical, with Carvalho’s submissions versus Pintos’ KO power.
  • No explicit injury reports are available for either fighter leading up to this match, suggesting both are entering the bout in full health.
  • The fight is part of a major LFA event at Foxwoods Resort Casino with live broadcast on UFC Fight Pass. Carvalho has had a break between fights which may negatively impact his fitness and competitive tone, while Pintos has momentum with a winning streak. Both made weight successfully at 146 lbs.
  • Pintos aims to extend his undefeated streak and leverage his KO power to dominate at featherweight. Carvalho seeks to rebound from his losses and showcase his versatile finishing skills, including submissions.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Gustavo_Pintos: -165, Regivaldo_Carvalho: 125 Gustavo Pintos to win ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Pintos: -1.5, Carvalho: +1.5 Gustavo Pintos -1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under over_1.5: 105, under_1.5: -135 Under 1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Gustavo Pintos -7%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 1.5 1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Gustavo Pintos is favored to win given his undefeated record, recent winning momentum, and odds advantages. His KO power and unblemished record suggest a high probability to finish the fight, though Carvalho’s experience and submission skills present a threat, especially if the fight goes beyond the first round.

Predicted Score: Gustavo Pintos wins by KO/TKO in Round 2


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Nathan Ghareeb vs. Josh Harvey Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Nathan Ghareeb vs Josh Harvey – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-15
  • Time: 12:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Foxwoods Resort Casino, Mashantucket, Connecticut, USA

Game Overview

Nathan Ghareeb faces Josh Harvey in a lightweight bout at LFA 222. Ghareeb, a top prospect with a 12-3 record, returns to LFA after previous appearances and is motivated to advance toward the UFC. Harvey, with an 8-3-1 record, is known for his toughness and has shown interest in this matchup, having previously requested the fight. The bout is set for three rounds and is expected to be a high-paced, technical clash with potential for finishes.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Nathan Ghareeb has been active and is coming off a series of wins, showing improved striking and grappling. He is working with his original striking coach and is focused on taking the next step in his career. Josh Harvey has a solid record but has faced tougher competition, including a recent draw. His style is aggressive, but he has shown vulnerability to high-volume attacks.
  • This is the first professional meeting between Ghareeb and Harvey. There is no prior head-to-head record, but both fighters have faced similar levels of competition in regional promotions.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter. Both passed the official weigh-in and are expected to be at full strength.
  • The fight takes place at Foxwoods Resort Casino, a neutral venue. The event is broadcast live on UFC Fight Pass, adding extra pressure and exposure for both fighters.
  • Ghareeb has expressed strong motivation, citing bad blood with Harvey and a desire to prove himself for a UFC contract. Harvey has also shown interest in the matchup, having requested it previously, indicating he is highly motivated to win.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Josh Harvey: 550, Nathan Ghareeb: -1000 Nathan Ghareeb Not available
Spread Josh Harvey: +1.5, Nathan Ghareeb: -1.5 Nathan Ghareeb -1.5 Not available
Over/under over: 1.5, under: 1.5 Over 1.5 Not available

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Nathan Ghareeb -2%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 1.5 38%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 38% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Nathan Ghareeb is favored to win this bout due to his superior record, recent form, and motivation. The fight is expected to be competitive, but Ghareeb's high-volume striking and grappling skills should give him the edge. A finish is possible, but a decision win is more likely.

Predicted Score: Nathan Ghareeb wins by decision, 3-0


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Aline Pereira vs. Nejra Repp Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Aline Pereira vs Nejra Repp – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-15
  • Time: 12:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Foxwoods Resort Casino, Mashantucket, Connecticut

Game Overview

Flyweight bout at LFA 222 between Aline Pereira and Nejra Repp. Pereira is making a return to MMA after competing in Karate Combat where she achieved a 3-0 record and won a title. Repp is an experienced MMA fighter with a 4-2 record and is known for powerful striking and having been involved in a 'Fight of the Year' contender recently. The bout takes place in a competitive legacy regional platform serving as a stepping stone to UFC.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Aline Pereira (1-2 MMA record) has strong striking pedigree, a Black Belt in kickboxing, and training support from UFC-level athletes like Tracy Cortez. However, she has limited pro MMA experience and a break from MMA competition may have affected her fight sharpness. Nejra Repp (4-2 MMA record) has more MMA experience, including LFA appearances, and recently won a notable fight by KO despite early adversity, indicating resilience and finishing ability.
  • No prior professional MMA bouts recorded between Aline Pereira and Nejra Repp.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter going into the match based on weigh-in and recent reports.
  • The fight is held at Foxwoods Resort Casino with live broadcast on UFC Fight Pass. Repp's recent fight and training camp indicate peak preparation. Pereira benefits from support of prominent MMA figures and her striking background but faces a challenge adapting back to MMA after a layoff.
  • Aline Pereira is motivated to prove herself in MMA and follow in the footsteps of her brother Alex Pereira to reach UFC. Nejra Repp is coming off a high-profile victory and is motivated to continue proving herself in the flyweight division, likely aiming for UFC positioning as well.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Aline Pereira: -185, Nejra Repp: 140 Nejra Repp to win ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Aline Pereira -1.5: Unavailable, Nejra Repp +1.5: Unavailable Nejra Repp by decision or finish ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: -190, Under 2.5 rounds: 145 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Aline Pereira 49%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 42%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Aline Pereira at 49% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 34.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Nejra Repp is favored to win due to greater MMA experience, recent momentum, and demonstrated fight-ending power. Pereira's striking skills and athleticism make her a threat but the break from MMA and less experience are significant disadvantages.

