Match Analysis: Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Arizona State Sun Devils – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
Game Overview
Mississippi State Bulldogs and Arizona State Sun Devils both enter 1-0, with Arizona State favored on the road by 6.5 points in this Week 2 SEC vs Pac-12 matchup.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both teams started 1-0; Mississippi State defeated Southern Miss convincingly in the second half, showing improved run defense and efficient QB play. Arizona State handled an FCS opponent with a less dominant margin and had 12 penalties in their opener.
- This is only the second meeting; Arizona State won last season at home by 7 points. Mississippi State holds a strong track record against ranked teams and SEC opponents.
- No major injury concerns reported for either team impacting key players.
- Game played at Mississippi State's home stadium with moderate weather (80°F, 51% rain chance, 7 mph wind). Home environment favors Bulldogs.
- Mississippi State looks motivated to avenge last year's loss and defend home turf. Arizona State aims to assert Pac-12 strength but has struggled on SEC road trips historically.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: +200, away: -245 | Mississippi State | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Spread | home: +6.5 -110, away: -6.5 -110 | Mississippi State +6.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | over: 58.5 -115, under: 58.5 -105 | Under 58.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arizona State Sun Devils 80% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 58.5 7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Arizona State Sun Devils at 80% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 40% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Take Mississippi State +6.5 spread cover due to home advantage, improved defense, and historical difficulty for Arizona State on SEC road games.
Predicted Score: Mississippi State 24 – Arizona State 27