Match Analysis: Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Alcorn State Braves – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field

Game Overview

Mississippi State Bulldogs, a strong 2-0 SEC team, host the Alcorn State Braves, an FCS side coming off a 0-2 start. The Bulldogs are overwhelming favorites and expected to dominate this mismatch.

Key Factors to Consider

• Mississippi State is undefeated and dominant both straight up and against the spread this season. Alcorn State is winless and has struggled on both sides of the ball in their first two games.
• There is limited recent head-to-head data due to divisional differences, but Mississippi State’s higher-tier competition and success strongly favor them.
• No significant injuries reported for Mississippi State impacting their depth or starters; Alcorn State has no major noted injuries either, but their roster depth remains inferior.
• Home field advantage for Mississippi State with a large crowd support expected at Davis Wade Stadium. Weather conditions are normal with no constraints.
• Mississippi State looks to maintain a perfect start against weaker competition, crucial for confidence and rankings. Alcorn State aims to avoid a winless start but faces a very low ceiling given talent gap.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Mississippi State -100000, Alcorn State +8000	Mississippi State	★★★★★ 98%
Spread	Mississippi State -39.5 (-110), Alcorn State +39.5 (-110)	Mississippi State -39.5	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 52.5 (-110), Under 52.5 (-110)	Over 52.5	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 52.5 15%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 52.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mississippi State to win convincingly covering the large spread

Predicted Score: Mississippi State 56 – Alcorn State 13

Match Analysis: Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Arizona State Sun Devils – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 11:30 PM UTC
• Location: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS

Game Overview

Mississippi State Bulldogs and Arizona State Sun Devils both enter 1-0, with Arizona State favored on the road by 6.5 points in this Week 2 SEC vs Pac-12 matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both teams started 1-0; Mississippi State defeated Southern Miss convincingly in the second half, showing improved run defense and efficient QB play. Arizona State handled an FCS opponent with a less dominant margin and had 12 penalties in their opener.
• This is only the second meeting; Arizona State won last season at home by 7 points. Mississippi State holds a strong track record against ranked teams and SEC opponents.
• No major injury concerns reported for either team impacting key players.
• Game played at Mississippi State's home stadium with moderate weather (80°F, 51% rain chance, 7 mph wind). Home environment favors Bulldogs.
• Mississippi State looks motivated to avenge last year's loss and defend home turf. Arizona State aims to assert Pac-12 strength but has struggled on SEC road trips historically.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: +200, away: -245	Mississippi State	★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread	home: +6.5 -110, away: -6.5 -110	Mississippi State +6.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	over: 58.5 -115, under: 58.5 -105	Under 58.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Arizona State Sun Devils 80%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 58.5 7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Arizona State Sun Devils at 80% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 40% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Take Mississippi State +6.5 spread cover due to home advantage, improved defense, and historical difficulty for Arizona State on SEC road games.

Predicted Score: Mississippi State 24 – Arizona State 27

Match Analysis: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs Mississippi State Bulldogs – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-30
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: M. M. Roberts Stadium, Hattiesburg, MS

Game Overview

Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-10 last season) visit Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (1-11 last season) in an in-state, rebuilding matchup at M. M. Roberts Stadium. Bulldogs open as strong favorites despite last year's struggles.

Key Factors to Consider

• Mississippi State struggled in 2024, averaging 25.8 points scored and allowing 34.1 points per game. Southern Miss averaged only 15.3 points and conceded 37.8 points per game last year. Both teams are under new or evolving coaching staffs and expected to improve, with Mississippi State favored by bookmakers.
• Limited recent data suggests Mississippi State has been stronger historically. The Bulldogs carry an implied win probability of about 85% according to analytic models, reflecting market confidence.
• No specific major injuries reported for either team leading into the opener, suggesting both have relatively full rosters for Week 1.
• Bulldogs are facing a Sun Belt opponent on the road in a matchup typically favorable to SEC teams. New coaches and roster changes for both teams add an element of uncertainty.
• Both programs seek turnaround starts after poor 2024 seasons. Mississippi State benefits from SEC recruiting and talent level advantages, while Southern Miss tries to leverage familiarity and home-field advantage.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-470	Mississippi State Bulldogs	★★★★☆ 84%
Spread	-105	Mississippi State Bulldogs -13.5	★★★★☆ 78%
Over/under	-108	Over 61.5	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Mississippi State Bulldogs 2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 61.5 25%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 61.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mississippi State Bulldogs to win straight up on moneyline, cover the 13.5 spread, and the total to go over 61.5 points.

Predicted Score: Mississippi State Bulldogs 38 – Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 24