Match Analysis: Alexei Pergande vs Mike Bardsley – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-12
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Nashville Municipal Auditorium, Nashville, Tennessee, United States
Game Overview
This PFL prelims bout features undefeated Alexei Pergande (5-0) vs. Mike Bardsley (5-1) in the featherweight division. The fight is part of the 2025 PFL World Tournament 5: Semifinals event. Pergande is a rising local talent, while Bardsley brings a strong but less formidable record.
Key Factors to Consider
- Alexei Pergande is undefeated at 5-0, showing strong early-career momentum and finishing ability. Mike Bardsley is 5-1, with his only loss likely coming against quality opposition. Pergande has a noticeable height and reach advantage (183 cm vs. 170 cm for Bardsley).
- No previous match history between Pergande and Bardsley.
- No reported injuries for either fighter as of fight week.
- Pergande is fighting close to home (Tennessee), which may provide a slight edge in crowd support. The bout is a prelim, so high stakes for both fighters to impress.
- High motivation for both fighters, but especially for Pergande as an undefeated local prospect seeking to boost his profile in PFL.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alexei Pergande: -701, Mike Bardsley: 501 | Alexei Pergande | ★★★★☆ 85% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alexei Pergande 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Alexei Pergande at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Alexei Pergande is favored to win based on undefeated record, physical advantages, and home crowd presence. Bardsley is an underdog with upset potential, but Pergande is the more likely victor.
Predicted Score: Pergande by unanimous decision or late-round finish (most likely: Pergande by decision, confidence >80%)