Match Analysis: Miles Johns vs Daniel Marcos – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-08
• Time: 9:45 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

Miles Johns faces Daniel Marcos in a bantamweight bout at UFC Vegas 111. Marcos is the betting favorite, with superior striking volume and accuracy, while Johns brings strong wrestling and physical power. The fight is expected to be a stand-up battle with both fighters capable of finishing.

Key Factors to Consider

• Daniel Marcos lands 5.11 significant strikes per minute at 53% accuracy, compared to Johns' 3.38 at 44%. Marcos also has a higher finish rate and more recent momentum, while Johns has shown vulnerability in striking exchanges.
• No prior H2H matchup exists between the two fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral venue with no crowd advantage. Both fighters are in their prime and have prepared for a high-paced bout.
• Marcos is coming off a loss and will be highly motivated to rebound, while Johns seeks to reestablish himself after a narrow defeat. Both fighters have strong incentives to perform.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Daniel Marcos: -198, Miles Johns: 164	Daniel Marcos	★★★★☆ 74%
Spread	Daniel Marcos: -3.5, Miles Johns: 3.5	Daniel Marcos -3.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over: 2.5, Under: 2.5	Over 2.5	★★★★☆ 78%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Daniel Marcos -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -0%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Daniel Marcos wins by decision in a competitive, high-volume striking battle that goes the distance.

Predicted Score: Daniel Marcos wins by unanimous decision, 29-28, 29-28, 29-28

Match Analysis: Jean Matsumoto vs Miles Johns – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-09
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

The UFC Featherweight matchup features Jean Matsumoto, a 25-year-old Brazilian fighter with a 16-1 record, fighting orthodox stance and known for high volume striking but weaker defense. He faces Miles Johns, a 31-year-old American with a 15-3 record, also orthodox, who is more precise and defensively sound. Both fighters weigh 135 lbs and have similar height and reach, making it a competitive bout where striking accuracy and defense will be key.

Key Factors to Consider

• Matsumoto boasts a higher output rate of significant strikes at 5.18/min compared to Johns' 3.16/min but with less accuracy (41% vs 44%). Johns excels at defense, allowing only 2.65 significant strikes/min with a 67% defense rate, whereas Matsumoto allows 5.40/min with 45% defense.
• No previous fight history between them; this is their first encounter, making adaptability during the fight a factor.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the matchup.
• Fight held at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, neutral location with no home advantage; both fighters seem motivated by career progression at this main card event.
• Matsumoto aims to maintain his near-perfect record and prove striking dominance; Johns wants to leverage his experience and defensive skills to upset the younger fighter.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jean Matsumoto: -298, Miles Johns: 240	Jean Matsumoto	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Jean Matsumoto -3.5: -115, Miles Johns +3.5: -115	Jean Matsumoto -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -298, Under 2.5: 220	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jean Matsumoto -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 92%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 92% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 41.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jean Matsumoto to win by decision, leveraging his striking volume advantage and physical prime despite defensive deficits.

Predicted Score: Jean Matsumoto wins by unanimous decision after three rounds