Match Analysis: Michel Pereira vs Kyle Daukaus – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-23
- Time: 8:25 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Fight Night 257 (venue not specified)
Game Overview
Michel Pereira and Kyle Daukaus face off in a middleweight bout with contrasting styles. Pereira is known for his dynamic and striking-heavy approach, while Daukaus relies on grappling and submissions. This matchup will test Pereira's striking defense and grappling against Daukaus' ground game and fighting control.
Key Factors to Consider
- Pereira holds a record of 31-13-0 with 11 KO wins and 9 submissions; he lands 4.5 significant strikes per minute with 52% accuracy but absorbs 4.33 strikes per minute. Daukaus stands at 15-4-0 with 1 no contest, has a lower striking rate of 3.22 per minute with the same 52% accuracy but better strike defense at 2.94 absorbed per minute. Daukaus averages more takedowns (2.12) than Pereira (1.14) but with lower accuracy. Daukaus also has a higher submission average (1.9 per 15 min) compared to Pereira's 0.7.
- No previous fights between Michel Pereira and Kyle Daukaus; 0% history and no wins or draws between them.
- No reported injuries or external issues affecting either fighter leading into the match.
- Pereira has an orthodox stance versus Daukaus’ southpaw, possibly influencing striking dynamics. Daukaus recently replaced Marco Tulio, suggesting possible adjustment time. Both fighters recently experienced losses, adding unpredictability.
- Both fighters are motivated by the need to rebound from recent losses and improve UFC rankings. Pereira’s dynamic flair versus Daukaus’ grappling credentials sets a competitive motivation for dominance in their respective specialties.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Michel Pereira: -260, Kyle Daukaus: 220 | Michel Pereira | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5: -185, Under 1.5: 155 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Michel Pereira -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 53% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 53% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 34.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Michel Pereira is favored due to superior striking volume and accuracy, coupled with decent takedown defense, despite Daukaus’ grappling prowess. The prediction favors Pereira winning by decision or late stoppage with an emphasis on striking control.
Predicted Score: Michel Pereira wins by decision or TKO in round 2 or 3