Match Analysis: New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: October 23, 2025
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces

Game Overview

This matchup features the Missouri State Bears and New Mexico State Aggies, both with a 3-3 record. It is a closely contested game with Missouri State favored by 1.5 points.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both teams have shown similar strengths, but New Mexico State has a strong defensive performance against the rush and a weaker offensive efficiency. Missouri State faces challenges in closing drives.
• No recent head-to-head data is available in the search results.
• Missouri State's WR Jmariyae Robinson is out due to suspension.
• The weather is expected to be favorable with no rain and a temperature of 76°F.
• Both teams are equally motivated to win, given their current standings.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-118 for Missouri State, +100 for New Mexico State	New Mexico State	★★★☆☆ 52%
Spread	-1.5 -110 for Missouri State, +1.5 -110 for New Mexico State	New Mexico State +1.5	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under	Over 51.5 -115, Under 51.5 -105	Under 51.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Missouri State Bears 2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 51.5 17%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 51.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Missouri State is favored but New Mexico State has a good chance given their defense.

Predicted Score: Missouri State 24, New Mexico State 23

Match Analysis: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Missouri State Bears – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-08
• Time: 11:30 PM UTC
• Location: Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, Tennessee

Game Overview

The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-4) host the Missouri State Bears (2-3) in a Conference USA matchup. Both teams are coming off losses, with Missouri State favored slightly on the road. The game is expected to be competitive with a moderately high-scoring projection around 50 points.

Key Factors to Consider

• Missouri State holds a slight edge with a 2-3 record and better passing offense and defense metrics. Middle Tennessee has struggled to perform with a 1-4 record, losing two in a row and 0-2 at home.
• Only one previous meeting in 1986, won by Middle Tennessee decisively (42-19), offering little recent relevance.
• No specific recent critical injuries reported for either team affecting core starters.
• Home crowd attendance may be lower than usual due to weeknight scheduling, reducing typical home field advantage for Middle Tennessee.
• Missouri State looks to stop a losing trend after a close loss to Western Kentucky; Middle Tennessee faces pressure after consecutive defeats and poor home form.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: +108, Missouri State Bears: -126	Missouri State Bears	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +2.5: -110, Missouri State Bears -2.5: -110	Missouri State Bears -2.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 49.5: -110, Under 49.5: -110	Over 49.5 points	★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Missouri State Bears 11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 49.5 9%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Missouri State Bears at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline: Missouri State Bears to win. Spread: Missouri State -2.5. Over/Under: Over 49.5 points.

Predicted Score: Missouri State Bears 27 – Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 23

Match Analysis: Missouri State Bears vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-27
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Robert W. Plaster Stadium

Game Overview

Missouri State Bears (2-2) host Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (3-1) in a key September college football matchup. Western Kentucky enters with a stronger record and better ATS stats this month, but Missouri State's home advantage and recent performances provide a competitive scenario.

Key Factors to Consider

• Western Kentucky has a 3-1 record showing strong offensive firepower, while Missouri State has been inconsistent at 2-2. WKU is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 September games, evidencing strong form against the spread.
• Recent head-to-head data is limited, but previous encounters show Western Kentucky generally outperforming Missouri State, often covering spreads and winning by multiple scores.
• No major injury reports currently affecting key starters for either team, suggesting both squads will be near full strength.
• Game played at Missouri State’s home stadium, offering Bears a home-field advantage. Weather and conditions expected to be neutral. No significant travel or scheduling issues.
• Both teams seeking momentum in early season; WKU aiming to maintain superior record and top conference positioning, Missouri State motivated to prove competitiveness at home after mixed results.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Missouri State Bears: +160, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: -192	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Missouri State Bears: +4.5 -112, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: -4.5 -108	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -4.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over: 61.5 -115, Under: 61.5 -105	Over 61.5	★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -13%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 61.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 61.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers to win straight up, cover the -4.5 spread, and the total points to go over 61.5.

Predicted Score: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 38 – Missouri State Bears 27

Match Analysis: Missouri State Bears vs UT Martin Skyhawks – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-20
• Time: 11:07 PM UTC
• Location: Robert W. Plaster Stadium, Springfield

Game Overview

Missouri State Bears (1-2) host UT Martin Skyhawks (0-3) in a matchup featuring two struggling teams early in the season. Missouri State is slight favorite at home with a strong public leaning, while UT Martin has struggled to find consistency.

Key Factors to Consider

• Missouri State is 1-2 overall but 2-1 against the spread recently, showing some ability to cover despite losses. UT Martin is 0-3, having been outscored heavily, with a 1-22 SU record in the last 23 games, indicating severe difficulties on both sides of the ball.
• Recent direct matchups data is sparse, but Missouri State has generally held an edge at home. The trends favor Missouri State winning outright and covering spreads in recent meetings.
• No significant injury reports publicly available that impact key positions for either team, implying relatively full rosters.
• Weather is expected to be mild at 78°F, with some rain and moderate wind, unlikely to drastically affect gameplay. Home crowd support and travel fatigue slightly favor Missouri State.
• Missouri State seeks to recover from a slow start and prove competitiveness in front of their home fans. UT Martin is looking to break a long losing skid and avoid an 0-4 hole early in the season, which could increase desperation but also impact execution.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Missouri State Bears: -580, UT Martin Skyhawks: +420	Missouri State Bears	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Missouri State Bears -13.5: -115, UT Martin Skyhawks +13.5: -105	Missouri State Bears -13.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 52.5: -110, Under 52.5: -110	Under 52.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Missouri State Bears -9%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 52.5 15%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 52.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Missouri State Bears to win on the moneyline and cover the -13.5 spread; game total to stay under 52.5 points

