Match Analysis: Jaqueline Amorim vs Mizuki Inoue – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-25
- Time: 2:10 PM UTC
- Location: UFC 321 Arena (unspecified venue)
Game Overview
This lightweight MMA bout features Jaqueline Amorim, a strong, consistent fighter favored heavily (-425) over Mizuki Inoue (+330), who is returning after a three-year hiatus but won her recent comeback fight by unanimous decision.
Key Factors to Consider
- Amorim holds a 15-6 record with a balanced finishing ability (0 KOs, 9 subs, 6 decisions) and has been more active recently. Inoue returned with a win in September after a long layoff. Amorim's submission game and recent form edge the performance factor.
- No documented previous head-to-head fights between Amorim and Inoue as per available data.
- No publicly reported current injuries for either fighter leading into this bout.
- Fight location and other environmental factors do not disproportionately favor either fighter. Inoue's motivational comeback is notable but likely offset by Amorim's activity and form.
- Inoue seeks to re-establish her UFC standing after a long absence, while Amorim aims to maintain momentum and capitalize on favored status.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -425, away: 330 | Jaqueline Amorim | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | home: -165 (Amorim -7.5), away: 120 (Inoue +7.5) | Jaqueline Amorim -7.5 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | over: 105 (2.5 rounds), under: -135 (2.5 rounds) | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jaqueline Amorim -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jaqueline Amorim to win by submission
Predicted Score: Jaqueline Amorim wins by submission in Round 2