Match Analysis: Michael Pagani vs Tim Wilde – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-28
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: BEC Arena, Manchester, Greater Manchester, England
Game Overview
The upcoming MMA match features Michael Pagani facing Tim Wilde at the BEC Arena in Manchester on June 28, 2025. This catchweight bout at 165 lbs is a main card fight at Cage Warriors 191. Both fighters enter with strong motivations with Pagani as a surging prospect and Wilde returning for a high-profile matchup. The fight is highly anticipated locally and has garnered significant attention from Cage Warriors fans.
Key Factors to Consider
- Michael Pagani is considered a rising prospect with recent momentum in his favor, while Tim Wilde has solid experience and is known for his technical striking and fight IQ. Both fighters have demonstrated resilience and adaptability in their previous bouts, making this matchup closely contested.
- No detailed historic head-to-head match statistics are available between Pagani and Wilde, suggesting this may be their first encounter at a professional level, which adds an element of unpredictability to the fight outcome.
- No current injury reports or handicaps were reported for either fighter leading up to the bout, indicating both are expected to compete at full capacity.
- The fight takes place in Manchester, which may provide a slight home advantage psychologically to Tim Wilde, who is from the Greater Manchester area. Pagani, though younger and on the rise, is fighting away from his home region.
- Michael Pagani is motivated to prove himself as a top prospect within Cage Warriors, seeking to advance his career with a notable win. Tim Wilde is motivated to leverage his experience and local support to secure a victory on home turf.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Michael Pagani: -130, Tim Wilde: -110 | Tim Wilde | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Spread | Pagani -1.5: +150, Wilde +1.5: -170 | Wilde +1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 Rounds: -120, Under 2.5 Rounds: +100 | Over 2.5 Rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Michael Pagani 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Michael Pagani at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Considering the live odds and both fighters’ profiles, Tim Wilde holds a slight edge due to home advantage and a more balanced moneyline at -110 vs. Pagani's -130. However, Pagani’s momentum and prospect status imply significant upset potential. The prediction favors a tightly contested bout with Tim Wilde narrowly winning by decision or late stoppage.
Predicted Score: Wilde wins by decision (3 rounds)