Match Analysis: Michael Morales vs Sean Brady – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-15
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York, United States

Game Overview

This is a high-stakes Welterweight main card bout at UFC 322, pitting undefeated striker Michael Morales against dominant grappler Sean Brady. Morales brings explosive power and reach, while Brady is known for relentless grappling and submission prowess. The fight is expected to be a clash of styles, with Morales favored by some analysts to win by early stoppage.

Key Factors to Consider

• Michael Morales is undefeated with first-round knockouts over veterans Gilbert Burns and Neil Magny, showcasing elite striking and physical strength. Sean Brady has won three straight, including a submission over former champion Leon Edwards, but has faced more grapplers recently.
• No prior H2H matchup exists between Morales and Brady.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight takes place at Madison Square Garden, a high-profile venue, which may increase pressure and motivation for both fighters.
• Morales is looking to solidify his status as a top contender, while Brady aims to rebound from recent losses to strong grapplers and prove his versatility.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Michael Morales 112, Sean Brady -133	Michael Morales	★★★★☆ 74%
Spread	Michael Morales 3.5 -170, Sean Brady -3.5 130	Michael Morales 3.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 2.5 -175, Under 2.5 135	Over 2.5	★★★★☆ 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Michael Morales 23%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Michael Morales at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Michael Morales by 2nd Round TKO

Predicted Score: Michael Morales wins by TKO in Round 2

Match Analysis: Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: May 17, 2025
• Time: 1:45 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Enterprise, Nevada

Game Overview

Gilbert Burns faces off against Michael Morales in a crucial welterweight bout. Burns, a former UFC title challenger, is on a three-fight losing streak and seeks to revive his career. Morales, undefeated in the UFC, looks to extend his winning streak.

Key Factors to Consider

• Burns has struggled with recent losses, while Morales has shown impressive performances, including a knockout win over Neil Magny. Burns' grappling skills are a significant advantage, but Morales' reach and recent momentum could be challenging for him.
• This is their first meeting, with Burns having more experience but Morales being younger and more aggressive.
• No recent injuries reported for either fighter.
• The event takes place in a neutral venue, but Burns' experience might give him an edge in handling pressure.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Burns seeking to break his losing streak and Morales aiming to solidify his position in the division.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Gilbert Burns: 575, Michael Morales: -850	Michael Morales	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Gilbert Burns +5.5: 250, Michael Morales -5.5: -370	Michael Morales	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 3.5: 100, Under 3.5: -130	Under 3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Michael Morales -11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 3.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Michael Morales is favored to win due to his recent performances and youth, but Gilbert Burns' experience could make it a competitive fight.

Predicted Score: Morales by Decision

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Elise Reed vs. Denise Gomes Prediction	Denise Gomes Win	-600	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales Prediction	Michael Morales Win	-850	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Yadier DelValle vs. Connor Matthews Prediction	Yadier DelValle Win	-500	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: -177

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $31.29