Predicted Score: Nejra Repp wins by KO or decision in Round 2


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Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Gabriel Bonfim vs Randy Brown – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-09
  • Time: 2:45 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Enterprise, Nevada, United States

Game Overview

The welterweight main event between Gabriel Bonfim and Randy Brown is set for UFC Fight Night at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Bonfim, riding a three-fight win streak including a split decision over former title challenger Stephen Thompson, faces Brown, who recently scored a second-round knockout against Nicolas Dalby. Both fighters are unranked in ESPN's MMA divisional rankings, but Brown holds a reach advantage and is considered a slight underdog on the moneyline. The bout is expected to be a striking-heavy contest, with Brown favored to win by knockout according to expert analysis.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Gabriel Bonfim is 18-1-0 with a three-fight win streak, most recently defeating Stephen Thompson by split decision. Randy Brown is 20-6-0, coming off a second-round knockout of Nicolas Dalby. Bonfim's only loss in his last four fights was a TKO to Dalby, while Brown has shown improved confidence and striking ability in recent outings.
  • Bonfim and Brown have not faced each other previously. However, Bonfim lost to Dalby, who Brown recently defeated, creating an indirect connection. Bonfim's loss to Dalby was by TKO, while Brown's win over Dalby was by knockout, suggesting Brown may have an edge in finishing ability.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter leading into this bout.
  • The fight takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral venue. Both fighters are in their prime, with Bonfim at 28 and Brown at 35. Brown has a 5.5-inch reach advantage (78" vs. 72.5"), which could play a significant role in the striking exchanges.
  • Bonfim is looking to continue his win streak and establish himself as a top contender, while Brown aims to capitalize on his recent momentum and secure a high-profile victory.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Gabriel Bonfim: -175, Randy Brown: 145 Randy Brown ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Gabriel Bonfim: -13.5, Randy Brown: 13.5 Randy Brown ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over: 2.5, Under: 2.5 Over ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Randy Brown 57%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Randy Brown at 57% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 39.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Randy Brown is predicted to win by knockout. Brown's reach advantage, improved confidence, and ability to stay in the pocket and throw from range give him a significant edge. Bonfim will need to close the distance to be effective, but this increases his risk of being knocked out. The fight is expected to be competitive, but Brown's striking and finishing ability are likely to prevail.

Predicted Score: Randy Brown wins by knockout in the second round


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Matt Schnell vs. Joseph Morales Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Matt Schnell vs Joseph Morales – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-08
  • Time: 2:15 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas

Game Overview

The flyweight matchup between Matt Schnell and Joseph Morales is set as the co-main event for UFC on ESPN 73 at UFC APEX in Las Vegas. Both fighters aim to improve their UFC rankings, with Schnell known for his grappling and speed, and Morales bringing a more pressure-oriented striking style.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Matt Schnell has demonstrated strong wrestling and submission skills with a solid record in flyweight competition, while Joseph Morales tends to rely on aggressive striking and cardiovascular endurance. Schnell's recent performances show tactical fighting with effective takedowns; Morales has shown resilience but can be susceptible on the ground.
  • Matt Schnell and Joseph Morales have no recorded previous fights against each other. This will be their first encounter, increasing uncertainty based on stylistic matchups.
  • No recent injuries reported for either fighter; both appear in full health heading into this bout.
  • Fighting at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas means both athletes compete on neutral ground without significant travel disadvantage. The event timing suits both fighters' preparation cycles. No notable external disruptions or conditions forecasted.
  • Both athletes are highly motivated to secure a win to advance their position in the competitive flyweight division. Schnell may have slight edge due to needing a victory after mixed recent results, while Morales also seeks momentum.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Joseph Morales: -395, Matt Schnell: 310 Matt Schnell to win ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Joseph Morales: -7.5 -135, Matt Schnell: +7.5 100 Joseph Morales by more than 7.5 rounds (method of scoring adjusted for MMA fight duration; here interpreted as a strong dominant win margin) ★★☆☆☆ 45%
Over/under Over: 1.5 -175, Under: 1.5 135 Under 1.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Joseph Morales 167%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 1.5 65%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Joseph Morales at 167% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 53.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Schnell’s stronger grappling and ground game advantage combined with Morales's pressure striking, the analysis favors Matt Schnell to edge out a decision or late-round finish. Morales is likely to push the pace but could be vulnerable on the mat.

