Match Analysis: Michigan State Spartans vs Youngstown St Penguins – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 7:30 PM UTC
• Location: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan

Game Overview

The Michigan State Spartans host the Youngstown State Penguins on September 13, 2025, at Spartan Stadium. Both teams enter the game undefeated at 2-0. Michigan State, ranked and an FBS team, has dominated previous meetings with Youngstown State, an FCS program, by large margins. Youngstown State is known for a strong rushing attack led by B. Brungard, while Michigan State's offense features QB Aidan Chiles' prolific passing. The Spartans have shown competitive offense in their first two games with a win over Boston College and Western Michigan. The game marks Michigan State's final nonconference contest before entering tougher Big Ten matchups.

Key Factors to Consider

• Michigan State is 2-0 with a balanced offense and aggressive play-calling, including a strong passing attack with Aidan Chiles (386 yards, 5 TDs vs YSU) and a credible rushing game. Youngstown State is 2-0 as well, powered by B. Brungard's rushing yards (409 yards, 6 TDs in recent game) and dual-threat capability but may face challenges against a superior FBS defense.
• Michigan State holds a perfect 3-0 record against Youngstown State with recent dominant victories: 42-14 (2021), 55-17 (2013), and 28-6 (2011), consistently winning by wide margins in this matchup.
• No significant injury reports impacting starters for either Michigan State or Youngstown State have been noted for this game at this time.
• The game is played at Michigan State's home venue in East Lansing, giving the Spartans home-field advantage. The event coincides with Agriculture Day and includes full-service tailgating, enhancing home excitement and fan presence. TV coverage is on BTN with streaming available on FOXSports.com.
• Michigan State aims to solidify confidence before entering the tougher Big Ten schedule and maintain momentum at 3-0. Youngstown State looks to prove competitiveness against a Power Five team to build early season credibility.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Michigan State Spartans: -2500, Youngstown St Penguins: 1100	Michigan State Spartans to win	★★★★★ 95%
Spread	Michigan State Spartans: -23.5 -110, Youngstown St Penguins: 23.5 -110	Michigan State Spartans to cover -23.5 spread	★★★★★ 90%
Over/under	over: 52.5 -110, under: 52.5 -110	Over 52.5 points	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Michigan State Spartans -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 52.5 34%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 52.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Michigan State is heavily favored to win given superior talent, coaching, recent dominance in the series, and home advantage. The Spartans are expected to cover the large spread and produce a high-scoring game given offensive strengths on both sides.

Predicted Score: Michigan State Spartans 45 – Youngstown St Penguins 17

Match Analysis: Michigan State Spartans vs Boston College Eagles – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 11:30 PM UTC
• Location: Michigan State Spartans Home Stadium, East Lansing

Game Overview

The 2025 season opener pits the Michigan State Spartans against the Boston College Eagles. Both teams start 1-0, showing early season form with balanced offensive and defensive performances. Boston College's quarterback D. Lonergan boasts strong passing stats, while Michigan State's offense features a solid rushing attack led by M. Frazier. This game represents a competitive rematch with Boston College having won last year's encounter in a closely contested match.

Key Factors to Consider

• Michigan State has excelled in September home games, winning the last nine as favorites and covering the spread in four of five recent favorable September matchups. Boston College struggles on the road in September, with four losses in five and failing to cover the spread in 10 of their last 11 non-ranked team games. Michigan State relies on a balanced attack with effective rushing and passing, while Boston College leans on high passing output and solid receivers.
• Last season's matchup was a narrow victory for Boston College, known as the Red Bandana instant classic. Historically, Michigan State has momentum at home and in September, but Boston College has managed to win recent critical matchups, making the rivalry competitive.
• No significant injury reports available for either team. Both squads appear to have their key starters active and ready for the game.
• Michigan State enjoys home-field advantage which historically favors them in this time of year. Weather and conditions are expected to be typical for early September in East Lansing, with no major adverse effects forecasted. Motivation is high on both sides given the early season and rivalry stakes.
• Michigan State aims to continue their strong September home game performance and start the season 2-0 with confidence. Boston College is motivated to defend their previous win and prove their strength on the road despite recent struggles in September games away from home.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Michigan State Spartans: -185, Boston College Eagles: 154	Michigan State Spartans	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Michigan State Spartans: -4.5 -112, Boston College Eagles: +4.5 -108	Michigan State Spartans to cover -4.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 45.5: -110, Under 45.5: -110	Over 45.5 points	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Michigan State Spartans -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 45.5 9%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 45.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Michigan State is favored to win by a moderate margin due to home advantage and recent trends in September performance, although Boston College has upset in them in prior close encounters. Expect a competitive but slightly controlled game by Michigan State.

Predicted Score: Michigan State Spartans 28 – Boston College Eagles 21

Match Analysis: Michigan State Spartans vs Western Michigan Broncos – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-29
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan

Game Overview

The Michigan State Spartans host the Western Michigan Broncos in a 2025 college football season opener. Michigan State, coming off a 5-7 2024 season and looking to improve under second-year head coach Jonathan Smith, are heavy favorites at home. Western Michigan, led by third-year coach Lance Taylor, aims to improve its defense after a 6-7 season. The total points line is set at 49.5, with Michigan State favored by 20.5 points on the spread.

Key Factors to Consider

• Michigan State scored 19.3 points per game and allowed 26.1 last year, struggling with turnovers and red zone execution but returning experienced QB Aidan Chiles who must improve to help the team. Western Michigan averaged 28.9 points but conceded 31.3, ranking poorly in defense and planning to utilize a two-quarterback system for this game, indicating a developmental approach.
• Michigan State has dominated recent matchups including a 35-13 win in 2022 and 51-17 in 2019. Historically, Michigan State covers the spread in these matchups and has strong home advantage at Spartan Stadium. Western Michigan has not been very competitive in these encounters.
• No major injury reports available for either team as of current information, allowing both teams to field expected starting lineups.
• The game is a season opener reducing rhythm bias but Michigan State’s home crowd and stadium atmosphere strongly favor the Spartans. Western Michigan treating this game partly as a test for their quarterbacks may limit their competitive edge.
• Michigan State aims to start the season strong and correct last year’s failings, while Western Michigan appears motivated to improve defensively but the dual-QB approach suggests a focus on development rather than an upset win.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Michigan State Spartans: -1600, Western Michigan Broncos: +900	Michigan State Spartans win	★★★★★ 90%
Spread	Michigan State Spartans -20.5: -112, Western Michigan Broncos +20.5: -108	Michigan State covers the -20.5 spread	★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under	Over 49.5: -112, Under 49.5: -108	Under 49.5 total points	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Michigan State Spartans -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 49.5 25%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Michigan State is strongly favored to win comfortably, likely covering the 20.5 point spread. The game is expected to be lower scoring than typical given Michigan State’s moderate offense and Western Michigan’s defensive weaknesses, but the total may go under 49.5 due to conservative game plans and early-season factors.

Predicted Score: Michigan State Spartans 28 – Western Michigan Broncos 7

Top EV Parlay for American Football – August 29, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
San Jose State Spartans vs. Central Michigan Chippewas Prediction	San Jose State Spartans	-465	269%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Western Illinois Leathernecks Prediction	Over 63.5	-110	34%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Western Michigan Broncos Prediction	Under 49.5	-108	25%

Combined Odds: +347 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $89.35