Match Analysis: Jean Matsumoto vs Miles Johns – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-09
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Game Overview
The UFC Featherweight matchup features Jean Matsumoto, a 25-year-old Brazilian fighter with a 16-1 record, fighting orthodox stance and known for high volume striking but weaker defense. He faces Miles Johns, a 31-year-old American with a 15-3 record, also orthodox, who is more precise and defensively sound. Both fighters weigh 135 lbs and have similar height and reach, making it a competitive bout where striking accuracy and defense will be key.
Key Factors to Consider
- Matsumoto boasts a higher output rate of significant strikes at 5.18/min compared to Johns' 3.16/min but with less accuracy (41% vs 44%). Johns excels at defense, allowing only 2.65 significant strikes/min with a 67% defense rate, whereas Matsumoto allows 5.40/min with 45% defense.
- No previous fight history between them; this is their first encounter, making adaptability during the fight a factor.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the matchup.
- Fight held at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, neutral location with no home advantage; both fighters seem motivated by career progression at this main card event.
- Matsumoto aims to maintain his near-perfect record and prove striking dominance; Johns wants to leverage his experience and defensive skills to upset the younger fighter.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jean Matsumoto: -298, Miles Johns: 240 | Jean Matsumoto | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Jean Matsumoto -3.5: -115, Miles Johns +3.5: -115 | Jean Matsumoto -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -298, Under 2.5: 220 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jean Matsumoto -8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 92% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 92% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 41.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jean Matsumoto to win by decision, leveraging his striking volume advantage and physical prime despite defensive deficits.
Predicted Score: Jean Matsumoto wins by unanimous decision after three rounds