Match Analysis: Herbeth Sousa vs Michel Lima – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-12
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: LFA 212
Game Overview
Herbeth Sousa enters as the strong favorite against Michel Lima in this Bantamweight matchup at LFA 212. The fight is scheduled for 3 rounds with both fighters making the 135 lbs weight limit.
Key Factors to Consider
- Sousa has demonstrated consistent recent form and is favored by bookmakers with a strong 69% implied win probability. Lima is seen as an underdog but has the potential for an upset.
- No direct H2H data available, but betting lines strongly favor Sousa, indicating superior perceived skill or record.
- No current injury reports affecting either fighter, suggesting both are at full health for this contest.
- No notable external influences such as venue bias or travel fatigue reported; the fight is in a neutral environment.
- Sousa likely motivated to maintain dominance as favorite; Lima motivated as underdog to prove upset potential.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sousa -280, Lima +200 | Sousa | ★★★★☆ 74% |
| Spread | Sousa -1.5 rounds -150, Lima +1.5 rounds +130 | Sousa -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds -110, Under 2.5 rounds -110 | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 100% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Herbeth Sousa to win by decision
Predicted Score: Sousa wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds