Match Analysis: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 12:38 AM UTC
- Location: Los Angeles Dodgers home stadium
Game Overview
Game 4 of the 2025 NLCS between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers is a pivotal potential close-out game, with the Dodgers leading the series 3-0. The Dodgers are strong at home and have dominated the Brewers this series by allowing only three runs so far. Milwaukee's recent offensive struggles and uncertainty in starting pitching contrast with Los Angeles' stable and confident rotation featuring Shohei Ohtani.
Key Factors to Consider
- Los Angeles Dodgers have been dominant in the postseason with an 8-1 record and strong pitching performances, including Ohtani's recent solid start. Milwaukee Brewers, despite a strong regular season (97-65), have struggled offensively in this series and remain uncertain about their starting pitcher for this game, possibly resorting to an opener strategy that previously backfired.
- Dodgers lead the current series 3-0. In their 149 games as favorites this season, Dodgers won 88 times and hold a 35-18 record when favored by -196 or more. Historically, Dodgers have had a slight edge and their pitching has stifled the Brewers’ offense this series.
- No specific key injuries reported for either team prior to the game. Milwaukee's uncertainty with starting pitching is a tactical concern rather than injury-related.
- The game is being played in Los Angeles, giving the Dodgers home-field advantage. The current motivation is high for the Dodgers to close the series, while the Brewers face pressure to avoid a sweep. Weather and other environmental conditions are not reported as an issue.
- Dodgers are highly motivated to complete the sweep and advance with momentum. Brewers are under pressure to stave off elimination, which may influence their strategic decisions and urgency.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Dodgers: -200, Milwaukee Brewers: 162 | Los Angeles Dodgers win | ★★★☆☆ 64% |
| Spread | Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 @ 109, Milwaukee Brewers: +1.5 @ -132 | Los Angeles Dodgers cover -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 8: -105, Under 8: -116 | Over 8 runs | ★★★☆☆ 54% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Dodgers -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 8 2% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 8 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Los Angeles Dodgers are favored to win, likely covering the -1.5 run spread, with a moderately high confidence due to pitching stability and postseason momentum. The total score is expected to stay around the 8-run line, with a slight lean towards the over given the offensive capabilities and past game run totals.
Predicted Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5 – Milwaukee Brewers 2