Predicted Score: Missouri State Bears 28 – UT Martin Skyhawks 12

Match Analysis: Missouri State Bears vs SMU Mustangs – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 7:30 PM UTC
• Location: Robert W. Plaster Stadium, Springfield, Missouri

Game Overview

The SMU Mustangs (1-1) visit the Missouri State Bears (1-1) with SMU as heavy favorites both on the moneyline and spread. SMU had a close 48-45 loss to Baylor recently, showing strong offensive firepower, while Missouri State eked out a narrow 21-20 win versus Marshall. The total points line is set high at 61.5, reflecting expectations of a high-scoring game.

Key Factors to Consider

• SMU has demonstrated explosive offense but a marginal defense, allowing 48 in their last game. Missouri State has shown resilience winning close games but lacks offensive consistency, averaging fewer yards per play than SMU. Both teams are 1-1, but SMU's offensive efficiency (yards per pass and rush) is superior.
• No prior head-to-head data available; first meeting.
• No significant injury reports available for either team.
• Game is played at Missouri State's home stadium, possibly providing modest home-field advantage for the Bears despite being underdogs.
• SMU looks to rebound from a high-scoring loss and assert conference strength; Missouri State aims to capitalize on home advantage and avoid blowout.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: +1300, away: -2800	SMU Mustangs	★★★★☆ 82%
Spread	home: +27.5 -105, away: -27.5 -115	Missouri State Bears +27.5	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	over: 61.5 -108, under: 61.5 -112	Over 61.5	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	SMU Mustangs -9%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 61.5 25%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 61.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Take SMU Mustangs moneyline for a strong expected value given overwhelming odds and expected dominance; expect a close contest with Missouri State covering the large spread; game total to go over due to both teams' offensive tendencies.

Predicted Score: SMU Mustangs 44, Missouri State Bears 21

Match Analysis: Marshall Thundering Herd vs Missouri State Bears – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: Joan C. Edwards Stadium

Game Overview

Season opener for both teams, Marshall Thundering Herd hosting Missouri State Bears. Both teams enter 0-1 in recent form, looking to start with momentum. Marshall has a home advantage and a slight statistical edge in recent projections.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both teams have yet to establish a strong form this season. Marshall is favored based on historical strength and home venue. No recent detailed stats but Marshall is generally stronger offensively.
• Limited recent meetings; no dominant head-to-head trend. Past predictions lean slightly towards Marshall winning by about 10 points.
• No significant injury reports available for either team as of now.
• Home field advantage heavily favors Marshall in this kickoff game. Weather and other conditions expected to be typical with no known impacts.
• Both teams motivated to start season strong. Marshall may have additional motivation as slight favorite and home team in front of local supporters.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Marshall Thundering Herd: -375, Missouri State Bears: 295	Marshall Thundering Herd	★★★★☆ 76%
Spread	Marshall Thundering Herd -10: -110, Missouri State Bears +10: -110	Marshall Thundering Herd -10	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 55.5: -110, Under 55.5: -110	Over 55.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Marshall Thundering Herd -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 55.5 15%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 55.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Marshall Thundering Herd to win outright with a confident cover of the 10-point spread, and expect a high scoring game going over the total line.

Predicted Score: Marshall Thundering Herd 34 – Missouri State Bears 23

Match Analysis: USC Trojans vs Missouri State Bears – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-30
• Time: 11:30 PM UTC
• Location: LA Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA

Game Overview

The USC Trojans, a traditional powerhouse, open their 2025 NCAA football season heavily favored against Missouri State Bears, who are making their FBS debut after moving from FCS. USC seeks a strong start under coach Lincoln Riley amid pressure to improve from a 7-6 finish last year, while Missouri State brings momentum from an 8-4 2024 but faces challenges stepping up in competition level.

Key Factors to Consider

• USC finished 7-6 in 2024 with momentum in offense led by QB Jayden Maiava who has adapted well to Riley’s system. Missouri State had an 8-4 record in 2024 in the tough Missouri Valley FCS conference but this is their first FBS season, expected to struggle against top-tier NCAA competition.
• No prior FBS-level matchups between USC and Missouri State as Missouri State just moved up this season.
• USC appears healthy with key starters like Jayden Maiava returning. Missouri State suffers a key offseason loss with the death of starting safety Todric McGee, impacting defensive depth and morale.
• Game at USC’s home venue, LA Memorial Coliseum, favors the Trojans. Missouri State’s move to FBS and Conference USA presents travel and adaptation challenges. Weather and other external conditions are standard for late August in Los Angeles.
• USC has strong motivation to start season commanding and prove doubters wrong under coach Riley. Missouri State motivated to prove competitive at FBS level but realistically expected to be overmatched.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	USC Trojans: -10000, Missouri State Bears: 2500	USC Trojans	★★★★★ 98%
Spread	USC Trojans: -35 -110, Missouri State Bears: +35 -113	USC Trojans -35	★★★★☆ 85%
Over/under	Over: 60 -110, Under: 60 -115	Under 60	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	USC Trojans -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 60 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 60 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

USC Trojans to cover the large spread and win decisively, with the total score going under given expected defensive dominance and conservative first game pacing.

Predicted Score: USC Trojans 42 – Missouri State Bears 7