Match Analysis: Ming Shi vs Bruna Brasil – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-22
- Time: 4:00 AM UTC
- Location: Shanghai, China (Road to UFC: Shanghai event)
Game Overview
The strawweight bout between Ming Shi and Bruna Brasil is the main event of the Road to UFC: Shanghai on August 22, 2025. Ming Shi enters on a five-fight winning streak across promotions and fights in her home country. Bruna Brasil is a UFC veteran with a 2-3 UFC record and recently switched training camps to Fighting Nerds.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ming Shi has momentum from a five-fight win streak. Bruna Brasil has faced higher-level competition but had mixed UFC results (2-3).
- No previous fights between Ming Shi and Bruna Brasil found, making this a fresh matchup without direct H2H data.
- No known recent injuries reported for either fighter; Ming Shi has not fought in nine months but this appears due to professional commitments, not injury.
- Ming Shi benefits from fighting in her home country of China which could provide crowd and comfort advantage. Bruna Brasil's camp change to Fighting Nerds might provide a recent boost in training quality.
- Ming motivated to continue her winning streak and establish UFC credibility; Bruna Brasil motivated to reverse UFC losing trend and prove her camp switch benefits her performance.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bruna Brasil: -280, Ming Shi: 185 | Bruna Brasil | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | Bruna Brasil -1.5 rounds: -150, Ming Shi +1.5 rounds: 130 | Bruna Brasil -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: 120, Under 2.5 rounds: -140 | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bruna Brasil -9% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Bruna Brasil at -9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline bet on Bruna Brasil at -280 offers the highest expected value based on technical upside, UFC experience, and training camp advantage despite home crowd for Ming Shi.
Predicted Score: Bruna Brasil wins by decision after 5 rounds