Match Analysis: Michael Aswell vs Lucas Almeida – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 2:00 PM UTC
• Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

Michael Aswell and Lucas Almeida face off at UFC Rio in a featherweight bout. Almeida is the more experienced fighter with a longer reach and higher age, while Aswell is younger and exhibits higher striking output. The fight will likely hinge on Aswell's volume striking and ability to avoid Almeida's counters.

Key Factors to Consider

• Almeida holds a 15-4 record with moderate striking accuracy (39%) and defense (44%). Aswell, younger at 25, has a 10-3 record with superior striking volume (9.1 significant strikes/min) and accuracy (44%), and better strike defense (54%). Almeida is more conservative but durable, Aswell more aggressive.
• No direct H2H matchups between Almeida and Aswell to date, so prediction is based on comparative statistical analysis and stylistic matchups.
• No reported injuries to either fighter leading into this bout.
• Fight takes place in Brazil, Almeida’s home country, which might give him crowd support and motivation. Aswell is the younger fighter traveling internationally but maintains composure in high-pressure UFC events.
• Almeida seeks to consolidate his featherweight status with a high-profile win on home soil at UFC Rio. Aswell aims to build momentum as a young rising contender with a powerful striking style.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Lucas Almeida: +114, Michael Aswell: -135	Michael Aswell	★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread	Lucas Almeida (+3.5): -195, Michael Aswell (-3.5): +140	Michael Aswell -3.5	★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -175, Under 2.5 rounds: +135	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Lucas Almeida -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 34%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Michael Aswell to win by decision

Predicted Score: Michael Aswell wins by unanimous decision after three rounds

Match Analysis: Bolaji Oki vs Michael Aswell – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-31
• Time: 11:10 PM UTC
• Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada

Game Overview

Bolaji Oki and Michael Aswell face off in a highly anticipated MMA match at UFC Vegas 107. Bolaji Oki was originally scheduled to fight Mederos, but due to Mederos's withdrawal, Aswell has stepped in. This change adds an element of unpredictability to the fight.

Key Factors to Consider

• Bolaji Oki has been a hyped prospect from the Dana White Contender Series, though he has experienced setbacks. Michael Aswell, a former DWCS cast-off, offers a fresh challenge.
• There is no previous head-to-head data available for these fighters.
• No specific injury reports are available for either fighter at this time.
• The late change in opponents could impact Bolaji Oki's strategy and preparation.
• Both fighters are motivated to win, with Bolaji Oki seeking to redeem himself and Michael Aswell looking to prove his worth.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-365 / 300	Bolaji Oki	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	-150 / 120	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Bolaji Oki -99%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -99%

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Bolaji Oki is favored to win, based on his prior profile and performance expectations.

Predicted Score: Bolaji Oki by decision