Predicted Score: Matt Schnell wins by decision or submission in round 2 or 3


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Chris Padilla vs. Ismael Bonfim Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Chris Padilla vs Ismael Bonfim – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-08
  • Time: 1:15 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas

Game Overview

The lightweight bout between Chris Padilla and Ismael Bonfim at UFC Vegas 111 is a matchup featuring two fighters with contrasting styles and records. Chris Padilla (16-6) is known for his versatility and calm composure under pressure, aiming to capitalize on strategic advantages across striking, grappling, and submissions. Ismael Bonfim (20-5) has a strong striking base and durability, making him a consistent threat with experience against tough opponents. The fight is expected to test Padilla's adaptability against Bonfim's pressure and skill diversity.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Chris Padilla brings a balanced skillset with notable experience across multiple disciplines and a track record of effective fight IQ. Ismael Bonfim's recent performances show solid striking accuracy and takedown defense, with a slightly better win ratio and more fights at the elite level.
  • This appears to be their first meeting, with no direct previous encounters found. Therefore, their individual fight styles and recent opponents will heavily influence the fight dynamics.
  • No reported injuries or public concerns noted for either fighter leading up to this fight, indicating both are likely at full health and prepared.
  • The fight takes place at UFC APEX in Las Vegas, a venue familiar to both fighters. The November 8 date and time provide no significant external disruptions. Media interactions highlight Padilla's calm mindset and motivation to win decisively.
  • Chris Padilla has expressed strong confidence and a clear motivation to outfight Bonfim on all fronts, aiming for a future title run. Bonfim, having more wins and experience, is also motivated to reinforce his position as a top contender in the lightweight division.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Chris Padilla: +164, Ismael Bonfim: -198 Ismael Bonfim ★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread Chris Padilla: 3.5 (-135), Ismael Bonfim: -3.5 (100) Ismael Bonfim to cover -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 2.5: -125, Under 2.5: -105 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Ismael Bonfim -13%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Ismael Bonfim is slightly favored due to his better odds and recent form, but Chris Padilla's versatility and calm approach give him a solid chance to win, particularly if he controls the pace and capitalizes on strategic openings.

Predicted Score: Ismael Bonfim wins by decision or late stoppage in round 3 or 4


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Ricky Simon vs. Raoni Barcelos Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Ricky Simon vs Raoni Barcelos – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-09
  • Time: 12:45 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

Ricky Simon faces Raoni Barcelos in a bantamweight bout on the main card of UFC Vegas 111. Both fighters are experienced veterans at 135 lbs, with Simon holding a 22-6-0 record and Barcelos at 20-5-0. The fight is scheduled for three rounds and is expected to be a competitive matchup between two skilled strikers and grapplers. Simon is the betting favorite, with odds reflecting his recent momentum and strong grappling stats.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Ricky Simon averages 2.93 significant strikes per minute with a 44% accuracy rate, while Raoni Barcelos lands 4.87 significant strikes per minute at 52% accuracy. Simon absorbs 3.72 significant strikes per minute, compared to Barcelos at 4.40. Simon defends 61% of strikes, Barcelos 60%. Simon averages 5.01 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 43% completion rate, giving him a clear edge in grappling. Simon’s recent wins include a first-round knockout and a unanimous decision, while Barcelos has shown resilience but less finishing ability lately.
  • No previous fights between Simon and Barcelos. This will be their first meeting.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter as of the latest updates.
  • The fight takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral venue. Both fighters are accustomed to the environment. The event is broadcast on ESPN+, with no crowd influence due to the Apex setup.
  • Simon is looking to solidify his position in the rankings after a strong 2025, while Barcelos aims to rebound and climb back up the division. Both fighters have shown motivation in recent interviews and training camps.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Ricky Simon: -170, Raoni Barcelos: 142 Ricky Simon ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Ricky Simon: -3.5 120, Raoni Barcelos: 3.5 -165 Ricky Simon -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over: 2.5 -250, Under: 2.5 190 Under 2.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Ricky Simon -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 107%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 107% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 56.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Ricky Simon is favored due to his superior grappling, recent form, and defensive stats. Barcelos has a higher striking output but is less efficient defensively. Simon’s ability to control the fight on the ground and his higher takedown rate give him the edge. The odds and implied probabilities support Simon as the likely winner, but Barcelos remains dangerous on the feet.

Predicted Score: Ricky Simon wins by unanimous decision or late finish, likely going to the third round but not ending before it.


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